By Nicolas Petros Kaparti
The facts remain ambiguous for reaching a new agreement between employers and trade unions on ATA, by Christmas, with Kyriakos Kousios leaving both sides in limbo as to the framework and dates for the next round of consultations. After the prolonged gap of recent weeks, it seems that a ray of optimism is being added to the equation, with employers' organisations changing their stance and abandoning their "hard line" on the complete abolition of the ATA.
According to the Cyprus Times, due to the steadfast stance of the employers' organisations, Kyriakos Kousios has made behind-the-scenes contacts with employers in order for them to exert some pressure and influence KEBE and OEB to put water in their wine so that a new agreement can be reached before the turn of the year.
Indeed, as we learn, these contacts and pressures have borne fruit to some extent, since the employers' organisations are now open to discussing the possibility of leaving the ATA rate as it is (at 50%), where they wanted to abolish it completely.
A relevant source told the Cyprus Times that following this development as well, the minister is expected to enter into a new round of separate consultations with employers' and trade union organisations next week, followed by a joint meeting with the social partners early in the Christmas week.
However, the timeframe set by Kyriakos Kousios for reaching an agreement by Christmas is starting to get tight given that the current week was "lost" due to the absence of the minister and trade union representatives abroad
2+1 the possible scenarios
From there, the most likely scenarios on the table are three, with only one of them being positive, but it is possible that at the end of the day the most likely one will prevail.
Specifically, in the event that this minor setback on the part of employers' organisations is confirmed, Mr Kousios is expected to put on the table a proposal that will be mutually acceptable to both parties. This proposal is expected to provide for the ATA to remain at 50% for a period of two years and for a dialogue to reach a new agreement by the end of that period. Also included in this proposal will be the condition to restore the ATA tariff to the even level (100%), in case a new agreement is not signed by the end of these two years.
Otherwise - i.e. if there is no agreement between the two sides - it is not excluded that the Minister, as mediator, will declare a deadlock in the efforts being made. Such an eventuality would bring two possible developments.
In the first case the ATA would remain as it is (50%) - based on the agreement signed in 2017 - and the labour dispute would continue to exist indefinitely until the new government finds a way to bridge the gap between the two sides.
In the second case, each side will proceed unilaterally and claim their "wants" separately based on the contracts that exist in each professional sector. Of course, such a development, as explained to us by a competent source from the trade unions, would trigger a joint reaction of the trade unions, which would most likely proceed to joint escalating strike measures.
Therefore, any development is expected to occur after mid-December.
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Views & opinions expressed are those of the author and/or Cyprus Times
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