Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week unleashed week a series of airstrikes against Kurdish militants in northern Syria and warned that a ground operation would soon follow. The Turkish president said the strikes were "only the beginning" and that the Turkish armed forces "will overthrow the terrorists from the ground at the most appropriate time."
Earlier on Wednesday, the Defense Ministry claimed that 471 targets had been hit and that "254 terrorists have been neutralized" since the start of the offensive, which has been dubbed "Operation Fucking Sword." But Erdogan has been committed to invading northern Syria since May. He said then that the invasion was aimed at creating a 30-kilometer-deep "safe zone" that would be evacuated by militants allied with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Turkey and the U.S. consider a terrorist organization.
Russia's green light
Analysts said Erdogan had abandoned the plan to invade because he had not secured the green light from Vladimir Putin, as Russia has a large military presence in Syria. But on Wednesday, senior Russian negotiator Alexander Lavrentiev said Moscow had tried to persuade Turkey to "refrain from conducting full-scale ground operations".
The northern Syrian region of interest to Erdogan includes the three key cities of Manbij, Tel Rifaat and Kobani, which are under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The Washington-backed SDF had been instrumental in the fight against ISIS since 2014. But their backbone is the Kurdish militia "People's Protection Units" (YPG), which Turkey considers a wing of the PKK.
CNN asked Soner Chagaptai, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, how likely the Turkish leader is to keep his promise this time.
Turkey has said it will launch its next invasion months ago. Are today's claims different or more serious?
I think that considering the previous Turkish incursions into northern Syria, this time, something doesn't seem to be moving so fast. Usually, Turkish incursions follow a day or two of cross-border artillery bombardment and drone strikes, and then the military moves on.
This time, the cross-border artillery bombardment and drone strikes have been going on for almost a week, and there has been no ground action. So that means something is missing.
How do you see the Kremlin's recent comments about a possible invasion? Do you see it as a green light?
Now for Turkey to invade northern Syria, it needs to get the green light from the two superpowers that are militarily present in the country, namely the US and Russia.
I think Russia wants more before giving the green light for a full-scale Turkish invasion. What Russia wants is for the Turkish government in Ankara to engage in some kind of understanding with the Assad regime and commit to ending the war.
And of course, that kind of discussion will take days, if not weeks and months. So I think that until we see that kind of discussion mature and come to a conclusion, Putin will not give the green light for a Turkish invasion.
Given Turkey's growing importance to the West in the midst of the war in Ukraine, is it likely that Western states will turn a blind eye to an invasion?
The US has typically opposed Turkish invasions because they target the YPG. The US has relied on the YPG to fight ISIS. So it is never happy when Turkey targets the YPG.
But this time, things are different. First, the big strategic picture is changing. Turkey's importance to the US has changed as Washington's foreign policy shifts from the Middle East to the Eurasian steppe, or from Syria to Ukraine.
So, in the US perspective, Turkey's strategic importance is upgraded. This is the long-term shift.
In the short term, there is also the "tactical" perspective in Washington, which is related to the fact that Turkey has opposed NATO's expansion into the Nordic countries. I think Ankara has negotiated its position well by objecting to Sweden's membership.
And so right now, Washington doesn't really want to upset Turkey. And I think this is true for all of NATO's key allies.
Source: in.gr
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