Those who predicted, shortly after the start of the war in Ukraine last February, a rapid victory of Vladimir Putin's forces have been proved wrong.
The Russian president had made the aims of the "special military operation" clear at the time: he wanted to liberate Ukraine from the "Nazis" in its government and to protect the Russian-speaking population in the east of the country from Kiev's alleged "terrorism" - a cheap excuse for the invasion.
New documents, however, are reportedly revealing Putin's real plans for Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian radio "Radio Free Europe/Radio Svoboda" citing a secret Kremlin document, the Russian president wants to create a new state in Ukraine: "Southern Russia".
It remains unclear so far which regions this state will include, but maps are already circulating on the Internet showing the entire southeastern part of Ukraine from Kharkiv, Lugansk and Donetsk to Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Crimea, already annexed since 2014, Mikolayiv and the greater Odessa region, a plan which, if implemented, would completely cut off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea.
On that map, all the areas that Russia wants to annex are marked in Z on Ukrainian territory
Putin's forces' attacks are concentrated in the east and south of the country and the Russian president has ordered the complete seizure of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Donbass, while the Russians are a breath away from the complete capture of Mariupol, have seized Kherson and are launching strikes against Zaporizhzhya and Dnipro.
Which of Putin's associates are possibly involved in the "Southern Russia" manifesto
The secret document reportedly comes from top Putin's party officials. As Radio Free Europe reports, Roman Romanov, a senior official in Putin's United Russia, may be the author of the document or may have been involved in its drafting as his name appeared in the metadata of the document.
A copy of the alleged Kremlin document presented by RFE/RL
But advisers to oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev, who is on the U.S. and EU sanctions list, were also allegedly involved. The document, dated 16 April, is entitled "the manifesto of the South Russian People's Council."
Putin's plan: Creating "Southern Russia" with "referendums" in Ukraine
As stated in it, Ukraine lost "its legitimacy through the Maidan revolution in 2014." The country's former president and Putin's man, Viktor Yanukovych, lost power "in a coup" and then, the manifesto says, "Nazis" took over the reins of government. For this reason, a new state should be created "for the unity of the tripartite Russian nation of Ukrainians, Belarusians and Russians."
The basis for the establishment of "Southern Russia" could be "popular referendums" held by Russians in the occupied territories in which the majority would supposedly declare their desire to belong to Russia. Putin used a similar approach when he annexed Crimea in 2014.
Experts find Putin's plan plausible
The authors of the manifesto use similar vocabulary as in previous plans to create "Novorossiya", the "New Russia".
"A prototype southern Russian state already existed during the Russian Civil War of 1919-1920 and even then it included the south and the eastern part of today's Ukraine," explains military analyst Marcel Bernie of the Military Academy of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich. "I think it is realistic that Putin now wants Southern Russia again," he told the German RND network."
He is convinced that the Kremlin already had plans for "Southern Russia" before the war started. Ulrich Keun of the University's Institute for Peace and Security Policy Research confirms that the idea of a new state has been around for some time. "In recent years propagandists close to the Kremlin have always flirted with the idea of a Southern Russia," he says."
The process of Russification
Already these days, according to Ukrainian media, a staged referendum is being prepared by Putin's forces in Kherson, although Moscow denies this. "In Donetsk and Lugansk, there may soon be staged referendums on belonging to such a Southern Russia or directly to Russia," Bernie believes. Ukrainian media see May 14 or 15 as the most likely date, with similar "referendums" likely to be held in Mariupol, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya.
The manifesto for "Southern Russia" envisages the imposition of Russian language and culture, but Russianization will expand further, Bernie says. "Residents will be forced to trade in rubles and obtain Russian passports," he explains, citing experience from Crimea. And he expects a strengthening of the influence of the Russian Orthodox Church.
Are Putin's plans for the "New Russia" feasible?
Ulrich Keun of the University of Hamburg, however, considers it difficult to implement Putin's plans for "Southern Russia". "At the present stage Russia does not seem to be in a position to conquer and keep the entire south of Ukraine under its control," he says, explaining that to do so would require huge naval forces and Russia has already lost its flagship fleet in the Black Sea with the sinking of the Moskva.
Military analyst Bernie cites an additional reason: "In Ukraine there will be great resistance to the creation of 'Southern Russia'." There will have to be a change of leadership in the civil and military administration, in the police and in vital infrastructure posts, he explains, noting: "I have serious doubts that this is realistic." Moreover, the West would not accept a "Southern Russia." Instead, Western countries would support Ukrainian resistance and rebellion against such a Putin-created state."
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