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The crisis in Ukraine also affects Cyprus, since, as a member state of the European Union (EU), it will be asked to take decisions on sanctions against Russia.
Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Nicosia, Michael Kontos[/B], told CNA that yesterday's decision by the Russian National Security Council and President Putin is a further step in the escalation of the situation.
The recognition of the breakaway regions, he said, constitutes a violation of international law, while, on the other hand, a narrative seems to be put forward by Mr Putin himself about the wrong border arrangement during the Soviet Union era, which may imply future claims against Ukraine, beyond Donetsk and Lugansk.
At the same time, in his fake speech, Mr Putin also tried to send messages to the West, he added.
A Downing Street spokesman said on Tuesday that London has "no doubt" that a Russian invasion has taken place on Ukrainian territory. He noted, however, that this was a "renewed invasion" and that the "full-scale" invasion that Boris Johnson warned of earlier had not yet taken place. He added that the developments overnight could well be a "precursor" to that full-scale invasion.
According to Kontos, this action by Moscow is a move to recognise the independence of these regions, but not yet a military intervention. "But the legal arguments are being built in order to be able to justify a military intervention," he added.
Aristotle Constantinides, Associate Professor of International Law at the University of Cyprus Law Department, told CNA that an invasion has not yet taken place, but it is an illegal intervention in Ukraine's internal affairs and a violation of its sovereignty.
"Russia has done this in a nice way, to say that its troops that will soon invade Ukraine will be at the invitation of the independent states that it has recognized," he added. We will not have a sudden invasion at Russia's behest, it will be at the invitation of states that are now independent in Russia's eyes, he said. "This does not change the characterization of the act, which will be an invasion," he said.
He also said this development did not surprise him. "It was the chronicle of a pre-announced intervention at this stage," he said."
Regarding the issue of sanctions, Mr. Short said that the most likely scenario at this stage is that the US and its European partners will impose some initial sanctions but, in all likelihood, they will want to hold some cards for the possibility of a further military escalation of the situation, i.e. to leave their more serious sanctions for later.
"But it seems that at this stage Mr. Putin values the benefit of escalating the situation as outweighing the potential costs," he said. "We will have to monitor the situation to see whether the next step of escalation is likely to involve more cost than benefit," he added. He explained that it will be seen to what extent that is, whether Mr Putin will assess the position he is in as advantageous to get what he wants from the West, or if at the end of the day there is not a satisfactory degree of understanding, he will now be forced to escalate with military support for the breakaway regions.
Kontos expressed the view that probably the Russian leader does not want to go that far, but has paved the way for him to be able to go there if he thinks that is where he should go.
From this point to the point where Russia is ready to undertake military operations, it seems that Mr. Putin wants to create a "time bubble" to see what the West has to offer, he added.
As for how the situation affects Cyprus, Kontos said it affects the international system in general, but also Cyprus through the EU.
"The EU will move towards imposing sanctions on Russia, depending on developments. The Republic of Cyprus maintains a regime of special relations with Russia, for economic, diplomatic and cultural reasons," he said and asked what the Republic of Cyprus' stance would be. "It will not be able to disagree with the imposition of sanctions especially since we are talking about a violation of the territorial integrity of a country and considering that Cyprus is a victim of foreign aggression," he added.
Kontos said that there is also the issue of European unity in the face of such serious issues. "If the EU fails to articulate a united voice, it will be a big failure," he said, adding that there are member states that do not want to go to extremes with Russia while there are states that consider themselves threatened by Russia such as Poland or the Baltic states.
"So the EU will experience a tug-of-war in terms of how heavy the measures should be against Russia and that certainly affects us," he said."
Answering the same question, Konstantinidis said that almost all European states have in one way or another relations, economic and other interests with Russia and all states will be affected. He pointed out that this is not the first time that sanctions will be imposed on Russia, as it is not the first time that it has taken similar actions, pointing to the case of Crimea.
Source: KYPE
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