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There is a high probability that Ankara will finally give the green light for Finland and Sweden to join NATO, despite the Turkish president's initial objections. But it appears that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expecting something in return from the alliance.
As Politico reports, Erdogan is negotiating a better price on the fighter jets he expects from the US.
Turkey initially stressed that it cannot accept the two countries' NATO membership, saying they support "Kurdish terrorists", meaning the PKK. "NATO is a security alliance and Turkey will not agree to endanger that security," the Turkish leader said earlier this week."
This is not the first time Turkey has tried to "blackmail" a situation to its advantage. In 2009, Turkey opposed the appointment of Anders Fogh Rasmussen as NATO's top official and backed down only after high-level talks. De Hoop Scheffer, who was the outgoing secretary general at the time, recalled the all-night negotiations involving US President Barack Obama. Ultimately, the former alliance leader told POLITICO, Turkey caved on Rasmussen's appointment and "received an assistant secretary general in NATO as a prize."
Finland and Sweden's requests now give Erdogan another opportunity to leverage NATO's consensus-based model as well as rally his base ahead of elections scheduled for next year. The first, is domestic politics. Erdogan knows his audience and the momentum he has when he comes down hard on the PKK. Turkey, the U.S. and the EU have labeled the militant group a terrorist organization, though the designation is considered outdated.
The second, is that the accession of Finland and Sweden would change the internal political balance within NATO because you have two fully developed and heavily armed democracies joining the alliance.
Finland and Sweden are expected to add significantly to NATO's defense capabilities. Finland can provide naval power in the Baltic Sea and a presence in the Arctic north, where Russia has shown interest in extending its reach. Sweden has an advanced air force.
Another critical element is lingering tensions between Turkey and the U.S. over fighter aircraft purchases.
For years, Ankara has been a reliable customer for U.S. defense companies, buying dozens of F-16 fighter jets. Turkey later turned to the more advanced F-35s as they began rolling out.
But the relationship was broken in 2019 when Turkey bought the Russian-made S-400 missile system a move the U.S. said would endanger NATO aircraft flying over Turkey. In response, the US kicked Ankara out of the F-35 program and imposed sanctions on the Turkish defense industry.
At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been in contact with Tayyip Erdogan on the issue of Finland and Sweden's applications to join the alliance.
"I spoke with President Tayyip Erdogan of our precious Ally Turkey about the importance of the NATO Open Doors and the membership applications from Finland and Sweden. We agree that the security concerns of all Allies must be taken into account and talks must continue to find a solution," Jens Stoltenberg said in a Twitter post.
Erdogan had his first phone call today with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson since the open crisis between the two countries began, as well as with Finland regarding their membership in the Atlantic Alliance.
A statement issued after their communication said the Turkish president said he "expects Sweden to take concrete and serious measures, showing that he shares Turkey's concerns about the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) terrorist organization and its branches in Syria and Iraq."
As reported by the state-run Anadolu news agency, the Turkish president also told the Swedish prime minister that the embargo on arms exports imposed on Turkey in 2019 after the Turkish invasion of Syria in October 2019 should be lifted.
As noted by Agence France-Presse, the telephone conversation between the two was not scheduled.
Source: protothema.gr
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