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For months the Kremlin has denied it was planning an invasion of Ukraine and Moscow has called the constant warnings to that effect from Western intelligence agencies "hysterical".
Finally, in the early hours of the morning, Russian President Putin announced in an emergency address a "special military operation" to "protect the people of eastern Ukraine."
The aim is not to occupy Ukrainian territory, he claimed. Moscow will seek to "de-Nazify" Ukraine and "defend" the victims of "genocide," he said.
He warned against any foreign interference, stressing that Moscow will retaliate immediately, with "consequences you have never seen in your history."
International and Russian media reported that Putin had likely taped the declaration of war as early as the beginning of the week, when Russia recognized the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk in eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
A premeditated decision?[/B][BR]"In the video, Putin was dressed in the same suit and tie he wore on Monday, when he delivered a different speech recognizing the two separatist regions in Donbass," the Financial Times writes.
Novaya Gazeta newspaper claimed that the metadata in the video uploaded to the Kremlin's website was created at 7 p.m. on Feb. 21, almost three days before the start of hostilities.
[BR][BR]Other Russian journalists and Eric Toller of the Bellingcat investigative group disagree and point to a possible mistake by the newspaper.
The video uploaded to the Kremlin's website, they say, shows that the file was created late Wednesday night, hours after Vladimir Putin had signaled that Russia "is always open to direct and frank dialogue to find diplomatic solutions to the most complex problems," calling "our interests and the security of our citizens non-negotiable."
In any case, writes Wall Street Journal columnist Stephen Findler, it was the Russian president's hour-long address on Monday and the claims he made against NATO and the United States that "reveal how Putin's vision of the future seeks in many ways to recreate the past."
Violently changing the terms[BR]
Vladimir Putin "wants to renegotiate the end of the Cold War" and "has made it clear that he wants to redraw Europe's post-Cold War security map," notes Fiddler.
At the same time, notes Michael R. Gordon, the WSJ's national security editor, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is "the first major conflict to signal a new order in international politics, with three major powers jockeying for position in ways that threaten America's primacy."
The challenges are different from those faced by the United States and its allies during the Cold War, he points out.
Russia and China have built a thriving partnership based in part on a shared interest in reducing American power.
And unlike the Sino-Soviet bloc of the 1950s, Russia is now a critical supplier of natural gas to Europe.
And China is not a poor, war-ravaged partner, but the world's industrial power with a growing military.
In fact, Gordon points out, the two powers are coordinating to reshape the world order to their advantage, though they do not form a formal alliance.
This emerging order pits the US against two adversaries simultaneously, in geographically disparate parts of the world where America has deep economic and political interests and close partners.
Leaders at 'crossroads'
[BR]"The US's predicament arose in part from Washington's moves at the end of the Cold War," the American columnist points out.
Now, the Biden administration is being asked to make big decisions.
Whether to readjust its priorities, increase defence spending, require allies to contribute more, deploy additional forces abroad and develop different energy sources to reduce Europe's dependence on Moscow.
The era of nuclear arms reduction may be coming to an end, as the US military establishment supports a nuclear arsenal large enough to deter both Russia's formidable nuclear weapons and China's rapidly growing nuclear forces, which are not constrained by any arms control agreement.
The way Biden handles the crisis, which Western officials express fears could turn into the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War II, is expected to have profound implications for his political fortunes and U.S. relations with the world.
This is a double-edged sword.
Very tough sanctions against Russia are also expected to come at a heavy price for Western economies already battered by the energy crisis and inflation.
On the other hand, as Reuters notes, there is concern about the signals that China will take from the attitude of the West and the US in particular towards Russia and how it will interpret them in relation to its own open "front" in Taiwan.
Source: in.gr
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