The assessment that Vladimir Putin will lose the war in Ukraine and that people should prepare for a period of instability in Russia is made by Foreign Affairs in an analysis.
In the FA piece, it is first recalled that the Russian president neither declared victory in Ukraine on May 9 nor announced a general mobilization, as some analysts believed.
Instead, speaking from the podium on Moscow's Red Square, Putin sounded like a wounded loser, whining that NATO threats had "forced" him to act preemptively in Donbass, Foreign Affairs argues.
Three months into the war
Three months into Vladimir Putin's ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine, says FA, it looks increasingly likely that his attempt to liberate Donbass from Kiev will go down in history as one of the most spectacular failures in modern military history.
Russian troops lost the battle for Kiev within the first month of the conflict and are now struggling to make any progress in eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, they continue to suffer devastating casualties: by May 16, according to Ukraine's Defense Ministry, Ukrainian forces had killed more than 28,000 Russian soldiers.
The question now is whether the national humiliation facing Russia is more akin to the 1905 Russo-Japanese war, which marked the beginning of the end of the tsarist era, or to Joseph Stalin's failed attempt to occupy Finland in the winter war of 1939-1940, FA notes.
Putin "pays" for systemic corruption
Systemic corruption has hampered Russia's ability to wage war successfully. Since 2013, for example, Putin has awarded at least $3.2 billion in military supply contracts to his friend Yevgeny Prigozhin, who provided Russian troops with so little food that they resorted to looting grocery stores just to find something to eat.
Cheap, poorly made Chinese tires have been blamed for slowing the advance of Russian military convoys. According to reports from Ukraine's anti-corruption agency, a contractor supplied Russian troops with bulletproof vests that were advertised as bulletproof but turned out to be filled with cardboard instead of armored plates.
The Ukrainian military has made leaps and bounds
Ukraine's military, by contrast, has exceeded all expectations. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have volunteered to defend their homeland. Thanks to the eight-year war in Donbass, tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have combat experience and many have benefited from US and British training. Ukraine's Western-made anti-tank weapons and Stinger anti-aircraft systems have proven highly effective, and its Western allies are increasing supplies of weapons and military equipment.
The role of sanctions
After Russia invaded on February 24, the United States and its allies quickly imposed sanctions to "strangle" the Russian economy. Western sanctions are no longer aimed at deterring Russia, but at weakening the Russian economy and reducing its ability to wage war.
Crucially, Western sanctions are now directed against major Russian state-owned banks. The G-7 froze the Russian Central Bank's international foreign exchange reserves and removed many Russian banks from SWIFT, the international system for interbank transactions.
In response, the Russian government is taking more and more measures on the economy, further damaging Putin's war effort. In a single day, Putin wiped out most of the economic gains Russia had achieved since 1991.
The tide of Putin's war in Ukraine is increasingly turning against Russia and is almost certain to end in a catastrophic Russian defeat. It will not be the first time Moscow has embarked on an ambitious military adventure in search of additional territory, only to find itself powerless and humiliated, FA points out.
Similarities and differences with the campaign in Finland
One parallel that FA draws is the Winter War of 1939-40, a campaign on the margins of World War II in which Stalin himself decided to invade Finland and establish his own Finnish government.
The Red Army failed to advance against the small but brave Finnish army and suffered terrible losses. But the parallels end here. When the effort failed, Stalin let the professional generals take command, giving the Soviet army's chief of staff, Marshal Boris Shaposhnikov, full authority over operations in the Finnish theater of battle.
After three months, Stalin settled for a peace treaty with limited gains at a huge price. Putin, by contrast, has not ceded command to his generals. Instead, he has strengthened his control over the details, and Ukrainian leaders are unwilling to surrender any territory lost after February 23.
The Russo-Japanese war
The most plausible parallel is the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-5, FA argues. Its starting point was imperial rivalry. Russia was seeking a warm-water port in the Pacific Ocean, clashing with Japan's imperial ambitions.
The war started badly for Russia, but Tsar Nicholas II insisted on continuing to fight while hopes of victory faded. Even so, he continued the war to preserve Russia's dignity by preventing a "humiliating peace". But Russians were humbled by the defeat and rose up against Tsar Nicholas II, wresting a more liberal regime.
Today, Russia faces not only a humiliating defeat, but also a horrific economic collapse, for which Putin bears full responsibility. Russia's official forecasts call for an 8-12% decline in GDP, but this could be twice as much.
In August 1998, after six days of a much less severe economic crisis, Russian President Boris Yeltsin dismissed his government. Putin, by contrast, did not allow anyone in his government to resign, forcing everyone to be with him to the bitter end. Needless to say, fear seems to dominate the Russian ruling elite, Foreign Affairs points out.
Is there a chance of a coup?
The conventional wisdom is that Putin's Praetorian Guard, the Presidential Protection Service, is so powerful, well-paid and loyal to Putin that it will protect him from any coup attempt.
However, the cost of Putin's continued leadership to Russian society is so great that it would be surprising if no group mobilized against him. The sudden abundant leaks from the otherwise secretive intelligence community suggest an increased degree of inter-agency rivalry, FA notes.
Even if Russia continues to censor news of the war and the extent of its losses in Ukraine, the truth will eventually come out. During a decade of war in Afghanistan, 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed, a failure that contributed to the collapse of communist rule, but more Russian soldiers than that were killed in the first two months of fighting in Ukraine.
"Explosive" internal environment
Russia's internal environment seems "explosive" on every level. Possible rumors are spreading of arrests and firings of top security officials; at least seven top Russian businessmen have reportedly committed suicide after killing their families, making them look like executions.
Social unrest has not been widespread in recent years, but there is and the level of expected decline in output and living standards has not been recorded since the early 1990s. A natural popular reaction would be widespread social unrest, which would exacerbate tensions between the security services, FA predicts.
The role of the Security Council
Eventually Russia's Security Council could oust Putin. The body meets once a week, but in the past two years it has convened in person only once, on February 21, when Putin demanded approval for his war against Ukraine.
They met in one of the Kremlin's grand halls within feet of Putin. Initially, Putin's reluctance to meet with his colleagues was attributed to his extreme fear of the Koronai, but now he seems more afraid of his colleagues, as indicated by his preference to sit at the end of a distant table.
The Security Council has replaced the Politburo (Politburo) as the supreme decision-making body, but it does not enjoy popular confidence. If the Security Council takes power, Russia could again see a collapse of the political system, as in the August 1991 coup attempt, and power could end up in the streets.
A two-year period of unpredictable disorder could follow, Foreign Affairs argues. The alternative would be for Putin to manage to mobilize his secret police and turn Russia into a new North Korea, which would be far worse. It is difficult to see any middle ground in this dramatic situation.
How will the West move
Whatever the outcome, the West must start planning for the collapse or even strengthening of the Putin regime. If Putin strengthens his power, the West must act accordingly. Its sanctions against Russia should be maintained until all Russian troops leave Ukraine, FA notes.
While the West should offer Ukraine substantial material support for its reconstruction, sanctions against Russia should be maintained until Russia agrees to make reparations for the horrific damage it has caused to Ukraine. Future flows of Russian migrants are likely to exceed the millions currently leaving Ukraine.
If Putin loses power, however, Russia's future looks much more promising. A period of disorder would be expected, but if Russia finally achieves a decent democratic regime, the West should step in and deliver a proper Marshall Plan, as it did not in 1991. Hopefully a previous Western reconstruction of Ukraine can serve as a master plan, Foreign Affairs notes.
Source: in.gr
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