Recep Tayyip Erdogan[/B] has been on the minds of other world leaders for the past two weeks, NATO and the international press both with his attitude towards Finland and Sweden for joining NATO, and for his outburst against Kyriakos Mitsotakis after his speech to Congress.
At the same time, as the Associated Press notes, the Turkish president announced plans for a new operation in Syria.
The AP analysis of Erdogan's plans points out that the Turkish president appears to be using the country's role as a mediator in the Ukraine war and its ability to veto new NATO members as an opportunity to air various grievances and force other states to take action against organizations the Turkish government considers terrorists, including Kurdish militants.
Enhancing the strongman's image by focusing on international disputes could also resonate domestically as Turkey prepares for elections next year, AP notes.
What does Turkey want?[BR][/B] Turkey, which holds NATO's second-largest military, is pushing Sweden - and to a lesser extent Finland - to crack down on entities Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Threatening to block the two Scandinavian countries from joining the Western military alliance, the Turkish government also wants them to end their alleged support for the People's Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian Kurdish militia.
The PKK is considered a terrorist organization in Turkey, Europe and the United States. It has led an armed insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984 and the conflict has killed tens of thousands of people, AP reported. Turkey says the PKK and the YPG are one and the same.
Turkey is seeking the extradition of wanted terror suspects from Finland and Sweden. The two NATO candidates reject accusations that they support the PKK or other terrorist groups.
Another key demand is the lifting of restrictions on arms sales imposed by several European countries, including Sweden and Finland, on Turkey after it invaded Syria in 2019 to act against the YPG.
Merveh Tahiroglu, the Project on Middle East Democracy's Turkey coordinator, said Erdogan believes NATO needs Turkey, which puts him in a negotiating position.
"They (NATO allies) want to prove to Russia that NATO is more united than ever and that even Erdogan's Turkey will not be able to break that. So Erdogan knows he can get away with it," Tahiroğlu said.
Why is Erdogan threatening Syria now?[BR][/B] Turkey has carried out three major invasions of Syria since 2016, which have strained relations with the United States. Washington views Syrian Kurdish groups as key allies in the fight against Islamic State, but Turkey considers them terrorist organizations.
Erdogan announced plans on Monday for a new Turkish offensive in northern Syria aimed at creating a 30-kilometer-deep safe zone along its southern border. The long-stated goal would be to push the YPG militia away from Turkey's border.
The timing suggests that such an attack could be used to rally nationalist voters while providing an outlet for the momentum created by Turkey's role as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war to advance Ankara's demands in NATO negotiations.
Michael Tanchum, a senior fellow at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy, said the Turkish government believes that its NATO allies do not fully appreciate the threat posed to Turkey by the PKK and its branches.
Close relations with Moscow and Kiev
At the same time, Turkey maintains close relations with both Moscow and Kiev. In the midst of the war in Ukraine, its position "gives Ankara some advantage to try to address these issues that are of great concern to the Turkish Republic," Tanchum said.
But another invasion of Syria, in addition to Turkey's opposition to Sweden and Finland's NATO membership, could shatter the image of "goodwill" that Erdogan built after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to Tahiroglu of the Project on Middle East Democracy.
"It certainly reinforced the idea that many NATO allies had that Turkey is a problematic ally under Erdogan," Tahiroglu said."
Greece's role
[BR][BR][/B] The AP goes on to discuss Greece's role. NATO allies Greece and Turkey are regional rivals with longstanding disagreements on a range of issues, from maritime borders in the eastern Mediterranean to the future of ethnically divided Cyprus, AP recalls.
Tensions between the two countries flared in 2020 over offshore energy rights, the analysis highlighted.
Erdogan was angered by comments made by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during his recent visit to Washington. The AP reports that the Greek prime minister suggested, while speaking to Congress, that the United States should not sell F-16 aircraft to Turkey to avoid creating "a new source of instability" in southeastern NATO.
In response, Erdogan said he would no longer speak with Mitsotakis and would cancel the Strategic Council meeting between the two governments.
Turkey's president referred to hostility with Greece while discussing his opposition to Sweden and Finland's applications for NATO membership. Erdogan said his country made a mistake in approving Greece's rejoining the alliance's military wing in 1980 and is determined not to make the same mistake as Sweden and Finland.
Speaking this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr. Mitsotakis said it would be "a mistake for Turkey to continue to use these (NATO) negotiations to extract benefits for its own national interests," AP points out.
The role of elections[/B][BR]
[/B] Turkey is to hold presidential and parliamentary elections next year no later than June 2023. The raids in Syria to oust the YPG boosted support for Erdogan in previous elections.[/P]The Turkish leader may hope to garner nationalist votes again at a time when the country's economy is in recession, with inflation running at nearly 70 percent, the AP points out.
Erdogan also saw his popularity rise previously when he appeared to stand up to Greece and other Western nations.
"I think his plan at the moment is to prove to his electoral base that he can neutralize the US and NATO allies," Tahiroğlu said. "And he has the ability to do that, to act in that way because these allies have been trying to appease him since the beginning of the war in Ukraine."
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