Following the developments on the "fronts" of Ukraine and Taiwan, the international press is sounding the alarm. According to foreign analysts, a "hot autumn" follows during which governments should be prepared for all eventualities.
The Chinese press last week called on Beijing to proceed with sanctions that would hit those Taiwanese citizens who support the island's independence. Taiwan's press "responded" by warning that China's hardening stance has the effect of stimulating Taiwan's resolve.
At the same time, the American and European press is expressing concern about the turn of events in Ukraine and Taiwan. The Russian and Ukrainian press exchanged stern messages and threats.
"Playing with fire in Ukraine and Taiwan"
"Playing with fire in Ukraine" is the title of John J. Mearsheimer's analysis published on August 17 in the American magazine "Foreign Affairs". "Western policymakers appear to have reached a consensus on the war in Ukraine: the conflict will settle into a protracted stalemate and eventually a weakened Russia will accept a peace deal that favors the United States and its NATO allies as well as Ukraine," the author says. He adds that "Washington and its allies are too cavalier (about this plan). Although catastrophic escalation can be avoided, the ability of the warring parties to manage this risk is far from certain. The risk is significantly greater than common sense suggests. And given that the consequences of escalation could include a major war in Europe and possibly even nuclear annihilation, there is serious cause for further concern." According to Mr. Mearsheimer, "The (Joe) Biden Administration should have worked with Russia to settle the crisis in Ukraine before war broke out in February. Now it is too late to reach an agreement. Russia, Ukraine and the West are stuck in a terrible situation with no obvious way out. One can only hope that leaders on both sides will manage the war in ways that avoid catastrophic escalation."
In a similarly cautionary tone, the British magazine The Economist writes that "America and China agree on very little these days. Yet on the Taiwan issue, at least in one respect, they are in complete harmony. The status quo around the self-governing island, which China claims and whose thriving democracy America supports, is changing in a dangerous way, officials on both sides say. War does not appear imminent, but the fragile peace that has been maintained for more than six decades is fragile."
In an article titled "How to prevent a war between America and China over Taiwan" published on the magazine's website on August 18, it was reported that "the trip (by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi) was provocative. It angered the Chinese Communist Party. After Ms. Pelosi's departure, China fired missiles over the island and conducted live-fire exercises surrounding it, as if rehearsing a blockade. The danger is that China will use the crisis to set new limits on its interventions in what Taiwan considers its airspace and territorial waters. It could also attempt to impose even tighter limits on the island's relations with the rest of the world. This should not happen. The task for America and its allies is to resist these efforts without engaging in combat. America could start by restoring the rules that were in place before the crisis. It should immediately resume military activities around Taiwan, for example, transits through the Taiwan Strait and operations in international waters that China claims as its own. It could continue to expand military exercises with the allies, involving them more in contingency planning for Taiwan."
Like the American and British press, the French press is concerned about the turn of events in Ukraine and on the outskirts of Taiwan. "China's military threat to Taiwan is much more credible than it was 20 years ago" is the title of a report by the English-language service of the French network "France 24", which was published on the network's website on 18 August. The article states that "the (Chinese) show of military force was seen as a response to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei. Beijing regards the island of Taiwan as an integral part of its territory, which must be returned to its national territory by choice or by force. The military threat is much more credible than it was 20 years ago. But it remains unclear whether the Chinese military can actually conduct a full-scale major military operation in Taiwan. China's military has not been involved in a major conflict since 1979." Continuing, the publication writes that "these exercises will show to what extent the 2016 military reform, which created five joint command areas, has improved (the Chinese military's) coordination capabilities. At first glance, this certainly appears to be the case. But that does not mean that this coordination will be perfect from start to finish. The Chinese military exercises lasted a few days, while a military operation to invade Taiwan would take much longer. As we saw with the Russian plans to invade Ukraine, there is a fundamental difference between a plan on a piece of paper and a war in real life."
"Putin's attack on Germany" is the title of Berthold Kohler's analysis published in the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine on 16 August. Focusing on the effects of the Ukrainian war on Germany and Europe, the columnist writes that "by closing the gas tap and the subsequent explosion in energy costs and its fatal consequences, (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is deliberately attacking Germany's political unity and social peace. The German Government is aware of this. It is putting together one relief package after another in order to calm citizens' winter fears and defuse in advance the forthcoming distribution battles. The tangle of tax cuts, which is now almost impossible to follow, is not free of contradictions." Kohler adds that "a 'hot autumn' could weld the (governing) coalition, but also deepen the differences between the (ruling) parties. Only when the gas bills hit will we see how crisis-resistant the coalition, and Germany's entire political system, really is."
