A turning point in the course of the war in Ukraine, which began with the Russian invasion of the country 54 days ago, is expected to be the outcome of the battle in Mariupol, as Volodymyr Zelensky expresses discontent at the delay in Western aid while Russia exchanges threats with NATO and the European Union, raising deep concern about how things might play out.
The risk of an extremely dangerous and uncontrolled escalation, leading to a generalized military conflict with the involvement of Western countries in the war in Ukraine, seems for the first time nightmarishly possible because of the stalemates facing the Russian invasion and the wounds Moscow is counting. More and more actors and governments in the West fear that Vladimir Putin may react in an insanely extreme way, even with the use of nuclear weapons, seeing that he cannot win the war (neither easily nor quickly as he would like).
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It is perhaps indicative of what will come next, that under the unbearable pressure of a situation that is causing her immense damage, Russia on Friday used for the first time during the invasion of Ukraine the Tu-95/-160 Tupolev heavy bombers, which launch cruise missiles. The target was Mariupol, but it is clear now that Russia is generally reinforcing the military operation with whatever weapons it has.
The assessment made by Western governments, and primarily by the US, that the war may last for many months yet seems very close to reality, since even the peace negotiations, which have now been effectively frozen for some time, seem to find no productive ground to continue.
That is why it is undetermined and absolutely worrying how Vladimir Putin will move to deal with three extremely unpleasant circumstances for him, which he had not even considered when he launched the attack on Ukraine: First, the enormous losses suffered by his army during these 53 days of operations, the latest being the sinking of the flagship of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, the cruiser Moskva, a painful blow to the Kremlin's prestige.
Secondly, the possibility that it may not succeed, at least not without terrible losses and in any case not soon, in conquering the eastern regions of Ukraine, namely the Donbass region, because of the serious military aid that the West is providing Kiev with to strengthen its defences in this region, with the strong pro-Russian separatist movement.
And third, he never expected, apparently, to see NATO strengthen its presence north of Russia, with Finland and Sweden joining the Alliance. Moscow went so far as to issue a verbal warning to the United States and NATO "to stop the irresponsible militarization of Ukraine, which entails unforeseen consequences for regional and global security." While just on Sunday it added another warning to NATO, this time about what the Kremlin calls the Alliance's "alarming" and "unpredictable consequences" activity in ... the Arctic.
But also in light of statements made by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that with the stifling economic sanctions the European Union has imposed on Moscow, she expects the Russian economy to collapse soon, the head of Russia's Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, warned Europe that it too would face economic consequences if it caused his country's bankruptcy. "In fact, it will cause huge economic problems for itself if it drives the Russian state into bankruptcy," Medvedev warned the European Union.
Zelensky presses the West and worries about Mariupol
President Zelensky made a dramatic appeal overnight to the West to send military aid to his country as soon as possible, as he sees the Russians tightening their grip on the eastern region of Donbass, now launching the final assault on Mariupol, while continuing to bomb on other fronts, including near Kiev or on the southern front.
As he said, "any delay in the delivery of weapons gives Russia permission to take the lives of Ukrainians. This is how Russia translates it" and he insisted on warning that the Russian military is preparing to launch a large-scale assault on Donbass very soon and to wipe cities and communities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions off the map."
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The Ukrainian government side rejected at the weekend the Russian forces' ultimatum to surrender Mariupol, which Moscow ardently wants to conquer in order to present a tangible "winning" result after nearly eight weeks of invasion in Ukraine. The Russian army has cut off the last forces defending the strategically (and symbolically) important Azovstal steelworks, where 2 500 Ukrainian soldiers are holed up, with no escape route and no possibility of reinforcements.
Zelensky warns Moscow that the extermination of the last Ukrainian soldiers defending the martyred port on the Sea of Azovstal "will spell the end of any peace negotiations" and that the two sides will now be at an impasse, while Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba asserted that for Kiev "Mariupol is a red line in the course of negotiations".
Earlier Zelensky had sent a clear and unequivocal message to the Kremlin, stressing that he would not cede territory to eastern Ukraine. He stressed that he has no confidence in the Russian military and political leadership, and noted, also addressing the West, that there is no guarantee that if the Russians conquer Donbass, they will not return to Kiev.
It should be noted that only on Sunday Russian forces confirmed information that they had bombed and destroyed an ammunition factory near the town of Brovary, 50 kilometers east of Kiev. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said that "high-precision missiles and artillery hit 814 targets, including 17 command posts, 111 artillery firing positions and 684 enemy strongholds and manpower concentration areas."
Source: protothema.gr
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