[CYPRUS TIMES] The attempt to encircle Ukraine, the next steps of the West and the big question. Dr. Michael Kontos in CT

Putin did what the US warned and Europe feared but no one actually expected. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is now a fact. Explosions in many of its cities, reports of the first casualties and panic among citizens running for their lives. The first set of sanctions do not seem to have 'touched' Russia and so the West is preparing a new response. However, the big question that arises is what are the final plans of the Russian President.

*By Georgia Michael

The Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Nicosia Dr. Michael Kontos analyses in the Cyprus Times the situation in Ukraine and what he thinks will be the next moves on the Ukrainian chessboard.

"I personally did not expect this development, it constitutes a very serious escalation. Especially if one takes into account that the operations are not limited to the east of Ukraine, where the breakaway regions whose independence was recognised by the Russian President the day before are located. They are being extended to other parts of the country, such as the border with Georgia which is close to Kiev and south to the port of Odessa. In all likelihood the military is targeting Donetsk and Luhansk and perhaps some other areas in the east of the country. However, there is an attempt to encircle Ukraine in order to disperse the Ukrainian forces to make it easier to occupy the regions in the east. Of course, we cannot be that there is not any other military objective for the Ukrainian territory."

Asked what he expects the Western response to be and whether there might be military support and intervention, Dr. Kontos said that already both the US, the EU and individual European states have already imposed sanctions. "Aid is being sent to Kiev anyway, but direct military intervention by the West is, I think, out of the question. In the first instance, the West will try to force Russia to change its policy through sanctions. This will take time. In the medium term the most likely scenario is that the annexation of the eastern regions will eventually be de facto accepted and some kind of de-escalation will occur. Also for the West and Russia to find some kind of common ground on issues other than Ukraine. Unfortunately, however, Ukraine will be the victim. The territorial integrity of the country, already violated by the annexation of Crimea in 2014, will have been violated once again and, as in any military conflict, there may be human casualties."

However, he said that in his estimation he did not believe that the military confrontation would last for long. "The big question now is what is Russia's ultimate goal and how far it thinks this conflict with Ukraine and the West can go. But also whether in the long term Russia can support, at the international level, this revisionist policy. In other words, whether it will be able to adequately absorb the international isolation in which it will find itself. At least on the part of the West," Dr. Kontos noted.

Russian invasion may revitalize NATO

The situation in Ukraine provides an opportunity, Dr. Kontos noted, for the US to regroup and lead the Western camp. On the other hand, he added, NATO is finding a reason to exist where its viability was in great doubt.

"Russia's policy in the past, which included attempts to challenge NATO's unity but without serious military escalation, was causing problems for the internal cohesion of the organization. At the moment we are very likely to see NATO coalescing and regrouping in the face of an upgraded Russian revisionist threat."

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