High tones from Chinese and Taiwanese press
"Taiwan's hardline independence separatists must be punished according to the law" is the headline of the lead article in the English-language Chinese newspaper People's Daily, dated 17 August. "Hard-line 'Taiwan independence' separatists have long been plotting to divide the country, and their behavior was highly inappropriate during the recent visit of Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, to the Taiwan region of China. The visit was a political farce and a dangerous malicious provocation," the article said. It also said that "hardline 'Taiwan independence' elements are willingly becoming the pawns of foreign anti-Chinese forces, openly challenging China's sovereignty and territorial integrity and seriously undermining the common interests of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation. The mainland has recently taken a series of decisive and forceful countermeasures targeting the separatists. The countermeasures include the imposition of sanctions on affiliated institutions and the criminal detention and review of those suspected of engaging in separatist activities or endangering national security."
Last week, the Taiwanese press "responded" in a similar, particularly high, tone to the Chinese press. In its editorial entitled "The Definition of Insanity," the English-language Taipei Times reported that "what Beijing does not understand is that the more it intensifies each of the conventional, cyber, information and psychological battlefields, the more it hardens the resolve of ordinary Taiwanese and strengthens the case for independence. Defiant displays of military might and in-your-face propaganda are the exact opposite of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping's policy. Immediately after taking power, Chinese President Xi Jinping hastily rejected Deng's strategy, believing that China was already strong enough to start showing its weight. Xi showed his cards too early. Having telegraphed his intentions for Taiwan to the entire world, he is complicating the whole situation and providing the Taiwanese and US militaries with a treasure trove of electronic information that can be analyzed and used to better defend against China's Liberation Army weapon systems."
Russian and Ukrainian press
"How Ukraine is turning into a kamikaze state" is the title of David Narmania's opinion piece published on the website of the Russian news agency "Ria" on 18 August. In his article, Mr. Narmania argues that "US threats to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism are accompanied by similar decisions by Washington's vassals among the political elites of the Baltic states. Such a move would not only force Washington to impose sanctions against its own allies, who with varying degrees of activity continue to do business with the Kremlin, but would also put an end to any relations with Moscow, which are already going through perhaps the worst period in history at least since the Cuban missile crisis."
Moving on, the article writes that "the US authorities took the mockery to a new level by bringing out a full-fledged kamikaze state from Ukraine. Judge for yourself: the so-called President of Ukraine openly states that Ukrainian troops will continue to attack the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. In this context, the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces in Nikopol seem even more reckless; Kiev has moved a separate regiment of troops there. The Russian Defence Ministry believes that this shows that a challenge is being prepared. Lieutenant Colonel Mikhail Mizintsev, head of Russia's National Defense Management Center, said any such actions near the Zaporizhzhya plant pose a threat to the nuclear security of the entire continent. Ukraine is literally behaving like a kamikaze state."
On the Ukrainian side, press reports paint a different picture. "His (Russian President's) humiliation is the only way to end the Russian-Ukrainian war and give Russia a chance to return to civilization. Humiliation has nothing to do with insulting (Vladimir) Putin and nothing to do with revealing his personal sins. Humiliation consists of inflicting on him a complete and total defeat on the battlefield, which will not allow him to 'save face' and present evidence in favour of one form of victory for Russia or another. Anything less than such a defeat will save the Putin regime and Putin from collapse. This will convince Russians that their faith in Putin is justified," Oleksandr Motyl wrote in an article published in the Ukrainian newspaper Gazeta on August 17.
The columnist went on to say that "a humiliated, defeated and de-legitimized Putin is much less likely to do something wildly destructive than a proud one (Putin). The Russian Führer may be desperate to push the nuclear button from the depths of his bunker, but humiliation will deter the generals who would have to approve such madness. A leader who lives in fantasies of horrors cannot be allowed to save face. His army must be defeated, his regime overthrown and he himself humiliated."
Source: CNA
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