One of the most difficult things today is to understand how the balance of power in the war in Ukraine is evolving. To a large extent this is due to the way information about war operations is organized, which largely takes the form of competing narratives, sometimes with elements of reality construction.
On the one hand, in the statements of the Ukrainian government, including the active and socially active President Zelensky, but also in most Western media, one can discern a certainty that the war will end with a victory for the Ukrainian side and great costs for Russia.
On the other hand, the Russian side insists on quoting data on the strikes it has made, avoiding mentioning why it has changed its tactics, or the losses it has suffered, or the impact of the sanctions, while insisting that the purpose of the "special military operation" has not changed, namely to protect the "people's republics" in Donbass and to "denazify" Ukraine.
A territorial war with a big front
It is clear that the war being waged in Ukraine is at its core a territorial war and even a war of positions. This means that it is a war that is ultimately decided on which territories have been conquered and secured. Obviously, and like any war, it has a character of constant political pressure to make one side or the other retreat, but at its core it is a war that is decided by where the front line shifts.
The Russian plan is to secure a significant part of Ukrainian territory, which includes Donbass - and beyond the areas east of the "line of contact" and important areas in the south, up to and beyond Odessa.
These areas if "liberated" will logically decide that they are gaining sovereignty and then in referendums similar to what was done in Crimea will decide to join the Russian Federation.
This military operation is on a very large front and this explains why there are several places where operations are taking place. The forces of Russia and the "people's republics" are large though not unlimited. On the other side are the Ukrainian forces, quite significant in number but with different levels of combat capability. The Ukrainian forces have a constant reinforcement from the West in small anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, artillery, drones and armoured vehicles.
The form of operations includes the attempt by the Russian side to seize various disputed points and the corresponding attempt by the Ukrainian forces to prevent it. The tactics employed rely heavily on the use of artillery prior to any attacks. The Ukrainian forces in these areas are large, some of them with combat experience and relatively well equipped. In some areas they had formed strong fortified positions. At the same time they are trying to make offensive moves towards the Russian side and occasionally hitting Russian areas near the border.
Russian movement in general is not particularly fast-paced. This is both because of the resistance they encounter and to avoid heavy casualties. At the same time Russia is trying as much as it can to use its stockpile of guided missiles to hit Ukrainian positions, especially positions with a high concentration of weapons.
The Russian move mainly seems to be focused on securing step by step and slowly the objectives it sets in an attempt to expand the areas under its control, to encircle the critical mass of Ukrainian forces operating there and on that basis to negotiate a ceasefire.
The importance of Western assistance
So far, Western involvement in the war has consisted of an impressive supply of equipment, the provision of information (mainly on Russian positions) and possibly the presence of military advisers, in addition to the presence of some mercenaries from Western countries.
Although the rhetoric of the Western governments is a "victory for Ukraine" rhetoric, in reality it is military aid that does not fundamentally change the balance of power, but prolongs the conflict. Obviously they have so far avoided the risk of a more direct engagement, which would threaten to trigger a global conflict, and above all they are hoping for a Russian attrition that would force Russia to change its strategy and eventually retreat and withdraw its forces from Ukrainian territory.
On the other hand, Russia, despite various reports from time to time about how it always includes nuclear weapons in its tactical planning, is unlikely to resort to such moves, and at the same time, although it has targeted storage sites in various parts of Ukraine, it has avoided strikes that would also involve Western personnel who are in one way or another located there.
The significance of the fall of Mariupol
The battle of Mariupol summed up the issues of this war. A slow siege, involving alternations between more aggressive moves and more stagnant ones, and in the end centred on a critical fortified position, where for a long time it was mainly the artillery that took the initiative, and where at one point the Russian planning seemed mainly to want to avoid the possibility of large numbers of civilian casualties.
The fall of the Azovastal industrial complex itself is highly symbolic, while at the same time marking the defeat of the more expert and ideologically militant sections of the Ukrainian armed forces, those who were also inspired by a strongly nationalist (or even far-right) ideology. For the Russian government it is a first opportunity to show that it can win against the "neo-Nazis" and "nationalists" as these Ukrainian units are referred to.
At the same time it secures Russian sovereignty in the southern part of the front and the possibility of transferring forces to other parts of the front. In these the situation - on physically different terrain - points to a tactic similar to Mariupol: concentration of forces and if there is resistance first use of artillery to hit the opposing positions as much as possible before any offensive movement.
Who is time working for?
A crucial question is who is time working for. Western governments in particular seem to believe that it is working for the Zelensky government. Sanctions are increasingly costly for Russia and can always be tightened if the problems in Europe are overcome. The war, the loss of soldiers is generating resentment in Russian society and undermining Putin's popularity and power. The sufficiency of the Russians in terms of equipment is not unlimited and they will soon see that they will not be able to continue operations at the same pace.
On the other hand, however, there are certain parameters that show that time is not necessarily working against Russia. So far the sanctions, which are not global, have not brought the Russian economy to its knees. The rouble is in good shape and energy exports are continuing. Discontent within Russia has not taken on destabilising characteristics, while a legitimisation of the war is maintained in a fairly large part of public opinion. Russia maintains the alliances it had with countries from the former USSR, which was confirmed at the summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, where the leaders of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan participated alongside Vladimir Putin. Beyond the West has not lost the "communication game", as shown by the choice of neutrality of many governments. All this gives room to continue this kind of "slow-paced" warfare for some time, in the hope that it will eventually have similar successes to those in Mariupol and in the other places where the conflict is centred.
Why is the West not talking about "peace"? This means that, for the moment, the dominant factor is the attempt to change the balance of power and defeat Russia. However, it is possible that the way in which the actual balance of power on the ground is evolving will also bring back talk of some kind of peace. The recent communication between Austin and Soygoo in this respect was not only coincidental.
Source: in.gr
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