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With the Russian pounding of Ukraine entering its third month and Russian forces hitting multiple targets, mainly in the eastern part, the scenarios for the continuation of the war are more nightmarish.
According to Russian and Western officials, Vladimir Putin has not ruled out abandoning the term "special operation" used to refer to the military invasion and declaring all-out war on Ukraine in an attempt to salvage his army's "resentment" over failures during the invasion.
Indeed, it is not unlikely, as the Independent reports in an article, that this will happen on Russia's Victory Day on 9 May.
The Telegraph, also British, puts the same scenario on the table, claiming - citing Russian sources - that Putin's generals want to avenge the failures of their invasion of Ukraine.
Colossal losses
So far, however, Russian forces have made few gains during their renewed offensive in Donbass, while suffering "colossal" losses during the fighting.
In fact, according to the UK Ministry of Defence, Russia has been forced to merge and redeploy units from failed advances in northeastern Ukraine.
"Russia hopes to correct issues that had previously limited its invasion by geographically concentrating combat power, shortening supply lines and simplifying command and control."
Russia still faces significant challenges. It has been forced to merge and redeploy exhausted and disparate units from failed advances in northeastern Ukraine. Many of these units are likely to suffer from weakened morale.
Shortcomings in Russia's tactical coordination remain. A lack of unit-level skills and inconsistent air support have left Russia unable to fully utilise its combat mass, despite local improvements," the UK Ministry of Defence says.
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The decisive eight days
Experts point to May 9 as the next decisive milestone for Vladimir Putin.
By that date, they say, Russia will either find some way to declare some kind of victory and stop the fighting, or May 9 will trigger a transition from Russia's "special military operation" to "war." Then Russia will undertake a nationwide mobilization to defeat Ukraine, with Moscow's threat escalating further.
On the ground, however, Putin's forces are now scattered, exhausted and showing no real signs of renewal. American military and intelligence observers tell Newsweek that the expected major offensive in the south has already turned into a stalemate: neither side can fully defeat the other, they say.
"Russia is again depending on long-range airstrikes, artillery and missile fire to pave the way for ground forces to be able to advance," a senior U.S. military officer, who was granted anonymity to discuss operational matters, told Newsweek by email.
"But it cannot sustain an attack on the giant front it has now created. The over-mobilised Ukrainian forces have not only held their ground and even advanced in some places, but they see the enemy faltering again. Yes, Russia is fighting, but Ukraine is winning."
Putin may be able to make some progress in Donbass over the next eight days so that he can declare victory on May 9, but overall, the prognosis on the ground is grim. This leaves declaring war and ordering national mobilisation as Putin's second choice on 9 May: a decisive move that will match the seriousness of Russia's national day.
Source: in.gr
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