The Cyprus Human Resources Development Authority (CDDA), in the context of its systematic long-term forecasting of the sectors of economic activity and occupations of the Cypriot economy, completed the study "Labour demand and supply projections in the Cypriot economy 2022-2032", which, for the first time, includes labour supply projections.
The main purpose of the study is to provide forecasts for both labour demand and labour supply in the Cypriot economy over the period 2022-2032. Demand projections are provided for the sectors of economic activity (3 broad sectors, 21 main sectors and 52 sectors) and 309 occupations (173 upper-level occupations, 130 medium-level occupations and 6 lower-level occupations). Supply projections are provided for the economy as a whole, by gender and by level of education.
Total employment in the period 2022-2032 is projected to show an upward trend despite the impact of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. The annual total labour demand of the Cypriot economy in the period 2022-2032 will amount to 11,666 persons or 2.5%. New jobs are projected to amount to 5,258 persons or 1.1% per year and will be lower than the employment needs due to permanent withdrawals from the labour market, which will amount to 6,408 persons or 1.4% per year. This will result in 8 out of 10 employees working in the tertiary sector, maintaining the very high dependence of the Cypriot economy on services.
The largest overall needs will be in the retail sector, arising from the projected growth of the Cypriot economy. This is followed, with large overall employment needs, by the education sector, as an increase in investment in this sector is expected, especially in higher education, and further promotion of lifelong learning, mainly through the National Lifelong Learning Strategy 2021-2027. Equally important are expected to be the overall needs in Health and Social Care, due to the continued ageing of the population, which creates increased needs for medical and social care for the residents of Cyprus, as well as for the smooth functioning of the General Health System. Significant overall employment needs will be recorded in Construction as well as in Public Administration and Defence, mainly due to retirements (86%). The Restaurants and Hotels sectors will also experience significant demand for labour, due to the government's policy to extend the tourist season and to further promote and enrich Cyprus' tourism product. The overall employment needs in wholesale trade as well as in legal and accounting activities will also be high. In addition, there are also large overall needs in Information Technology, where 80% of the needs will come from the creation of new jobs linked to the digital transformation of the Cypriot economy.
An increase in the number of employees is foreseen in all three broad occupational categories. Almost half of those employed will continue to work in medium-level occupations, i.e. occupations requiring a secondary school leaving certificate, while around 4 in 10 will be employed in upper-level occupations, i.e. occupations requiring a higher education degree. It is noted that the growth rate of employment in upper-level occupations will be higher than the growth rates in middle-level occupations and lower-level occupations that do not require any qualification.
The largest overall employment needs, in the period 2022-2032, will be observed in shopkeepers and salespersons, which are linked to the projected growth of the Cypriot economy. They are followed, with large annual total needs, by domestic helpers, cleaners, cleaners, laundry and ironers, service workers and accounting and business and management assistants. It should be noted that the demand for service employees will mainly come from the expected growth in the hotel and restaurant sector, as a large proportion of these employees are employed in this sector, while the demand for accountants and management assistants is linked to the good demand prospects for the legal and accounting sector. There will also be a high overall demand for teachers, due to increased investment in the education sector, and for construction workers, due to the promotion of various development projects. There will also be significant overall needs for doctors, nurses and other health specialists, related to the continuing ageing of the population and the smooth functioning of the General Health System, as well as for information and communication technology specialists, due to the digital transformation of the Cypriot economy. It is noted that Information and Communication Technology Specialists and Information and Communication Technology Technicians will experience the highest rates of total employment needs over the period 2022-2032.
The total economically active population aged 15-64 will continue to show an increasing trend over the period 2022-2032.
The total economically active population aged 15-64 will continue to show an increasing trend over the period 2022-2032. The economically active population aged 15-64 is projected to show an annual increase of 4,149 persons or 0.9%. This will result in a continuation of the upward trend in the labour market participation rate of the population aged 15-64, which will rise from 76.5% in 2022 to 80.6% in 2032.
The increase in the economically active population aged 15-64 will come to a much greater extent from the economically active female population aged 15-64 compared to the increase from the economically active male population aged 15-64. On the basis of this projected picture, by 2032 the economically active female population aged 15-64 will reach the same level as the economically active male population aged 15-64. It should be noted that this trend is due to the much higher increase in the female population compared to the corresponding increase in the male population (Eurostat population projections "Europop2019").
The majority of the economically active population aged 15+ will continue to have a tertiary education, with a large increase over the period 2022-2032. As a result, in 2032, about 6 out of 10 will have tertiary education, 1 out of 3 will have up to post-secondary non-tertiary education and almost 1 out of 10 will have up to lower secondary education.
In conclusion, the study contains useful data and information, which help to illustrate the future situation in the Cypriot labour market in relation to labour demand and supply. It is expected that the findings and conclusions of the study will be used in making appropriate policy decisions. In addition, the study is used by many public and private agencies and institutions, by people involved in the broad issue of human resource planning and career guidance for young people, and by the public in general.
The study and its summary as well as the detailed results of the projections can be found at AnAD website.
(ΕΠ/ΣΧ)
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