Why does the Russian political elite continue to "blindly" obey Vadim Putin? Despite the devastating effect of the sanctions on the Russian economy, there is still no indication that they will translate into a political change in Russia, according to many Western diplomatic sources
Despite the global outcry and the unprecedented sanctions against his country, President Vladimir Putin can, for now, count on the support of the Russian political elite, which is fighting for "its survival".
Russian artists and media figures denounced the Russian invasion of Ukraine - even some oligarchs were heard to offer veiled criticism. But after nearly a month of war, there appears to be no controversy within Vladimir Putin's inner circle or among politicians with a weighty opinion in the country.
"There was no evidence of a split" within the Russian political elite, says Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R. Politik, a biweekly analysis of Russian politics. "There is a real consensus, however possibly with strategic differences," she underlines."
She refers to the difference between having reservations about the invasion and being ready to act.
"People are in a state of shock and many think it is wrong. But no one is capable of acting. Everyone is focused on their own survival," Stanovaya adds.
Despite the devastating effect of the sanctions on the Russian economy, there is no indication yet that they will translate into a political change in Russia, according to many Western diplomatic sources.
According to Tatiana Stanovaya, the main criticism of the invasion of Ukraine comes from "regional" forces originating from the nationalist far right who believe the invasion is not going fast enough.
"Too scared"
Russian state television continues to broadcast the official speech: Russia is conducting a "special military operation", a heroic mission against the Western invasion.
The liberal opposition has disappeared, the parties represented in parliament almost always toe the Kremlin's line on all issues, and opposition figure Alexei Navalny, a sworn enemy of the Kremlin, is in jail.
"It is not really surprising that there has not been a radical split within the political elite," opines Ben Noble, an assistant professor at University College London.
"Vladimir Putin has maintained a system in which he is surrounded by people who are very loyal to him and who share his views that the West wants to destroy Russia or by others who are too afraid to express any challenge," he adds.
On February 21, three days before he unleashed the invasion, Putin convened the Security Council to ask their opinion on the next step after Russia recognized the independence of Ukraine's pro-Russian separatists and ordered his army to enter those territories.
The meeting was broadcast on Russian television, an unusual practice.
One by one, marching from a podium in a theatrical performance, 12 men and one woman voiced their support for recognition of the pro-Russian areas of eastern Ukraine, now seen as a precursor to war.
Present at this parade from the podium were three men who, according to Western security sources, constitute Putin's inner circle: defence minister Sergei Shoigu, Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev and the head of the powerful security services (FSB) Aleksandr Bortnikov.
There was not the slightest whisper of controversy among the participants in that Security Council, nor also on the part of more junior officers.
"Fifth Column"
On March 16, in an aggressive speech before his televised cabinet, the Russian president defended his military operation in Ukraine and compared the West and its sanctions against Russia to the Nazis during World War II.
As he said, "the empire of lies" consisting of countries, media and Western social media will want to rely on "a fifth column of ethnic traitors" in order to achieve their anti-Russian goals. "Any people, the Russian people in particular, will always be able to recognize the syphilis and traitors, to spit them out like a fly in the mouth," Putin had said.
The only one from the inner circle, current and past, to express his opposition is a former Kremlin adviser and former deputy prime minister (from 2012 to 2018), Arkady Dvorkovich, who resigned as head of a public financial institution after criticizing the attack on Ukraine in an interview with the US magazine Mother Jones.
Dvorkovich, 49, is also president of the International Chess Federation (FIDE), a sport in which Russia retains considerable influence.
But on the part of other Kremlin figures - such as former finance minister Alexei Kudrin who is now head of Russia's Court of Accounts - the silence has been complete.
The fate of the head of the Russian Central Bank, economist Elvira Nabiulina, is also under investigation. She was photographed looking dejected at a meeting in the Kremlin and posted a cryptic video admitting that the Russian economy is in an "extreme" state, adding: "We all wish this hadn't happened."
But Vladimir Putin asked parliament this week to renew her term, apparently denying rumours that she might resign in protest at the war.
Rumours also surrounded oligarchs who stand to lose a great deal because of the invasion, such as Oleg Deripaska and Mikhail Friedman, both of whom made cautious pro-peace comments.
Ben Noble points out that for many members of the Russian elite the invasion was a shock because the vast majority of them "were not involved in the [DECISION-MAKING] process" and believed that Putin's purpose was only to extract concessions from the West, not to launch an invasion.
"However, it is one thing to make calls for peace - and it is another to criticise Putin head-on," he concludes.
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