How do you judge the electoral scene so far? Obviously it will change but at the moment how do you see it?
As far as the context is concerned, i.e. the current electoral contest judged on its own today, I would say that on the one hand the electoral scene is beginning to take shape in terms of candidates and party alliances and on the other hand it remains fluid in terms of the dynamics of the candidates. Let us not forget that we are eight months away from the elections, a very long time, especially in politics. Fluidity is almost a structural feature of electoral politics in Cyprus now, and in this case, it is exacerbated by the serious shifts that have occurred in the Cypriot social formation, political system and political culture in recent years, starting with the accession of Cyprus to the EU, the referendum on the Annan plan and later with the consequences of the economic crisis. The main characteristic of this fluid situation is the distancing of voters from the parties and their self-identification from traditional party identifications.
Do you identify common elements or changes in relation to previous election periods?
In terms of time, i.e. comparison with the past, I would identify both elements of continuity and differentiation in relation to the past.
In terms of time, i.e. comparison with the past, I would identify both elements of continuity and differentiation in relation to the past. And I mean on very basic issues because there are certainly more continuities and changes. The main continuity of this electoral period is the re-formation of a tripartite formation where the three main emerging candidates, and regardless of the personal ideological origins of the candidates themselves, seem to be supported, apart from the unexpected, each of them from one of the three main poles of Cypriot political life: left, centre, right. This is something that has been observed in the last three election campaigns (2008, 2013 and 2018).
The main changes of this long election campaign, which should be seen more on a continuum than as a sharp break with the past that simply appears in these elections, I would say are three: first, the reduced power with which the main party formations enter the campaign, as a result of their reduced electoral influence. Secondly, the readiness of Cypriot society and the Cypriot electorate to accept a different type of candidate. And thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, the growing distance between the two worlds, as I like to say, schematically, of Cypriot society. On the one hand, the microcosm of those who make up the political staff, together with analysts and journalists, and on the other hand, the vast majority of the people who do not actively participate in the political process, without this necessarily implying depoliticisation. This distinction between these two groups allows, among other things, populist schemes and narratives to find space.
In terms of candidates, the finalisation of AKEL's decision is essentially pending. What is your opinion of AKEL's choice of Mr Mavroyiannis in principle?
I consider the pendency to be formal rather than substantial. I expect that the internal party procedures will soon be completed with the ratification of the party's CE's proposal to the base. The hard part will begin after the decision is made, since the ground must first be covered within the party by achieving sufficient rallying, which will not be easy, and then people outside the party must be persuaded to vote. And all this with a starting point of the lowest percentage in the party's history, which, even if its rallying target is achieved, is not certain to lead in itself to the second round.
I identify four elements in this decision without going into any value judgment. The first is that the choice of Mavroyiannis seems to mark a return to AKEL's policy of selecting candidates from the wider centre-right, a choice previously made by the party with the exception of the last three presidential elections. This choice is based on the logic, understanding and assumption that Cypriot society is fundamentally conservative and right-wing and therefore the likelihood of success is greater with such a candidate. It also marks an attempt by the AKEL leadership to return to the traditional policy of alliances rather than "heroic isolation", which was considered to be better served by a Mavroyiannis candidacy than a Demetriades candidacy.
The second element is the semantics of this choice in relation to the Cyprus problem. The Mavroyiannis candidacy points to a change, a shift in AKEL's narrative on the Cyprus issue compared to what the party has stood for in recent years. A shift that is in line with the majority view of Cypriot society in relation to the responsibilities for the non-solution of the Cyprus problem and that allows the party to appeal with more chances to audiences beyond the one that adopts a specific narrative on the Cyprus problem.
My third observation relates to the process followed, which left a picture that Mr Mavroyiannis was not the first and best choice, but a choice of necessity and after the first and desired scenarios did not come to fruition. Finally, I note the criteria that seem to have been prioritised over and above what was universally accepted within the party for the need to change the current administration. The impression given is that the debate was, to some extent, juxtaposed between two key criteria. On the one hand, electability and on the other hand, purity not in ideological terms, but in Cypriot terms and with content in that purity which I would say has been given in recent years rather than over time. The result shows that issues of eligibility, especially in the second round, and the possibility of alliances were prioritised higher than the insistence on a specific narrative on the Cyprus problem.
This discussion refers of course to another much larger discussion concerning the character and identity of the party, but this discussion is not the present one. What emerges as a picture is the party's need to be close to the government as a party of power that influences decisions and situations rather than positioning itself as a party of protest or radical social transformation. All of the above recorded observations involve both positive and negative recruitment and influences. And everything will be judged by the final result of course.
I would like your comment on the fact that the dominant candidates are close associates of President Anastasiades.
I think there is a gradation in the nature of the relationship of all three with the President of the Republic and certainly the relationship of Mr. Mavroyiannis is the least political relationship given that he was a technocrat in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and not a sitting politician and party person. But it does not cease to create an image based on an existing reality, since all three have worked closely with the President in recent years. Nor is the relationship between the other two candidates exactly the same, of course, with the President since their cooperation was based on different areas. But it is also an implicit admission of the hegemony of the broader right in Cyprus in Gramscian terms. But this is nothing new.
Further to the previous question, don't you think it is an oxymoron for opposition parties to support partners of a President whom they denounce on a number of issues?
