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Vladimir Putin's next moves in Ukraine, hours after the US and EU recognized the autonomy of the so-called "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk and imposed sanctions against Russia, analysts around the world are trying to "read".
At the same time, Biden and Western leaders insist that "a Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely within the next 48 hours," while Putin "defends" his decision on Donbass, saying it was the product of belligerent provocations by Kiev, adding that any new "military intervention" in eastern Ukraine will only happen if "Russia is threatened." Late on Wednesday afternoon, in fact, the Ukrainian parliament approved a state of emergency in the country, which is activated as of midnight.
Against this background, Reuters presents three possible scenarios for Putin's next step and the evolution of the crisis on the Russian-Ukrainian border.
He has achieved his goals and will seek expansion
Contrary to analysts' belief that the Russian "peacekeeping forces" as Putin described them going to Donbass herald a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, others say this may be the last military move by Russia, which will then seek to pressure Ukraine by other means.
"Putin has already achieved something. He can claim victory when he appeals to his domestic audience," the British author of the book "Little Green Men: Putin's Wars Since 2014," Tim Ripley. Still, he stresses that the most likely next Russian steps do not involve occupying other territories, but rather exerting pressure in other ways, such as a naval blockade of Ukrainian ports to the Black Sea. In this way it would intimidate Kiev and show Zelensky that he cannot secure substantial assistance from the West.
At the same time, Moscow has already heard Biden pledge not to send troops to protect Ukraine, while it has gained "space" in Belarus to "set up" a large number of military forces there.
"Belarus was a big move aimed at changing the balance of power in the region. It completely transforms the methods NATO should use to defend the Baltic states," Ripley observes.
It will provoke conflict in eastern Ukraine to expand the extent of the breakaway regions
Given that the separatists in eastern Ukraine control less than half the area of the two provinces they claim, Russia has the ability to attempt to expand the breakaway regions without carrying out a massive invasion. Moscow's signals in recent hours have caused confusion over the exact area they have recognized as autonomous.
Putin's sights could be set on Mariupol, eastern Ukraine's most important port, the capture of which would enable Moscow to create a land bridge between Crimea and the separatist enclaves and secure full control of the coast of the Sea of Azov.
However, a military intervention for this particular region of eastern Ukraine would provoke new reactions and possibly harsher sanctions, with limited strategic gains. "Taking six villages outside Donetsk changes nothing," Ripley says."
Going to full invasion
A massive invasion of Ukraine's territories has been the constant warning of Western nations, particularly the US, Britain and Germany in recent weeks, and today Biden spoke of a "possible invasion within the next 48 hours. Analysts "interpreted" Putin's speech on Monday night as evidence that he would not stop short of seeing a new government in Ukraine that recognizes Russia's role as "hegemon."
"It is possible that Putin is thinking about much more than taking possession of a chunk of eastern Ukraine and formally assuming responsibility for areas he already controlled," wrote Guardian journalist Sean Walker. "Putin's words that if Kiev did not stop the violence then it would bear responsibility for the bloodshed that would follow were terribly ominous sounded like a declaration of war," he added.
"He wants to redefine Europe's borders" says Stoltenberg
Amid all this, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg came out today during a seminar in the Netherlands to stress that Putin's goal is none other than to redefine the borders in Europe and "rewrite the entire global security architecture."
"There is a lot at stake in the current crisis. The risk of conflict is real. Russia is using violence and ultimatums not only to redraw borders in Europe, but to try to rewrite the entire global security architecture," he said, and the world continues to watch developments with bated breath
Source: Proto Thema
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