The Russian military operations in Ukraine, contrary to what the Russian side itself claims, are not proceeding according to plan. On the contrary, the situation - as the Washington Post claims - appears to be heading towards a "stalemate."
The front lines have barely moved in the last week or so, according to the paper, which reports that about 1,000 Russian soldiers are losing their lives daily in the war in Ukraine. In this light, the situation is taking on the characteristics of "bloody stagnation."
Russia's attempt to conquer Ukraine may come to a standstill as heavy manpower losses and equipment destruction affect the unprepared Russian forces who have so far failed to achieve any of their initial objectives.
"Unsustainable" operations
"In the absence of substantial progress on the ground and given the scale of casualties, Russia's military campaign could soon become unsustainable, with troops unable to advance because they lack sufficient manpower, supplies and ammunition," Western analysts and officials tell the Washington Post.
It has already been 25 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, with Russian forces having moved deeper into the Ukrainian border, but at no small cost.
Kiev and the West estimate Russian troops dead at 7,000 to 15,000, and Russian wounded at more than 21.
Kiev and the West estimate Russian soldiers dead at 7,000 to 15,000, and Russian wounded at more than 21.The "stalemate" that now seems to hang over Ukraine's war fronts is, however, accompanied by other additional dangers.
"The ferocity of the Russian offensive has intensified as the advance of Russian forces slows, with Russia engaging in heavy shelling of civilian populations. Ordinary Ukrainian citizens living in cities surrounded or partially surrounded by Russian troops are paying the price for a war effort that started going wrong in the first place," Liz Sly and Dan Lamott note in their article for the Washington Post.
Critical two weeks
"The next two weeks will be crucial to the outcome of the war," the US newspaper argues. If Russia cannot quickly improve its supply lines, bring in reinforcements and boost the morale of its troops on the ground, then Russian objectives may prove unattainable.
"I don't think Ukrainian forces can push Russian forces out of Ukraine. At the same time, however, I do not believe that Russian forces can take much larger parts of Ukraine either."
For his part, Rob Lee, an American former military officer and current Foreign Policy Research Institute researcher, notes that if Russia had hopes that it could occupy Kiev, then those hopes have now begun to evaporate.
Other analysts, from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), appear to agree, even arguing that the "stalemate" is not a future scenario but has already occurred, without of course meaning that there can be no developments.
Mariupol
If, for example, the Russians manage to take control of Mariupol, which they have been ruthlessly besieging for several days, then they could possibly redirect some of their forces fighting there to other areas of Ukraine with the prospect of those forces managing to advance to other fronts.
In an article on 14 March, a retired US general and a European military academic argued that the Russian force is close to reaching what the military calls the "peak" of its offensive.
The Russian army, however, still has overwhelming superiority in numbers and equipment compared to the smaller and less-armed Ukrainian army. Russia could still turn the tables if it is able to replenish its manpower and supplies, Lindley-French warned.
"It would be a big mistake to believe that Russia cannot sustain this war," he said. "They can't now, but they could" by adjusting tactics and bringing in reinforcements."
Source: in.gr
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