The French are asked to go to the polls again today, this time to elect in two rounds the 577 members of the French National Assembly.
At stake in this election is whether President Macron, who was re-elected in April, will have a parliamentary majority until 2027 when he leaves the Champs-Elysées Palace or whether he will be forced to "coopt" the exercise of power, i.e. to appoint as prime minister his political rival, who, according to the polls, seems to be none other than the leader of the alliance of French left-wing parties Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Polls in recent days have sometimes shown one party in the lead and sometimes the other, with figures hovering around 27%, but in general they predict that in the second round of the parliamentary elections on 19 June the Macron party, albeit after much suffering, will finally manage to take control of the National Assembly.
However, it is possible that neither of the two aforementioned factions will have a majority of MPs, so that the question of how many MPs will be elected and what the centre-right will do in the post-election period will be decisive, neo-Gogol faction of the Republicans, who, despite their crushing defeat in the presidential elections, where they failed to reach 5%, appear to be more than doubling their share in today's parliamentary elections and winning around 60 seats in the second round. Probably the most popular political figure in this area, former President Nicolas Sarkozy, has already clearly declared himself in favour of a vote of confidence in Macron.
As for the far right, Marine Le Pen's goal seems to be none other than to form, for the first time, a parliamentary group recognised by the National Assembly's regulations, i.e. to elect more than 15 deputies, with polls showing her hovering around 20%.
In today's first round of parliamentary elections, one in two French people estimated to go to the polls (abstention is predicted to be over 50%) will be asked to choose which party's candidate they are voting for. If a candidate exceeds 50% of the votes in today's first round, he or she will be elected to parliament. If not, in the second round next Sunday, the top two candidates in terms of votes and those who manage to exceed 12.5% of those registered on the electoral rolls have the right to stand.
In the second round, the candidate with the highest number of votes is elected MP. In practice, all this means that the vast majority of constituencies will, according to the polls, be contested by a pro-Macron candidate and a pro-Melanchon candidate, since with an estimated 50% abstention rate, it is unlikely that there will be many constituencies with a third candidate in the second round. It also means that, based on predictions, for the first time in France's modern political history there will not be a significant number of candidates identifying themselves as right-wing in the second round.
Polls will close today at 21.00 Cyprus time, at which point the first estimates of the final result will be made public.
Source: CNA
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