Ukraine is now entering its fourth month of war with Russian troops concentrating their offensive on the last pockets of resistance in the Lugansk region, in Donbass (east).
Although they assert that they repelled Russian attacks on the country's two largest cities, the capital Kiev in late March and early April and then Kharkiv in May, the Ukrainians have admitted for a few days that they are facing increasing "difficulties" in the Donbass, formed by the Lugansk and Danyetsk regions.
Difficult next weeks, Zelensky says
"The next weeks of the war will be difficult," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged last night in his daily address.
"The Russian occupation forces are trying to show that they will not give up the occupied areas in the Kharkiv region (northeast), that they will not surrender the Kherson region (south), the occupied areas of the Zaporizhzhya region (southeast) and Donbass (east). They are partially advancing. They are reinforcing their positions elsewhere," he continued.
The situation remains "extremely difficult" in Donbas, where the Russians seek to "exterminate everyone alive," President Zelensky denounced.
Moscow is concentrating its firepower in the last Ukrainian enclave in Lugansk, encircling the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said fierce fighting was underway near the communities of Popasna and Bakhmut, which seems to confirm the roundabout move.
"Mandatory" evacuations
The fall of Bakhmut, in the Daniyetsk region, would give the Russians control of a strategic crossroads, which is also currently an improvised command centre for Ukrainian forces in the region.
Its inhabitants refuse to leave it, despite the danger: "People don't want to leave," said the deputy mayor of Bakhmut, Maxim Sutkovy, in front of a half-empty bus that was supposed to transport civilians to safer areas.
Authorities are now reaching "the point where we will do mandatory evacuations," said the head of the military command in Bahmut, Sherhiy Kalyan.
Those who remain say rockets and bombs began falling at dawn and continued until noon around Bahmut.
Severodonetsk is being shelled "24 hours a day" by the Russians, who are "using scorched earth tactics, deliberately destroying the city," the Ukrainian Luhansk regional governor, Serhii Haidai, complained the day before yesterday, Sunday.
Severodonetsk's fate may be similar to that of Mariupol, the strategic port that was almost completely destroyed after weeks of siege.
The two self-proclaimed pro-Russian people's republics have been created in part of the Donbass valley since 2014. To defend them from the "genocide" he claimed Kiev was about to commit, Vladimir Putin ordered the "special military operation" in Ukraine on February 24, a few 24 hours after he officially recognized the two "people's republics" as autonomous state entities, with their territory extending across the Donbass.
Military aid from 20 countries
The southern front appears stable, though Ukrainians say they have made gains. The command of their forces in the south today spoke of an "advance" in the Mikolaiv region "towards the Kherson region", where the new pro-Russian authorities have announced they want to establish the ruble. He also accused the Russian forces of killing civilians trying to flee by road by planting roadside mines and bombs and then executing those who survived.
As Moscow escalates its drive to seize all of Donbass, Kiev, which insists on asking for more weapons, has secured promises of support from Western states.
At a digital session of the "Contact Group for the Defence of Ukraine", 44 states yesterday discussed giving Kiev military aid. Twenty pledged to send more weapons, while others pledged to train the Ukrainian army, according to US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
He declined to elaborate on the weapons the US will send after Congress approved the giant $40 billion aid package to Ukraine. However, among the weapons to be sent will be Harpoon anti-ship surface-to-surface missiles, together with a self-propelled launcher promised by Denmark. Kiev and its Western allies believe that these missiles may succeed in lifting the blockade of the port of Odessa, a hub for grain exports from the country, which are critical not only to the Ukrainian economy but also to the food supply of several other countries. In theory, these missiles could even threaten Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said he hoped to "be able to show the results of the use" of the weapons he received promises to deliver yesterday as they "may change the data on the battlefields".
Eight million displaced
In three months, thousands of people, civilian and military, have been killed, with no clear toll. In Mariupol alone, Ukrainian authorities speak of 20,000 dead.
At the military level, Ukraine's Defense Ministry claims that the Russians have lost 29,200 men, 204 aircraft and 1,300 tanks since the war began on February 24. The Kremlin admits that Russia has suffered "heavy losses" without being more explicit. Western sources put the figure at 12,000 Russian military dead. A French military source speaking to Agence France-Presse put the number at 15,000.
If any of these numbers are accurate, they mean that Russia's losses exceed those suffered in nine years by the Soviet army in Afghanistan, according to the British Ministry of Defence.
As for Ukraine, it has so far not released clear figures on the losses of its own army.
The war has also turned the demographic picture of the country upside down. More than eight million Ukrainians have been internally displaced, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Added to these are 6.5 million refugees in foreign states, more than half (3.4 million) of whom have been internally displaced.
Source: in.gr
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