How can the nightmare of war in Ukraine end? This is the question that is on the minds of the whole planet, especially since more and more "players" are involved in this conflict, with the result that it risks spreading, while others fear that there could be an episode with a nuclear attack.
In an article, Politico, presents three scenarios for the end of the war. Moscow's announcement on Tuesday that it would shift its focus from Kiev to Donbass seemed like a sign that President Vladimir Putin is preparing to pursue a more moderate victory. However, that speculation was quickly dismissed as his forces continued bombing around the Ukrainian capital.
With NATO forces adamantly refusing to intervene on behalf of Ukraine, Western officials increasingly see three scenarios for how this conflict could end, the article noted. Whatever the scenario - Putin's removal, a negotiated settlement or an ongoing stalemate - there is no return to the old post-war order.
A coup against Putin?
"For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power." In the quote heard around the world, US President Joe Biden said what many Western leaders are thinking. They don't understand Putin's way of thinking, are tired of his nuclear threats and don't trust a single "damn" word he says, according to Politico.
Motivated by ideology, Putin "doesn't think in terms of cost-benefit analysis," said former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul. That means the West may not have been able to do much to prevent Putin from choosing this fight in the first place, nor much to persuade him to end it.
Instead, Washington and London are dreaming of what a post-Putin world might look like. And they like it, Politico argues.
In this scenario, Ukrainian resistance (with enough Western help to avoid escalation) keeps Putin locked into a protracted conflict.
To stay in the game, Putin must recruit more and more troops. They in turn return home in body bags that not even his propaganda machine can wash away - urging mothers to take to the streets, as they did during Russia's failed occupation of Afghanistan.
The role of sanctions
Meanwhile, increasingly harsh sanctions are pushing the Russian middle class - now accustomed to capitalist indulgences like Ikea and McDonalds - to radicalise and react against the war.
Russian elites will likely create a circular firing squad for Russia's "disastrous progress" in the war with Ukraine, a Western official said. "People will be quite defensive about their own failures and, I think, looking to point fingers at others," Politico noted."
There were "significant signs of concern about the way the invasion has played out for Russia among Russian elites in general," the official added.
"Of his own poison"
Eventually, Russia's generals and spies - many of whom are under house arrest - decide to give Putin a dose of his own poison and get rid of him by force. As the coup coincides with mass demonstrations, a pro-Western generation of leaders emerges from the chaos in Moscow.
The revolutionary zeal of the Russians and the triumph of the Ukrainians brings a new momentum for liberal democracy not seen since the early 1990s, Politico reports in this scenario.
Ukraine is becoming an object lesson not only for Moscow, but also for Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who may be more of a "thought leader for cost-benefit analysis," sees Russia's humiliation in the face of a united Western front and realizes that making a play for Taiwan simply wouldn't be worth it.
How valid is such a scenario?
Politico conducts a "reality check" on this scenario: The last time the Russians abruptly overthrew their leader was in 1917 - and given the complete absence of organized opposition, there's no guarantee that a successor to Putin would have a different mindset.
Meanwhile, it could be a mistake to think that Russia's experience would make Beijing have second thoughts about Taiwan, as historian Niall Ferguson has argued.
China, which has a much larger economy than Russia's, can take comfort in the West's inability to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels and NATO's refusal to directly risk the security of its own members to help Ukraine.
"Let's move to an agreement"
French President Emmanuel Macron was adamant that a negotiated peace deal is still possible. The contours of a possible settlement vary widely, and there is no clarity on how many Ukrainian concessions the West - and the Ukrainian people themselves - could accept, Politico points out.
Western European countries have a strong incentive to return to economic normalcy. Amid signs that the impact of sanctions is waning, punitive actions will only have to become more severe, and that doesn't just hurt Russia. Rising living costs look set to be the biggest threat to Macron's re-election, for example, and in Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that not using Russian oil and gas would cause a recession.
"If we had a negotiated settlement of this conflict that would get Russian forces out of Ukraine, that would protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine in the future, that would ensure the reconstruction of Ukraine, then sanctions could be lifted," U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland told the U.S.-backed, Russian-language Current Time TV channel on Wednesday.
"You could see a scenario where, with the steps to remove Russian forces from Ukraine, we would follow the sequential lifting of sanctions," she said, though "we are a long way from that."
Why the Europeans would be happy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already expressed his intention for Ukraine to give up NATO membership. Putin may also be able to wrest some territory - say, walk away with Crimea and Donbas without further Ukrainian contestation, Politico notes - in exchange for a Russian withdrawal from the rest of the country.
Poles in Berlin and Paris feel their guts clench just thinking about this outcome, with the potential for soft-power victories in the long run. If Ukraine splits in two, the EU can ostentatiously take responsibility for rebuilding the free side. This creates an attractive West-East Germany type contrast to make it clear how bad Moscow's lifestyle offer is.
And having a clear de facto EU-Russia border on the Dnieper River is also attractive - especially when the alternative would be the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania if Putin had managed to take over all of Ukraine.
The "reality check"
Putin has broken nearly every promise he has made in the last month, whether it's withdrawing from Kiev or authorizing humanitarian escape routes from Mariupol, Politico notes in its "reality check" for this scenario.
"My view is that Putin is clearly unreliable," Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Wednesday, as he questioned whether Macron's negotiations with the Kremlin have much merit."
Even if Putin honors a deal, any gains are achieved through unprovoked violence and deeply undermine the rules-based national order. Eastern EU countries that have been aggressive towards Russia would see such a deal as appeasement for a bully who threatens their own security.
Putin could see it as an invitation to try again to invade a neighbor - and this time he might be better prepared.
No way out
The US Defense Department estimates that the conflict could go on for a decade. Indeed, there is no indication that either party will be ready for serious peace negotiations anytime soon.
Zelensky refuses to even discuss surrendering territory until the Russians move troops back into position before February 24, and his other possible concession - declared Ukrainian neutrality - requires a constitutional referendum that is almost impossible to organize.
Meanwhile, Western intelligence assessments suggest that Putin doesn't even know how bad things are going for him - advisers are keeping him blissfully ignorant, the same article notes. The waning impact of sanctions on Russia is hardening Moscow's resolve, while Western leaders show increasing reluctance to increase the pain on their own voters.
"European Syria"
The ongoing military conflict is beginning to resemble a Syria in Eastern Europe. NATO remains firm and united in its refusal to send troops on the ground or shoot down Russian planes from the sky. The Ukrainians, for all their passion and discipline, are too scattered defending Kiev and other key points from Russian harassment to launch a real counter-offensive.
"There will be a moment when the Russian forces will decide they have done enough in Mariupol and then they will look to move north and try to mount this broader operation to encircle" the Ukrainian forces in Donbass, a Western official said.
As the Russians succeed in capturing towns, the best hope for Ukrainian forces will be to use guerrilla-style techniques to prevent a military operation from becoming a political reality. That means moving Russian resources away from the hard front lines, a "very costly change of posture," said Jennifer Caffarella, chief of staff at the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War.
With little hope of actually holding Ukraine, Putin is opting for systematic destruction, making the cost of rebuilding the country prohibitively expensive. Russia never actually wins, but Ukraine loses its population and economy.
How realistic is this scenario?
NATO is left out to avoid a Third World War. But a prolonged war has global consequences. The Ukrainian refugees flooding the West will not be able to return home.
And they will not be the only new arrivals: People from the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia threatened by the collapse of the Russian economy and the cessation of food exports will renew migration as a wedge issue in Western democracies, Politico concludes in its analysis.
Source: Politico/in.gr
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