All polls continue to give Emmanuel Macron a lead over Marine Le Pen for the second round of the presidential election on April 24. By a margin that ranges from 4 to 10 percentage points, which means that at the lower limit it falls into the category of possible statistical error.
No one, however, despite the fact that Macron seems to be gaining ground in the last 24 hours, dares to predict with certainty his victory and re-election. Not even he himself, who, sensing the danger, has already had to put "water on the wagon" on one of the issues he had put at the forefront of his programme for the second five-year term: The reform of the social security and pension system.
Smaller "tank" for Macron
This is, after all, a contest that is only seemingly similar to that of 2017. The first is that the "reservoirs" from which the current president can relatively easily draw votes are much smaller than five years ago. In fact, the Republicans, Socialists and Ecologists - the main components of the so-called "democratic arc", that is - barely exceed 10% in total.
So, practically speaking, at this level everything will be decided by the choices made by the 7.7 million voters of the third candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who almost surprised them - which are far from predictable. He may have called on those who supported him to "not give a single vote to Le Pen", but that does not mean either that they will give it to Macron, or that they will not opt for abstention (the predictions are for a total of over 30%), or even that they will accept it.
Who are choosing Le Pen
The second fact is that the far-right candidate, unlike Macron, has this time many more potential voters in the second round than in 2017. That is why, moreover, many analysts believe that, although the gap between her and Macron widened in the first round, she is closer than ever to her goal.
She can draw these votes initially from the nearly 2.5 million French people who chose Eric Jemour. Something similar is expected to happen with the overwhelming majority of the 725,000 who preferred Nicolas Dupont-Henan. Finally, it has hopes of absorbing a significant part of the 1.7 million who voted Republican, especially as many literally "hate" Macron and feel ideologically closer to Le Pen.
The "anti-systemism" card
As for the third fact, it is none other than the fact that Macron no longer has the "halo" of so-called anti-systemism. After five years in the Elysee Palace and his track record is well known, not only can he no longer be considered an opponent of the system, but he is treated as an organic part of it.
And the fact is that this characteristic, which was the great asset of the current president in 2017, can this time be exploited more by Le Pen. With the aim of "levelling out", in a way, the fear that she continues to inspire in a large part of society, which has never stopped - despite the political face-lift she has attempted - to see her for what she is: A representative of the far-right.
The negative vote
As an analysis in le Monde notes, "the tradition in France is for voters to choose in the first round the candidate they prefer and in the second round to write off the candidate they dislike." Only there is one problem, in this particular contest: Both gladiators seem to evoke much more dislike than sympathy.
Perhaps this explains the slogan that dominates the occupations that have begun in many university campuses, in Paris and other French cities, reflecting the mood in the ranks of youth - or at least a significant part of it: "No Macron, no Le Pen!".
And given all of the above, two problems emerge that the political system will face whatever the result of the second round.
The next day
One is that, as the margin between Macron and Le Pen will certainly be much smaller than in 2017, polarisation will intensify. As for the scores, they will remain open until 2027, when it is not impossible to see a third consecutive showdown - and, possibly, the big upset.
The second - and probably more important - has to do with the overall crisis of confidence in the political staff, which makes voters' choices mostly negative. And this is something that, among other things, creates a glorious field of glory for Mélenchon - or for someone or someone who will appear... on the horse of "anti-systemicism".
If he doesn't manage to give it substance, then things will be more serious...
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