-
.
- Ελληνικά
Kiev and Moscow are now one step closer to a large-scale armed conflict, following Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision yesterday to recognize the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions held by Russian-speaking separatists in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine.
At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces have been extremely active in recent hours on the eastern Russian-Ukrainian border, following Vladimir Putin's order to the Ministry of Defence to deploy Russian "peacekeeping forces" in the above-mentioned breakaway regions.
This is a decision that on the one hand surprised the West, since there were hopes that President Putin, in view of his forthcoming meeting with US President Joe Biden, would avoid a further escalation of tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border, on the other hand, he confirmed US and NATO concerns that Moscow had not given up its plans in Eastern Ukraine by maintaining and preparing its forces for an invasion of Ukrainian territory.
From the very beginning, these regions have been the focus of Moscow's aggressive moves, on the one hand because of the armed action that Russian separatists supported by Moscow had already developed there since 2014, and on the other hand because the control of this region is a key point and a prerequisite for the creation of the land corridor that will also connect the Crimean peninsula with Russian territory by land. It is no coincidence that more than 700 Russian tanks, artillery units, armoured personnel carriers and medium and short-range missile batteries have been stationed within a few kilometres of the Donbas region for about two months, with rumours that some of these forces have already taken up positions in key locations in Donetsk and Lugansk to assist the separatists' defences in case they are attacked by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Putin's surprise
Shortly before Moscow recognized Donbass' independence, the Russian president contacted his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and informed them of his decision. Immediately afterwards, and as part of his address to the Russian people, Vladimir Putin will take a historical route to the creation of the Ukrainian state, referring to Crimea and its secession after the 2014 referendum, directly accusing the US and NATO of threatening Russia by moving offensive weapons close to its territory. And he clearly stressed that he would never accept Ukraine's membership in NATO, as in that case, Russia could be subjected to a military strike on its hinterland, even beyond the Urals.
The chronicle of an announced intervention
[/B]In essence, the roots of Moscow's choice to finally move to the use of "hard power" in order to achieve its objectives on the Ukrainian issue, go back almost two decades and to the Western-instigated (according to Russia) so-called "Orange Revolution" that from November 2004 to January 2005 paralyzed the country, bringing to power the pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko who defeated Moscow's chosen Victor Yanukovych in the then - uncontested - presidential elections. As President, Yushchenko had advocated NATO enlargement in Ukraine, putting his country in 'Intensive Dialogue' status with the Atlantic Alliance in 2005. In the 2010 elections, and with Moscow's support, Viktor Yanukovych will become President of Ukraine. Three years later, in November 2013, Yanukovych will reject Ukraine's Association Agreement with the European Union in favour of a new bailout loan agreement with Russia and closer relations between the two countries. His decision led to the protest of pro-European Ukrainians through mass demonstrations in Kiev. The events led to Yanukovych's unconstitutional removal from office as president on 22 February 2014, with him taking refuge in Russia a few days later.
Immediately after Yanukovych's ouster and the first tensions in the Crimean peninsula, Putin will order large-scale military exercises in southern Russia and the border with Ukraine, involving more than 2,000 troops. At the same time, the first Russian tanks will appear on the streets of Simferopol, the capital of Crimea, thus laying the foundations for its annexation to Russian territory.
The same scenario is being repeated in this case, except that this time Moscow has no means of political pressure, as the Russian community, which made up around 30% of Ukraine, has almost disappeared within a few years. The overwhelming majority of the Ukrainian Rosophones moved, especially after 2014, choosing either to cross the borders of Russian territory, to settle in Crimea or to resettle in the Donbass region that had already passed into the control of the separatists, thus dramatically increasing the density of the population that had Moscow as its reference point. In this way, the latter was given an additional right to claim control of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions with even greater intensity, within the framework of the Minsk agreements.
Convocation of the National Security Council
The dramatic developments in the Ukrainian issue have caused alarm in the Greek government as well, with the Maximou Mansion proceeding with the immediate convocation of the Governmental National Security Council (KISEA), which is to meet this morning in an expanded composition and under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. In addition to the political leadership of the Ministries of Defence and Foreign Affairs, as well as the relevant officials, the Minister of Environment and Energy, Kostas Skrekas, will also participate in the meeting of the KYSEA, since, as competent sources explained, apart from the military, geopolitical issues related to the crisis in Ukraine and energy issues are expected to be examined. In this context, it is estimated that emphasis will be placed on energy reserves and the search for alternative sources for the country's gas supply, despite the fact that the first impression is that there is no question of supply adequacy at this stage. The meeting will discuss all scenarios and the consequences that the escalation of tension is considered to have for our country, as Russian gas covers 40% to 45% of our annual needs.
Another issue that is expected to be raised at the KYSEA concerns the secret plan prepared by the General Staff of the Armed Forces, which was revealed by protothema.gr, regarding the removal of Greek nationals and those expatriates from Ukraine, in the event that the diplomatic crisis between Moscow and Kiev would tend to take on the dimensions of a direct military conflict. The plan consists of three phases, including the deployment of Special Forces personnel in the areas concerned to ensure the smooth and unimpeded transfer of all those who wish to leave their homes to the (coastal) sites chosen as assembly centres. At the same time, the participation of the Ministry of Shipping and Insular Policy is expected to be of key importance, as there is already a mobilisation for the search for ships which, if required, could be used either as floating hotels or for the transport of Greek expatriates who, being within the war zone, would like to leave the area and relocate temporarily to other safer places or even to Greece. We should note that in the wider region of Donbas, which includes Mariupol as a centre and forty Greek-speaking villages in a semicircle that reaches up to Donetsk, within a radius of about 120 km, it is estimated that more than 100,000 Greek expatriates live.
At the same time, the KYSEA is also expected to deal with the issue that has arisen in the last period of time from the targeting of our country by the Russians, mainly at the level of statements. The Russian interest is mainly focused on two points: the port of Alexandroupolis, through which the US bases in Bulgaria and Romania are supplied, and the naval base of Souda, due to the strong US presence there.
The Western reaction
In order to seek, even at the last minute, a diplomatic solution that would lead to a reduction of tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border, the foreign ministers of France and Russia agreed to meet in Paris on Friday, February 25, to discuss the Ukrainian issue, provided that Russia has not invaded Ukraine by then. The meeting will include "preliminary consultations" ahead of a possible summit between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, if and when it takes place due to developments.
We should note that immediately after Vladimir Putin's speech in which the Russian president announced the recognition of the independence of the "Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics" in eastern Ukraine, US President Joe Biden had a telephone conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. Joe Biden is soon to issue an Executive Order banning new investments, trade and financing by Americans to or from the above-mentioned regions of Ukraine.
At the same time, among the first Western reactions to the Russian president's surprise, is the announcement by NATO. Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was quick to condemn Vladimir Putin's statements, calling them an undermining of Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty. The reaction of the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen was immediate, who in a post on Twitter called it a flagrant violation of international law, stressing that Europe expresses its solidarity with Ukraine.
Source: Proto Thema
Contents of this article including associated images are belongs Cyprus Times
Views & opinions expressed are those of the author and/or Cyprus Times
Source
