In an article in the well-known Time magazine, the former NATO European commander, James Stavridis argues that the war in Ukraine is becoming Vladimir Putin's Vietnam.
As the war in Ukraine drags into its fourth month with no end in sight, many observers are beginning to wonder, "Will the West tire of supporting Ukraine?"
Some commentators suggest that "time is on Putin's side" and that the fierce reaction from NATO and other nations will gradually fade in the face of economic challenges stemming from inflation, the Russian blockade of Ukrainian agricultural and hydrocarbon products from the global economy, internal political divisions (particularly in the US) and issue fatigue as the relentless 24/7 news cycle continues.
I'm old enough, Stavridis says, to remember the US experience in Vietnam, and Putin's situation is increasingly reminiscent of that long, painful adventure. His cards, weak at the beginning of the conflict, are getting weaker by the day. Time is more on the side of Ukraine and the West than Putin, and as the year progresses this will become more and more apparent.
The military facts
Let's start with the military facts on the ground. Putin's original goal was to conquer all of Ukraine with a sweeping offensive, decapitating the Zelensky government and installing a puppet regime in Kiev.
This "Plan A" failed, the result of overconfidence, bad intelligence, worse generals, unacceptable logistics, and feckless leadership in the field. The Russian president's "Plan B" is a retreat to traditional Soviet/Russian tactics: "grinding up" small swaths of territory and terrorizing the Ukrainian civilian population with a deliberate campaign of war crimes.
But like the US in Vietnam, the majority of the population in Ukraine is deeply opposed to the invaders. Instead of being greeted with bottles of vodka when they invaded, Russian soldiers were met with a Molotov cocktails reception. The revelations of war crimes will harden the resistance and will of the Ukrainians, and time will strengthen their resolve, argues James Stavridis.
What grade does Putin get
Thus, Putin's chances of really turning the situation on the ground and winning more territory seem slim. In essence, he started with control of 15% of Ukraine before the invasion, set his sights on gaining almost 100%, and may end up with 20-25% at best. That is a failing grade on any test.
Providing the weapons
Also, similar to the US experience in Vietnam, Putin faces a determined enemy with access to external sanctuaries and bases. The US has never been able to successfully cut off the flow of arms to the Vietcong and the Russians will be similarly unable to stop significant aid directed to the Ukrainians.
Indeed, the Ukrainians enjoy far greater arms flows across their borders, excellent intelligence and cyber support, and far more significant economic resources than the Viet Cong.
Russian casualties are high
Casualties are also rising rapidly, both in Russian troops and equipment. Reliable estimates put Russian deaths in the battle at close to 20,000 - a staggering number almost triple that lost by the US in the 20 years of all the wars it took part in.
The sinking of the flagship Moskva in the Black Sea was a knife in the heart of the Russian navy. Over a thousand Russian tanks have been destroyed. This level of casualties is unsustainable without Putin putting Russia on full combat readiness, which over time will affect his power at home, regardless of his control of the media. Lyndon Johnson (or LBG, as Stavridis refers to him) would understand the painful choices facing Putin.
Worse off than the Vietnam-era US
In some ways, Putin's situation is worse than that of the US in Vietnam. Putin's democratic rivals - the US, most of Europe, all of NATO, Japan, Australia and others - account for nearly 60% of global GDP, Stavridis points out.
Russia's economy is only around 10% and so they are seriously underperforming in the economic sphere. China shows little inclination to give Russia a lifeline and if the US imposes secondary sanctions on those doing business with Russia, the economic situation will become increasingly difficult for Putin over time.
Fortunately for Kiev, the cost of supporting the Ukrainians - compared to the sheer size of Western economies - is quite small. Compared to the billions poured daily into Afghanistan and Iraq at the height of operations, Ukraine's cost, by today's standards of support, is modest.
Finally, strategic communications work against Putin. President Zelensky has proven himself a master communicator, easily overcoming the clumsy and implausible Russian narrative of overthrowing the "Nazi regime" in Kiev, Stavridis notes. Over time, Zelensky's skills in advancing his nation's cause will strengthen his position.
What Putin will do
Putin's most likely course of action will be to secure as much territory as possible before he begins to "burn out" due to Russians killed in battle, destroyed equipment, overwhelming sanctions and international disapproval. As an exit strategy, he probably hopes that the West will simply pressure the Ukrainian people into accepting an armistice that would give Russia de jure control of 20% of their state.
This seems unlikely at this point, given all the war crimes and fierce Ukrainian resistance. Both of these factors will harden in the coming months. Putin holds bad cards and, like the US in Vietnam, is headed for a major defeat. Time is not on his side, concludes James Stavridis.
Source: in.gr
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