At first glance it does indeed create the connotation you note. And it should be explained and justified by both the parties and the candidates themselves in a convincing manner. Of course, there is something subtle that seems to justify this act to a certain extent, which of course has nuances. By gradations I mean to what extent and on what issues each candidate and each party can justify this act and its differentiation from the existing government. The subtle issue I mentioned is, in my view, the fact that the main "accused" by all opposition forces, the one who was mostly under fire, was and remains the President and not necessarily on issues of the portfolio handled by his current candidate associates. This is normal to a certain extent, given the country's strong presidential system where much depends on the president himself, but at the same time it is a condition that allows the opposition parties to distance and separate the responsibilities of the president himself from his former associates and current candidates. Distancing themselves from the President can be adopted, if they so choose, of course, by the candidates themselves. I repeat, however, the parties will have to explain their choice, especially in relation to their criticisms of the portfolios handled by the candidates they are now supporting.
Either way, however, the broader centre-right from whose pool all three main candidates come has never been politically and socially homogeneous either. I would even venture to say that the fissures within it have been multiple and more pronounced than on the left, which has over time allowed the left to cooperate with parts of the right and centre-right. If we also take a look back at the recent past alone, we will also see last-minute differentiations between partners as well as changes in the direction of parties. Clerides-Markidis, Papadopoulos-Christofias to name just a few very recent ones. Obviously these are not only related to personal ambitions but also to underlying differences that existed during a presidential term and which are always expressed and magnified during election periods.
The end of President Anastasiades' term marks the departure of the last of the previous generation of politicians.
The end of President Anastasiades' term marks the departure of the last of the previous generation of politicians. How do you see the next day?
The older generation of politicians, and let's use that term, had the advantage of establishing themselves in an era more tolerant of politics and politicians, more politics-friendly if you like, and in which they enjoyed a considerable prestige among the people. Something that has changed dramatically in recent years with the media, particularly the new social media and the wider changes in the political culture of Cypriots. These changes, taken together, make the younger generation of politicians more politically expendable than the previous one. There is much more questioning of politicians and politics now, to the point where it has become the norm rather than the exception. The current president's generation of politicians was "brought up" and trained politically in a context of intense politicization and tension that sometimes led to violence. An era in which it was defined by the Cyprus problem, the coup and the invasion in the main, but also by the struggle of EOKA, the creation of the Cypriot state, the intercommunal conflicts and the intense left-right division. The previous generation carries in its DNA all this historical, conflictual legacy which sometimes works positively in terms of knowledge of facts and situations, but sometimes also negatively, as it sometimes becomes a prisoner of this past.
We are now heading towards a change of paradigm in political life with other types of political figures. Less leading, less partisan and often, unfortunately, less political. More technocratically oriented and more expendable.
What do you think is at stake in the elections? What is it that citizens rank high in their choices?
First I would like to note a relative fallacy in relation to elections. I refer to the overestimation of the degree to which presidential elections can change the situation. I say this not to diminish their importance, nor to adopt patterns of futility in terms of participation, but to place these elections in a context and to ground them, if you like, in existing reality, at least in my personal view. What do I mean? That the Republic of Cyprus, being a member of the EU, does not have the leeway and the ability to pursue an independent policy on many issues even if it wishes to do so. This therefore affects and limits the policies that a Cypriot government of any ideological hue can implement.
Having noted this as a context, I would say that the main stakes for citizens in these elections revolve around their daily lives and their economic survival, or improvement, depending on their economic and social situation. The economy in its multiple facets, at least as we speak and probably for the next period of time, will be the main issue and criterion of the citizens' vote. Secondarily, I would note the issues of corruption and the rule of law. For political parties, the key stakes are the conditions of their survival and continuity within the emerging and fluid party and political system. Hence they prioritise participation in government as the most important issue.
To what do you attribute the horizontal acceptance of Nikos Christodoulides among citizens from almost all political parties? Is it a question of political behaviour or does it have more to do with the image that citizens seek?
It has to do with both in my opinion. In a context of aversion and lack of trust towards political parties as the main bearers and managers of political power, different criteria for evaluating political figures and different standards of politics and politicians are now emerging in Cyprus as well. I am not saying that it necessarily reflects the reality in terms of the actual relationship of certain individuals with parties, but the intuition or image of citizens and society in terms of this relationship or the gradation of one's relationship and dependence on parties. I would focus not only on Mr Christodoulides but on a new social reality in Cyprus, where characteristics such as non-identification with party formations and specific personal characteristics of the individual such as politeness and non-confrontational speech are more prominent. It is also part of a larger debate that is also linked to the failures of political parties and the political system and inevitably affects political and electoral behaviour. And of course not to forget that the assessment in opinion polls does not necessarily reflect the vote, but obviously gives indications.
Do you share the view that the election result may signal changes in the political scene, perhaps even at the party level?
Yes, it is a very plausible working hypothesis. Especially if we take into account that the party and political scene in Cyprus is already on the move, i.e. has been in the process of change for some years now, some of which have already been reflected in the reduced electoral and political influence of the parties in the last two or three parliamentary elections. Particularly with regard to the forthcoming presidential elections, and depending on the outcome, it is possible that conditions will be created for accelerating or slowing down the changes that are already taking place. To give an example, if the measurements so far are verified, there is a scenario that one of the major parties will not pass its candidate in the second round, with all that this implies for its prospects and the broader balance of the party system.
In other European countries we see historical parties slipping away. Is it a consequence of the changes taking place in society that some parties are unable to manage? To what do you attribute it?
It is a consequence of both processes to which you indirectly referred in your question. It is a consequence of a double process that is taking place in all societies, not excluding the Cypriot one. On the one hand, societies have been changing dramatically and at an accelerating pace in recent decades and especially since the end of the cold war. These economic, social and political processes, which can be put under the umbrella of terms such as globalisation, liberalisation and European integration, have taken away many of the tools of action of parties, governments and states. This has dramatically changed the parties' framework for action. On the other hand, political parties themselves have failed to manage what is changing, to find their place in this changing environment and to be able to mobilise people on new terms. It is a two-way process to which the traditional parties in particular have not always found the answers. For different reasons each one.
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