Shortly before the start of the official dinner of the Summit at the Palacio Real in Madrid, the big news came, for which there had been rumblings for days: Turkey finally said "yes", after Erdogan's trilateral meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Andersson and the president of Finland Nisto, and thus the two Scandinavian countries will break the decades-long tradition of neutrality and join the Alliance in the coming months.
It was not a completely unexpected development, despite the difficulties of the previous days. It was clear that Turkey was under pressure from all directions not to cause trouble for NATO, especially at this juncture. Perhaps one omen was the "unlocking" of the Erdogan-Biden meeting, as the US president could have been unaware of Turkey's intention to back down from its "veto" threat, but also the indication by US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan that the issue of the two countries would not be a major topic of discussion. Because, as it turned out a few hours later, it would have been resolved by the time the two men talked it out.
The trade-offs
On a first reading, Mr. Erdogan must have gotten certain trade-offs in order to back down. According to a competent source who spoke to protothema.gr, however, these do not concern our region and may, in the end, not be so...spectacular, which remains to be seen.
At first, a "tangible" gain could be the lifting of the embargo on arms sales, mainly from Sweden, which has a developed war industry, although this does not mean that Turkey will directly purchase Swedish weapons. Still, Sweden and Finland are committed to condemning the actions of the PKK, which they already do as EU members, while the two countries cut off all support for the YPG and Fethullah Gulen's group, which is more of a political symbolism for Ankara than a meaningful retreat for Stockholm and Helsinki. The new trilateral cooperation will be fleshed out with the establishment of a mechanism involving officials from the foreign, interior, justice and intelligence ministries of the three countries. On a first reading of the three-page compromise between the two countries, which was signed in NATO's press room in strings and organs, it is not easy to see what are the major and substantial concessions made by the two Scandinavian countries. Perhaps because they do not exist.
In this light, many believe that Mr Erdogan has made a tactical manoeuvre, aware of the surrounding atmosphere, and has chosen a way to send a message to his domestic audience that he is emerging victorious from a long and difficult negotiation, which, of course, he himself made long and difficult. Whether there will be other benefits for Turkey is something that remains to be seen in due course, and it will be interesting, in the light of the agreement, to see his meetings today with Mr Biden and Mr Macron at the NATO summit.
For the other Western leaders, however, it is not easy to make any more substantial concessions to Mr Biden. Erdogan, who certainly did not win friends in Europe and the US with his "NATO blackmail" at such an important juncture for the Alliance.
The Greek reaction
The prospect of the two Scandinavian countries and EU members joining NATO did not come as a surprise to Athens, which had been aware for the past few days that steps were being taken in this direction. Speaking to protothema.gr, government sources expressed Greece's satisfaction with the positive development, as well as the fact that "the Turkish president's bargaining did not last long". Besides, our country was from the very beginning obviously in favour of the enlargement of the Alliance with the two countries.
The same source estimated that the Turkish agreement has no effect on Greek-Turkish relations, as no issues arise that affect issues of direct interest to our country or differentiate the European Union's relations with Turkey. On the contrary, the European wing of NATO is strengthened, which is considered to be in our country's interest, given that European leaders know the Greek positions first hand. Mitsotakis had the opportunity to talk briefly with US President Biden, who reportedly expressed warm words about last month's visit to Washington.
Source: Proto Thema
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