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Residents of eastern Ukraine know that the Russians are about to intensify their offensive in the region. As the BBC reports, even the dogs in the streets seem to have figured it out as whenever a gunshot is heard they bark loudly.
By the time it is known that a Russian convoy is moving eastwards hundreds of thousands of people have fled their homes taking refuge in the relative safety of western Ukraine. According to the BBC, the Ukrainian side is moving tanks as well as longer-range air defence systems to the east.
Tellingly, many analysts believe the next phase of the war in the east could be decisive for the outcome of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, while others expect bloody fighting to follow. It is noted that the BBC has submitted a request to the Ukrainian army to record sections of Ukrainian artillery shelling Russian targets.
The only way to get there is with the help of armoured vehicles. Much of the war will take place in open ground and Ukrainian troops are to take advantage of the dug-out dykes they have created.
One Ukrainian soldier, Volodymyr, speaking to the BBC said his fellow soldiers often change positions to avoid being targeted by Russian troops.
"If we stay in one position for more than a few days, then we become a target," he said, adding that the difference between the two warring sides was that Ukrainian artillery was targeting military positions while the Russians had targeted towns and civilians.
Russia will find it difficult to make significant advances while Ukraine continues to have effective air defenses and artillery. Both sides have, so far, had similar force levels in the region of around 30-40,000 troops.
However, Western officials say Russia aims to double or even triple its strength in the region. However, this may take some time as Russia regroups its units. In fact, according to some estimates, Russia has lost 20% of its strength since the start of the war.
At the same time, eastern Ukraine is home to the country's toughest troops. Ukrainians have been fighting Russian-backed separatists for the past eight years. They use well-dug fortifications to deal with their opponents. Some of them may look tired but their morale seems to be high.
At the same time, the Ukrainian side receives real-time information about Russian movements. This is confirmed to the BBC by both Ukrainian and Western officials.
However, Russia still has a numerical advantage. This is because there has been a redeployment of Russian troops after the failed offensive around Kiev. Russia is also now fighting on fewer fronts and its supply lines will not be as long.
Source: Proto Thema
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