The protagonists on the Ukrainian front are in a state of suspense, with the West claiming that a Russian invasion is imminent and Moscow denying it. The latest denial is that of Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzia. The Russian top diplomat stressed that the West may be fostering the impression that a Russian invasion is imminent, but has not provided the slightest proof.
In fact, he went further, claiming that the Americans are behaving as if they want to provoke a war. "You look as if you are calling for this, you want it and you are waiting, when it happens, as if you want to make your speculations a reality," Nebenzia said, adding that Russian diplomacy will call for a Security Council meeting on February 17, the seventh anniversary of the Minsk agreements, to seek a solution to the problem in Ukraine.
The fact that diplomacy still retains the upper hand is confirmed by the telephone conversation between Foreign Ministers Anthony Blinken and Sergei Lavrov today (Tuesday). Moscow, however, is currently refraining from responding to Washington's response to Russian concerns.
It has made no secret, however, that the US response does not even remotely satisfy Russian demands. On the main issue that divides the two sides, Ukraine's NATO membership, the West insists on an "open-door policy", i.e. leaving open the possibility of membership. Nevertheless, Moscow is avoiding an outright rejection, which would cut the bridge, shrinking the diplomatic space.
For now, Russia is not planning to invade Ukraine
At this point, Putin believes that Russian diplomacy has an opportunity to open up the agenda by raising the issue of a new security architecture for Europe. A question, of course, that is directly linked to the role of NATO, especially in Eastern Europe. Therefore, at least for the time being, the Kremlin does not seem to be planning an invasion of Ukraine. Lavrov's statement that "if the possibility of war in Ukraine depends on Russia, there will be no war" leaves open the possibility that Moscow will be obliged by a move by the West, especially if the Atlantic Alliance accepts Ukraine as a member.
The Russians, in fact, have taken care by massing troops both on their border with Ukraine and on Belarus' border with Ukraine to send the message that they are not bluffing. For their part, the Americans are hysterically cultivating the scenario of an imminent Russian invasion, to the extent that it has forced Ukrainian President Zelensky to ask them to stop causing panic among the Ukrainian people.
For its part, the EU may superficially align itself with Washington, but behind the scenes it is attempting to set its own diplomatic pace, notably the Franco-German axis, in order to bring things within the framework of the Minsk Agreement. The Commission may be putting the brakes on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but the Europeans are worried about their energy supply and are therefore asking for guarantees from the US.
Dendias' visit to Ukraine
It was in this climate that Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias paid his visit to Mariupol. As is well known, an important Greek community lives in this city in Azov. Besides, Mariupol is likely to be a target in case of a Russian invasion, since the Kremlin will want to militarily control the coastal zone that connects Russia with Crimea.
The Ukrainian side sought Dendias to visit Kiev as well, in order to create the impression of active Greek support for Ukraine. Although Athens is clear in its position on the territorial integrity of Ukraine as well, it avoids at this juncture a visit that could be perceived as anti-Russian.
Source: Proto Thema
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