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The concentration of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine poses many risks for the whole world, even though the US and NATO have pledged not to put their own troops on Ukrainian territory, no matter what.
As Biden said, if American and Russian soldiers start shooting at each other, it will mean World War III.
But Russian troops in Belarus and the large Russian naval force in the Black Sea, on the one hand, and the corresponding, smaller NATO force on land, sea and air on the EU's eastern border, on the other, means that there is a much greater chance of a mistake.
The chances of a mistake
With so many forces concentrated so close together, the risk of an accident and its dire consequences increases, the Guardian notes. "The risk of having a collision in the air, or finding a Russian or an American pulling the trigger where it shouldn't, can escalate the situation very quickly," points out Danny Sürsen, a former major and director of the Eisenhower Journalism Network.
"You put yourself at risk for a misjudgment and an accident and then, things can get out of control very quickly, because there are also the internal reactions in Russia and the US. Say an American pilot is killed, what happens? I'm not necessarily saying we're going to go to a catastrophic nuclear war, but that escalates the situation."
Jake Sullivan, White House national security adviser, explained that this is why the US is publicly releasing information about the locations of its troops in Eastern Europe, so the Russians know where they are and avoid miscalculation, "but also to send a clear message that we will defend every inch of NATO."
There are many previous incidents of close contacts between the two sides in the Baltic and Black Sea. Earlier in February, US warplanes took off to intercept Russian aircraft that were too close to NATO airspace, while British and Norwegian planes took off to monitor Russian aircraft flying in the North Sea.
For now, NATO ships have stayed out of the Black Sea, but if they decide to cross the Bosphorus Strait as a show of force and to protect navigation, then many ships will gather in a small area and the danger will increase.
There is already a danger as the Russians are jamming the ships' GPS, according to Elizabeth Brou of the American Enterprise Institute. In many cases recently, commercial ships crossing the Bosphorus have seen the phenomenon of incorrect coordinates on their machines. It is suspected that they were tests of Russian technology.
"There is a lot of shipping activity in the Black Sea and all these crews are at risk of not having proper GPS," he said. Another element of particular concern to the West is the Russian presence in Belarus, 150-200 km from Warsaw and Vilnius. It is the first time that the Russians have made such a show of force in this region, according to an Estonian official.
Source: in.gr
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