Nikos Christodoulides has a clear lead over the other two main candidates and would have been the winner of the second round if we had Presidential Elections this Sunday. This is demonstrated by the findings of a survey conducted for the Cyprus Times by Analytica Market Research with a very large sample and published two months before the big election. As clear as the landscape is for Christodoulides, the battle between Averof Neophytos and Andreas Mavroyiannis seems to be a tight one, with the AKEL-backed candidate, however, showing a significant increase in his ratings compared to what the previous Cyprus Times poll showed.
The survey was conducted between 21 and 28 November 2022 and 5160 people over 18 years of age participated in it, through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. The weighting was based on the 2021 general election, by constituency.
HTTPS:/CYPRUSTIMES.COM/WP-CONTENT/UPLOADS/2022/12/PRESENT-PRESIDENTIAL-VERSION-3-NOVEMBER.002.JPEGThe Analytica Market Research, adopting the trend followed internationally in the research sector, is expanding into online voting, using specialized, state-of-the-art platforms that enable quality control. In particular, the tools available to Analytica Market Research's team of research statisticians provide, among other things, the possibility of deleting multiple participations, while modern systems can also identify identical, simultaneous actions.
SEE HERE THE RESULTS OF CYPRUS TIMES' OCTOBER SURVEY ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Christodoulides ahead, chest to chest Averoff-Mavroyiannis
More specifically, in the question who would you vote for if the Presidential Elections were held this Sunday, participants ranked Nikos Christodoulides in first place with 29 percent.8%, who maintains a steady lead - with no significant difference compared to the previous Cyprus Times survey conducted in October (30.1%) - and with a difference of 8 percentage points from the second place. They are followed by Averof Neophytou with 21.9%, an increase of one point compared to the October survey, and Andreas Mavroyiannis, with 21.2%. AKEL seems to be winning the bet of coalescence and the candidate supported by the party of the left, records an increase of more than 2 points in his percentages, compared to October, which is expected since he entered the race last, being relatively unknown to most voters.
After the three main presidential contenders supported by the major parties, the independent candidate Achilleas Demetriades follows with 6.2%, followed by ELAM President Christos Christou with 4.7%. Demetriades and Christou show no major fluctuations compared to the October survey.
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Noteworthy in the survey was the high intention to participate in the elections, however, we note that this finding was contributed to by the inclusion of an online questionnaire, in which those who have an interest and therefore an intention to participate in the process consciously participated.
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8 in 10 say they are absolutely sure of their vote. Only 1% say they are not at all sure.
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Party rallies
Much will depend in the home stretch of the election race on the dynamics the candidates register among party voters, which will provide the relevant rallies. From the Analytica survey, there is clearly a significant rallying of AKEL voters towards Andreas Mavroyiannis, which reaches 73% and justifies the rise he is recording. In addition to this, a shift of voters towards candidates beyond the official party choices is also recorded. In the case of Nicos Christodoulides, the survey shows significant support from all parties.
Compared to the October survey, Nicos Christodoulides seems to lose some percentage from DISY voters, since from 35%, he now secures 32%. Andreas Mavroyiannis' ratings are also on the rise in the ranks of the Movement of Ecologists-Civic Co-operation. In particular, today he seems to secure 33% of the movement's voters, compared to only 17% secured in October, according to the survey.
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The selection criterion
Interesting is the evidence as to the criterion by which respondents say they will select the candidate they will vote for. The dominant criterion is ABILITY TO ADMINISTRATE and BE INDEPENDENT. Next in third and fourth place are POSITION IN CYPRUS and KNOWING GOOD ECONOMIC ISSUES.
The last word in terms of the criterion for selecting participants seems to be MY PARTY'S PROPOSITION.
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Based on the above ranking of the selection criteria, Nikos Christodoulides has a lead in qualitative characteristics, as indicated by the respondents' answers. Specifically, he leads in the ability to govern the country with 29% against 26% of Averof Neophytou and 21% of Andreas Mavroyiannis.
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As far as CYPRUS is concerned, the differences in the ranking order are small. Christodoulides and Mavroyiannis are separated by only one percentage point, while the President of DISY is 5 points ahead of the second Christodoulides and 13 points ahead of the third Mavroyiannis in the ability to manage the ECONOMY. The former Foreign Minister is ahead in the ability to manage MIGRATION.
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Asked whether they think the candidates are honest or making fun of the people, respondents to the Cyprus Times survey, 70% said some are honest and some are not, while only 3% think the candidates are honest.
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Second round scenarios
Nicos Christodoulides and Averof Neophytou are the most likely duo to face off in the second round of elections, according to 45% of respondents to the poll. This is followed by the scenario that wants Nikos Christodoulides and Andreas Mavroyiannis in the second round (32%) and third with 16% is the scenario of a showdown between Averof Neophytou and Andreas Mavroyiannis.
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Nikos Christodoulides beats both Averof Neophytou and Andreas Mavroyiannis in the second round, according to the findings of the Analytica survey. In the scenario between Averof Neophytou and Andreas Mavroyiannis, the AKEL-backed candidate leads by one point.
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Nikos Christodoulides registers first in the victory performance, i.e., who respondents believe will win the election, regardless of the candidate they vote for.
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Citizens' disappointment
Citizens' disappointment with the situation in the country is widespread, since according to the survey findings, 60% believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction and only 16% believe that the country is moving in the right direction.
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Survey respondents believe that the main problem facing Cyprus today is DEFENCE, with 38% of respondents believing it to be the most important problem[/B]. This is followed by CYPRUS and MIGRATION by a very small margin.
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When asked what feeling you currently have about the situation in the country, 25% of survey participants say they are disappointed. 24% feel indignation and 21% uncertainty. 20% express concern.
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Regarding the degree of satisfaction with President Anastasiades, 47% of citizens say they are not satisfied at all. Only 7% say they are very satisfied with his handling of the elections.
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Survey demographics
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