Western experts agree in their estimates that many thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, but almost no figures have been leaked on the casualties of the Ukrainian army, which has been resisting fiercely for about five weeks.
"We don't know much about the casualty rate of the Ukrainian forces. In fact, we know nothing," summed up Michael Coffman, an expert at the American Institute for Studies CNA.
As was logical and expected in the midst of the war, the Russians and Ukrainians have been very sparing in the figures they announce for loss of life. And official figures, which are impossible to verify from independent sources, are apparently understated for propaganda purposes.
Russia's General Staff
Army admitted on Friday that 1.351 soldiers and 3,825 wounded. This was the second official account released by Moscow; the first, in early March, put the death toll at about 500.[/P]For its part, NATO estimates that of the 150,000-200,000 Russian soldiers deployed in Ukraine, some 30,000-40,000 are no longer able to fight: some were killed, others wounded, some captured. This war has highlighted significant weaknesses in tactics and logistics.
Kiev[/B], on the other hand, has released only two accounts since 24 February. The latter, dated March 12, cited 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers killed. Based on the analogy that in wartime for every dead soldier there are three wounded, the Ukrainian army counts at least 5,000 men out of combat. A number that undoubtedly does not correspond to reality. The issue of available resources is also a "significant factor of uncertainty" for Kiev, according to a recent memo from the Foundation for Strategic Studies (FRS).
Nevertheless, it appears that the Ukrainian army, in the midst of defensive action, has suffered fewer casualties than the Russian army, according to many observers.
"The war in Ukraine is an excellent example of Clausewitz's theory that the defending force is less worn out than the attacker," the FRS notes. "This is also because the Ukrainian forces adopted a mode of action more reminiscent of high-tech guerrilla warfare than conventional conflict in order to avoid Russian firepower."
Testimonies are mainly about material losses, which are documented by the website oryxspioenkop.com, based on photos or videos from the battlefields. The site has counted 318 tanks lost to the Russians (destroyed, damaged or falling into Ukrainian hands), more than 550 armoured vehicles, 16 fighter aircraft, 35 helicopters and 2 ships. On the Ukrainian side, the losses are 79 tanks, less than 200 armored vehicles, 12 fighter aircraft and 13 ships.
"The Ukrainians were fully prepared, they had distributed their forces perfectly," a Western military source estimated. The Ukrainians' capabilities certainly remain much more limited, compared to the Russian military. But the conflict that began in 2014 with the separatist, Russian-speaking regions of Donbass forced the pro-Western Ukrainian authorities to bring their military up to NATO standards.
The defense budget was tripled, topping $3.5 billion in 2021, and reforms were adopted to improve command and control. Since 2014, the US has provided $2.5 billion in military aid to the country. Trainers from allied countries or NATO members, such as Canada and Britain, have contributed to the training of the army. NATO countries, moreover, have been sending anti-tank rockets to Ukraine since the beginning of the war.
Finally, although on paper Russia appears to be overwhelmingly outnumbered in terms of troop numbers, the Ukrainians also have a very large reserve: to the 130,000 men in the ground operational force should be added the hundreds of thousands of reservists and volunteers. "Ukrainian casualties are obviously significant, but their combat forces are actually larger (than the Russians) because they have thousands of Ukrainians and foreign volunteers," explained a British expert, who spoke to Agence France-Presse on condition of anonymity."
Source: CNA
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