Russia has one of the largest and strongest armed forces in the world, but this was not evident in its initial invasion of Ukraine.
Many military analysts in the West have been surprised by its performance on the battlefield so far, with one describing it as "dismal".
Its advance appears to have largely "stalled" and some are now questioning whether it can recover from the losses it has suffered.
A senior NATO military official told the BBC that, "the Russians have clearly not achieved their objectives and probably won't eventually." Senior Western military and intelligence officials have spoken of the mistakes Russia has made.
Misjudgments
Russia's first mistake was underestimating the strength of the resistance and the capabilities of Ukraine's - smaller - armed forces. Russia's annual defense budget is over $60 billion, while Ukraine's is just $4 billion.
[/B][/B][/B]At the same time, Russia - and many others - appears to have overestimated its own military strength. Putin had embarked on an ambitious program to modernize his military and may have gotten carried away with it.
Moscow invested heavily in its vast nuclear arsenal and in experimentation that included developing new weapons such as supersonic missiles, a senior British armed forces official said.
Russia is supposed to have built the world's most advanced tank, the T-14 Armata. But although it appeared in the Victory Day parade in Moscow, it is missing from the battle in Ukraine. For the most part, Russia has sent older T-72 tanks, armored transport vehicles, artillery and rocket launchers there.
At the beginning of the invasion, Russia had a clear advantage in the air, with its fighter aircraft near the border outnumbering those of Ukraine by more than 3 to 1.
Most military analysts assumed that the Russians would quickly gain air superiority, but this did not happen. Ukraine's air defenses are still proving effective, limiting Russia's ability to maneuver.
At the same time, Moscow may have assumed that its special forces would play an important role in helping it achieve a quick and decisive strike. Russia believed it could deploy lighter units such as Spetsnatz and VDV paratroopers "to eliminate a small number of defenders and that would be it," says a senior Western intelligence official. But in the first few days their helicopter attack on Khostomel airport outside Kiev was averted. That deprived Russia of an airlift to transport soldiers, equipment and supplies.
Instead, Russia was forced to transport its supplies primarily by road. Which has caused bottlenecks that become easy targets for Ukrainian forces to ambush. Some heavy armored vehicles went off the road, but got stuck in the mud.
Meanwhile, Russia's huge convoy, launched from the north and tracked by satellites, has still failed to encircle Kiev. The most significant progress has been made in the south, where the invaders have been able to use the railway lines to resupply their forces.
Heavy casualties
Russia had amassed a force of about 190,000 soldiers for this invasion and most of them have entered the battle. But, it has already lost about 10%. There is no reliable information on the extent of the losses suffered by Russians and Ukrainians. Kiev claims 14,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, but Washington estimates the number is nearly half that.
Western officials say they have evidence that Russian soldiers' morale is falling, and one of them called it "too low." Another said the soldiers were "cold, tired and hungry" as they waited in the snow for weeks - in Belarus and Russia - before being ordered to invade Ukraine.
Already, Russia has been forced to seek more troops to cover the losses, including by moving reserve units that were even in the east of the country and in Armenia. Western officials believe it is "highly likely" that soldiers from Syria, along with Wagner mercenaries, will soon join the fight. This is a sign that Russia is "scraping the bottom of the barrel," a NATO official commented.
Supplies and logistical support
Russia is struggling with the basics. An old military phrase says that amateurs discuss tactics while professionals study logistics. There is evidence that Moscow has not taken this into account.
Convoys of armoured vehicles have run out of fuel, food and ammunition. Vehicles have broken down and been abandoned.
Western officials also believe that some of Russia's ammunition may be running out. It has already dropped 850-900 long-range munitions, including cruise missiles, which are harder to replace compared to unguided weapons. U.S. officials have warned that Russia has approached China for help to address some of its shortfalls.
Instead, there has been a steady flow of Western weapons to Ukraine, which is a morale booster. Washington has announced that it will provide an additional $800 million in military aid. In addition to anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, it is expected to send Switchblade, a small U.S. "kamikaze" drone that can be carried in a backpack before being used to drop small explosives on targets on the ground.
But Western officials continue to warn that Putin could persist with greater brutality. They say he still has enough firepower to bomb Ukrainian cities for a "significant period of time."
In addition, today the British Ministry of Defence announced that so far the Kremlin has failed to achieve its initial objectives and that Russia has been forced to change its operational approach and is now likely to pursue a strategy of attrition.
"This is likely to involve indiscriminate use of fire resulting in increased civilian casualties, destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and a more intense humanitarian crisis," Britain warned."
Despite the setbacks, it is unlikely that Putin has been deterred, an intelligence official said, suggesting that instead the Russian president may escalate the attack. "He probably remains confident that he can defeat Ukraine militarily," he added."
And although Ukrainian forces have shown fierce resistance, the same official warned that - without significant supplies - they could soon run out of ammunition. The odds may be better since the war started, but even now it does not seem to be on Ukraine's side.
Source: in.gr
Contents of this article including associated images are belongs Cyprus Times
Views & opinions expressed are those of the author and/or Cyprus Times
Source
