From the day he became president of Russia, Vladimir Putin had one goal: To get revenge from history by reaffirming Russia's status as a great power. He focused on undermining the North Atlantic alliance systematically, culminating in his invasion of Ukraine, which he believed would weaken NATO by preventing Kiev's future membership of NATO. The alliance that two years ago French President Emmanuel Macron described as "brain dead" has been resurrected for good, more united and stronger than ever. It will soon be bigger. Finland and Sweden, which even during the most tense moments of the Cold War did not feel the need for membership despite their proximity to the Eastern giant, have finally and irrevocably abandoned the neutrality they practiced for decades.
They formally handed over their membership request
Early last week, Helsinki and Stockholm formally handed over their membership request to NATO, making it clear that the threat from Russia is ongoing, while showing that they will not be intimidated by it. So far, the Kremlin's response has not been particularly harsh. Putin called the Helsinki decision wrong, warning of a negative impact, but stressed that there is no threat to the country's security.
Nevertheless, Russia, as all analyses point out, is still a formidable nuclear power. Its possible decision to move missiles or tactical nuclear weapons closer to NATO's borders could trigger a risky power play. The fact that the country has the largest number of nuclear warheads of any other, according to the SIPRI research institute in Stockholm, should not be underestimated.
"New Europe without a middle ground"
The changes taking place are tectonic. European allies are for the first time taking their collective defence seriously. In a word, they seem to understand that ensuring peace cannot exist without serious deterrent power. And this is the strongest indication yet of a profound change on the Old Continent.
"This is a new Europe, in which there is no longer a middle ground. Countries are either protected by NATO or are on their own against a Russia ruled by a man determined to assert himself on the world stage through violence," Roger Cohen comments in the New York Times. For political analyst and president of the Eurasia Group think tank Jan Bremer, this is a historic, unique opportunity for institutions and leaders to emerge stronger and more robust from the current crisis, as he points out on his personal Twitter account, promoting his new book "The Power of Crisis".
The dilemmas of neutrals
With Russian bombs falling on Ukrainian cities sending security concerns skyrocketing, non-aligned countries face difficult dilemmas. There is turmoil in European capitals, especially in those that are not NATO members, which are in the process of reassessing their defence doctrines more generally, looking forward to strengthening their cooperation with the North Atlantic alliance. And that says a lot.
Most telling is the example of Switzerland. According to the Reuters news agency, the country's defence ministry is drawing up a plan on security options that include joint military exercises with NATO countries. Although the idea of full membership is not on the immediate horizon, there are growing voices saying the neutral country should work more closely with the US-led military alliance, while the prospect of NATO membership is supported by a minority of public opinion, but the percentage in favour has increased significantly.
Ready to pay Austria and Ireland
Austria, also neutral, is on the same track, but does not want to join the North Atlantic alliance either. But it intends to invest more money in its security and actively contribute to the further development of the common defence policy, according to recent statements by the country's Defence Minister Claudia Tanner.
Even in Ireland, which is one of the continent's most geographically distant countries from the fighting in Ukraine (so does not feel directly threatened), policymakers are now redefining the traditional neutrality stance rooted in the country's post-colonial history. "In the past, if you raised the slightest concern about Ireland's position on neutrality, you would be accused of inciting war," Kathal Berry, an independent member of the Irish parliament, points out to Politico. Now Dublin, which spends the least money on its defense among the 27 EU members, sees the need to strengthen its defensive armor.
Where is Ankara aiming
Taking NATO allies by surprise at first, Turkey took the opportunity to sabotage the efforts of the two Scandinavian countries to join the North Atlantic alliance by accusing them of harbouring terrorists and raising a veto issue. Tayyip Erdogan claims that both offer sanctuary to people linked to organisations such as the PKK and the movement of his sworn enemy Fethullah Gulen, whom he accuses of orchestrating the 2016 coup attempt.
It calls for the extradition to Turkey of 33 people and for Finland and Sweden to lift the arms embargo they imposed on Turkey in 2019 after its military offensive in northeastern Syria. The veto weapon in Erdogan's hands is a leverage not only for future but also for current Turkish demands, especially those related to the framework for upgrading Ankara-Washington relations. From the bargain sale of the new F-16s that the Turkish president has long been calling for, to the restoration of his relations with his US counterpart Joe Biden, which are not the best.
Apart from that, there is something else in the back of Erdogan's mind. He has a habit, not coincidentally, of upping the ante during election periods to boost his ratings. "Many of his claims about the PKK are part of a familiar Turkish melody. But he has domestic reasons for standing up to America. The economy has collapsed and his popularity is always low. With inflation at 66.9% and elections next summer, he is choosing to mobilise the nationalist vote," Jonathan Eyal, deputy director of the think tank Rusi, comments in the Guardian.
Thriller over fate of prisoners after Mariupol falls
"The 21st century Thermopylae," as an adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky called Mariupol, has fallen. As of last Tuesday and after 83 days of heroic fighting, the Azovstal factory, the last symbol of the Ukrainian resistance, passed into the control of the pro-Russian separatists after an agreement to surrender the last fighters. As of last Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry said, more than 1,730 soldiers, many seriously wounded, have been taken out of the factory to surrender and transferred to territory under Russian control.
The evacuation was the product of extremely delicate and secret negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
The evacuation was the product of extremely delicate and secret negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Kiev has said that the militants will be exchanged for Russian prisoners, but the Russian Defense Ministry does not confirm this claim. On the contrary, many are calling for the soldiers not to be released but to be put on trial. The Russian Prosecutor General's Office asked the country's Supreme Court last Tuesday to declare the Azov battalion a terrorist organisation. The port of Azov has been the scene of relentless shelling since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. Putin's military machine carried out deadly strikes on the city's maternity hospital and historic theatre where hundreds of civilians had taken refuge. Fears are now being expressed that Russian forces will try to erase evidence of their brutality by using mobile crematoria to dispose of the bodies, CNN reports, without - as it points out - being able to verify the claim. But it quotes the words of Petro Andriushenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, that "curiously, the plan to clean up the debris coincides with the sites of the greatest destruction ... the theatre, Mirou Avenue, the hospital that was mercilessly bombed last March".
Movements in Donbass
At the same time, Russian armed forces and separatists are increasing control in the wider Donbass region where fighting is intensifying with very fierce clashes and bombardments on both sides. In recent days the city of Severodonetsk has been the focus of fierce Russian air strikes and merciless fighting by ground forces. The Ukrainians are putting up a fierce fight and, according to an update from the Ukrainian General Staff, appear to have pushed back the Russians for the time being. But the city is almost surrounded by Russian forces, which together with pro-Russian separatists are attacking from all sides. According to the British Ministry of Defence, Moscow will reinforce its military front there, transferring forces hitherto employed in Azovstal.
Source: ENTYΠΗ ΕΚΔOSΗ ΒΗMA/ in.gr
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