"Why not kick Turkey out of NATO? Sounds like an excellent idea - especially after a few drinks after the defence alliance meeting."...
There is no doubt that Tayyip Erdogan is an infuriating ally, writes Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times.
After withdrawing his objections to Finland and Sweden's NATO membership last week, the Turkish president immediately raised fresh doubts, hinting that Turkey's parliament would not approve the deal unless Sweden extradited 73 people whom Turkey accuses of terrorism.
The judicial system... Erdogan dreams of Scandinavia
Handing over any individual to the mercy of Erdogan's judicial system is something any democracy can hardly accept. Selahatin Demirtas, a Kurdish politician and leading figure in the Turkish opposition, has been in prison since 2016, despite a ruling by the European Court of Human Rights that he should be released immediately and that his imprisonment "is merely a cover for an ulterior political purpose."
His case is not an isolated example. Osman Kavala, a businessman and philanthropist, was jailed for life without parole in April for allegedly plotting a coup. The evidence against him was so weak that it prompted protests from Western governments, human rights organisations and the European Court of Human Rights. Seven defenders of Kavala, including Hakan Altinai, a prominent academic, were jailed for 18 years on highly controversial evidence.
The close relationship with Putin
[BR][BR]Erdogan's behaviour raises uncomfortable questions for NATO. The alliance says it is based on protecting democracy and human rights. But jailing political opponents on trumped-up charges is something Vladimir Putin would do. The truth is that the Turkish and Russian leaders have long had a close relationship.
Bringing Finland and Sweden into NATO would be a big blow to Putin. It would mean that NATO would include every country with a border in the Baltic Sea except Russia. Turkey's tactics express a cynical disregard for the Baltic countries - NATO allies - who face an existential threat.
Erdogan's willingness to blackmail NATO over Finland and Sweden also raises doubts about how Turkey might behave in future crises. Article 5 - the collective defence clause at the heart of the alliance that could trigger a Russian attack - relies on unanimous voting.
"Strategic disaster" withdrawal from NATO
So would it be in NATO's interest for Turkey to withdraw? Absolutely not. Turkey's expulsion, even if it were legally possible, would amount to a strategic disaster. The Black Sea is the main gateway to the Mediterranean and the rest of the world for both Ukraine and Russia.
It is only through the Black Sea that Ukrainian grain can leave the country's ports for international markets, and Turkey controls the passage. The seizure of a Russian ship allegedly carrying stolen grain from Ukraine demonstrates Turkey's crucial role in this matter.
If Turkey were expelled from NATO and became a de facto ally of Russia, Ukraine would become an enclave and Russia would be at the gates of the Mediterranean.
The defense balance in the Middle East would be significantly complicated. The Turks have a large military presence inside Syria. Although they have clashed with the Americans over the role of the Kurds, they oppose Russia's alliance with the Assad regime. The Turks have also sheltered 3.7 million Syrian refugees.
"Not a threat to NATO countries - Maybe only to Greece."
There is no doubt that Erdogan has tarnished Turkey's democratic credentials. But, unlike Russia, Turkey is not a security threat to NATO countries, except perhaps in the case of Greece, which has been alarmed by Erdogan's show of force in the Aegean, opines the Financial Times columnist, who apparently does not consider Greece's security threat particularly significant, even though it is also a NATO member country...
"Given the extreme importance for NATO of dealing with Russia, it is more crucial than ever that Turkey remains an ally," he insists.
Erdogan knows this. He is using the bargaining power that the war in Ukraine has given him. The situation is infuriating but manageable. The Turkish leader is perfectly capable of changing his position whenever it suits him. The other NATO members also have bargaining power over Turkey that they can use.
The collapsing Turkish economy is a bargaining chip for NATO
The weakness of the Turkish economy gives the other NATO members some countervailing bargaining power over Erdogan.
Inflation in Turkey is now around 80%, largely due to Erdogan's own mismanagement. The Turkish currency has depreciated more than 60% in the last two years.
The country is facing a huge current account deficit and has repeatedly been told that it will be forced to seek a bailout from the IMF. This would be a humiliation for Erdogan, ahead of presidential elections in 2023.
To avoid economic disaster, Turkey will likely need foreign support. That is where NATO allies could help.
In exchange for receiving economic support, Turkey could adopt a more responsible attitude towards Finland and Sweden's NATO membership.
"And if this looks like an oriental bargain, that's fine," concludes the Financial Times columnist."
Source.gr
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