The first round of the elections in France has revealed the duo for the second round, which will be contested, however, in completely different circumstances from the 2017 elections. The Macron - Le Pen margin may ultimately be larger than what the polls showed, but there are many who argue that the first round and the incumbent president's share of the vote had second round characteristics, as voters wanted to put the brakes on Le Pen, who appeared to be challenging for the lead.
In any case, the second round will be an uphill battle, as even if the polls showing Macron leading by 8% - there are others showing a difference of just 2 points - prove that it will certainly not be a walkover like in 2017 when the then new indestructible Macron garnered 66%.
The tanks of the two candidates
In theory, the candidates whose votes can be considered a tank for Le Pen are two, the most important being Eric Jemour (around 7%). The far-right candidate, who for some analysts made Jean-Marie Le Pen's daughter "more electable", called on his supporters yesterday "to vote for Marine Le Pen". The second is the nationalist Nicolas Dupont-Henan (around 2%), who made the same appeal to his supporters. He also knows that many Republicans are also "sweet-talking" towards her, having been angered by Macron.
Macron's tank, on the other hand, is not so large. The utter crushing of the centre-right and the even greater decline of social democracy limit the French president's options. It is indicative that the centre-right candidate in 2017 , François Fillon, had received 20% and the Socialist Benoit Amon 6.5%, while now the percentages received by Valerie Pecres and Anne Indalgo are below 5% and 2% respectively!
Thus, even if we assume that all those who voted for them, including those who chose the Green and CP France candidates, heed their call to support Macron in the second round, their percentage is no more than 15%.
Melanson
Melanson, who registered an impressive over 20%, said from the outset that no vote should go to Le Pen. It is almost impossible for him to support Macron in the second round, with whom he has significant differences and controversies over the neoliberal agenda the French president has pursued over the past five years, but he has clearly positioned himself against the far right.
Thus, it is possible that he will lead many to abstain - the second factor that will decide a lot in the February 24 contest.
The truth, then, is as the Financial Times described it in its first commentary after the exit polls were released: "The result leads to the conclusion that Le Pen, 53, is closer than ever to winning power for the far right in France, emulating the nationalist victories of Donald Trump in the US and Brexit supporters in the UK six years ago."
Macron himself described the battle as difficult, both because he wants to rally voters in his own camp and because it is indeed a tough contest. In the two weeks remaining, he will try to mobilize the "democratic front" that has often excluded the far right from power in France. "Let's not get carried away, nothing is decided," Macron warned, "the dialogue we will have in the next 15 days will be decisive for our country and for Europe."
However, the rallying of the "democratic front" in Macron that has displeased many should not be taken for granted this time.
Source: in.gr
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