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Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Monday night his decision to recognize as independent the self-proclaimed "People's Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk", provoking a strong reaction from the West.
But what does Putin's recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk mean? Below is a detailed explanation-interpretation.
What are the seceded regions?
The pro-Russian separatist-controlled regions of Donetsk and Lugansk - known collectively as the Donbas - seceded from the Ukrainian government's administration in 2014 and declared themselves independent "People's Republics", to date unrecognized by any other country.
Since then, Ukraine reports that some 15,000 people have been killed in clashes in the two regions. Russia denies it had any role in the conflict, but has reportedly supported the separatists in various ways, including through covert military support, financial aid, supplying Covid-19 vaccines and issuing Russian passports to some 800,000 residents. Moscow has categorically denied to date that it plans to invade Ukraine.
What does Russia's recognition mean?
For the first time, Russia says it does not consider Donbass part of Ukraine. Therefore it opens the way for Moscow to send military forces to the breakaway regions, arguing that it is intervening as an ally to protect them against Ukraine. Russian MP Alexander Borodai told Reuters last month that the separatists could then turn to Russia to help them take control of areas of Donetsk and Lugansk still under the control of Ukrainian forces. This, of course, would lead to an open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
What is the future of the Minsk peace process?
Russia's recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics" effectively puts an end to the Minsk agreements, which, although not implemented, were seen by all sides (including Russia) as the best chance to resolve the crisis. The agreements provided for a high degree of autonomy for the two specific regions of eastern Ukraine.
How will the West react?
For months, Western countries have been warning Moscow that any incursion of Russian military forces into Ukrainian territory would bring a strong response, including the imposition of severe economic sanctions.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said last week that recognition "would further undermine Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, constitute a flagrant violation of international law, and further call into question Russia's commitment to remain engaged in diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful resolution to this crisis." He also said it would require an "immediate and strong" response from the United States and its allies.
Has Russia recognized other breakaway regions in the past?
Yes, Russia has recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two regions that seceded from Georgia after the 2008 war. It provided them with extensive fiscal support, gave Russian citizenship to the residents, and stationed thousands of troops in these territories.
What are the pros and cons for Moscow?
In the case of Georgia, Russia took advantage of the recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to justify an unlimited military presence in the neighbouring former Soviet republic in an attempt to thwart Georgia's NATO membership ambitions by challenging its full control over its territories. It aspires to do something similar in the case of Ukraine.
On the contrary, Moscow is facing sanctions and international condemnation for abandoning the Minsk process after long proclaiming its commitment to it. At the same time, Russia will be held responsible for two regions devastated by an eight-year war and in need of huge financial aid.
Source: Proto Thema
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