For several years now, scientists seem to have been concerned about monkeypox, as expert warnings go back to 1988.
Specifically, in a paper published in the International Journal of Epidemiology in the late 1980s, scientists made a fairly accurate prediction about monkey smallpox.
Over time, "the average extent and duration of any monkeypox epidemic will increase," they said in their paper.
Note that at that time, monkeypox was an extremely rare disease, and health professionals were detecting only a few cases a year in West and Central Africa.
Humans were almost exclusively infected by rodents or primates and subsequently spread the virus to only a few individuals. Transmission among humans was limited.
But scientists warned that, over time, these sporadic outbreaks would increase in scale and spread geographically, as reported on its online portal by the U.S. National Public Radio, NPR.
"In every publication about previous outbreaks of monkeypox, there has always been a warning about the fact that we need to prepare for more outbreaks in the future," says Emory University infectious disease specialist Boguma Titanji Titanji of Emory University. "That prediction has indeed been borne out," she notes."
Monkey smallpox has not disappeared since then, as in the 1990s, only about 50 cases of monkey smallpox per year were recorded in West and Central Africa. Twenty years later, in 2020, there were probably more than 5,000 cases, a scientific study published in February said.
Today more than 450 cases have been reported in about 20 countries.
Many experts believe there are more cases that have not been detected and the virus is likely to spread to communities where smallpox in monkeys has never been seen before.
A total of 19 countries outside Africa have confirmed at least one case. The total number of cases identified by the ECDC,has almost quintupled since its first count on 20 May, rising from 38 to 219 cases, with 191 detected in Europe.
"Its appearance in Europe is not a common occurrence, we have no explanation why it happened, there is speculation and therefore it is reasonable to be concerned until we know how it happened," she says.
She thinks it is "unlikely that we will have no cases in Greece unless we can eradicate the disease in the next few days, but it is now in 19 countries. How will these countries be able to find the contacts of the 200 cases they have?" he wonders.
Regarding transmissibility, he stresses that we still "do not know the transmissibility of this form currently circulating in Europe. We see cases doubling every 2 to 3 days so we need to take immediate action," he stresses. He estimates that "there are more cases" as he says "monkeypox, like human smallpox, takes about two weeks to have visible symptoms. So those who are infected today will see these cases in the next two weeks."
Source: cnn.gr
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