In a one of the most crucial votes in recent years, with Emmanuel Macron, in a recent message on Twitter, urging people to vote in a contest where turnout is expected to be lower than in other years.
Unlike in 2017, when Macron was elected in a landslide, leaving Marine Le Pen far behind, in this contest the far-right candidate is as close as ever to the front-runner.
The "breath" of the far-right has become more pronounced in a France marked by massive "yellow vest" demonstrations and hosted social protests of unprecedented intensity and scope.
In the midst of the Ukrainian crisis, with Macron having recently indulged in feverish processes and while discontent over the pandemic situation is evident, the far-right candidate is trying to attract people by arguing that she is aiming solely at improving the living standards of the French.
The dark spot in Macron's agenda is raising the retirement age, while Le Pen, in turn, is trying to catch votes by promising tax breaks for those under 30.
The crucial point is mainly in the second round, which by all indications and looking back at French history, there will be a second round. The last time a French presidential candidate was elected in the first round was Charles de Gaulle in 1965.
The question is where the voters of the other 12 candidates will be directed in the April 24 election. However, it is surprising that the Economist, commenting on the French elections, refers to a "cacophony" of extreme left and right forces.
The question is whether Macron will succeed in the second round, reversing the "tradition" of his two predecessors, François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy, who lost the final battle.
Turnout rates
The voter turnout in the first round of the French presidential election, currently being held with twelve candidates, was 25.48% by 12.00 noon French time (13:00 GMT), the Interior Ministry said. In the 2017 election, the corresponding figure was 28.54%.
Voting began at 8:00 a.m. (9:00 a.m. GMT) and will end at 8 p.m. (9:00 p.m. GMT), when the first projections of the results are expected, as French law states that "no election result, partial or final, may be communicated to the public by any means before the closing of the last polling station in the metropolitan territory." However, this legislation only applies to France and it is therefore possible that media in other countries, particularly French-speaking countries, may prematurely broadcast some predictions of the election result.
The turnout rate up to 13:00 GMT is four points higher than on 21 April 2002 (21.3%), when a record abstention rate was set in a first round of presidential elections.
It is worth noting, however, that in France people usually avoid voting in the early hours of the morning and at lunchtime, with the result that the first reliable estimates of abstention are usually made in the afternoon.
The 12 candidates are voting in their constituencies, with Emmanuel Macron in Touquet in the Pas de Calais region, Marine Le Pen in Henri Beaumont in the same region and Jean-Luc Mélenchon in Marseille.
Macron is the favourite, although Le Pen has "closed the gap"
French President Emmanuel Macron appears to be the heavy favourite to break the nearly 20-year "curse" of the French political scene and manage to be re-elected, something that had not happened with either Nicolas Sarkozy or François Hollande. The last president to be re-elected was Jacques Chirac in 2002, after the referendum to reduce the French president's term of office from seven to five years.
According to the average of last week's polls, Emmanuel Macron is expected to garner, in the first round of the election, about 26% of the vote, Marine Le Pen 22.6% and left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon 16.4%.
According to the average of last week's polls, Emmanuel Macron is expected to garner, in the first round of the election, about 26%, Marine Le Pen 22.6% and left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon 16.4%. The other runners-up are below 10%, namely the far-right candidate Eric Jemour 9.3%, Valerie Pécres of the right 8.8%, Yannick Jadeau of the Greens 5.1% and the socialist Anne Indalgo just 2.1%.
Although the last five years in France have been marked by major events that sparked controversy, such as the "Yellow Vests" protests, the murder by Islamist terrorists of the teacher Samuel Patti, the restrictions imposed due to the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the election period has been particularly subdued. Few election rallies, an absence of public political debates and, of course, pollsters predicting record abstention rates.
Instability has been the main feature of this election period. With the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and as France held the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, Emmanuel Macron looked the clear favourite. His refusal to enter the election battle early on has alienated even loyal voters, and his re-election, which seemed certain until a month ago, is becoming less and less certain. His main rival, Madame Marine Le Pen, has managed to exploit another key consequence of the war. The reduction in the purchasing power of French citizens. Something that has been a major concern for citizens throughout the five years and has been exacerbated by rising energy prices and inflation.
Marine Le Pen was seen by some political analysts as a done deal after her huge defeat to Emmanuel Macron in the second round of the 2017 presidential election, but since then she has tried hard to completely change her image. She has stopped talking about France's exit from the eurozone, posted pictures of her cats on social media, and did not hesitate to post a picture of her hugging a young girl wearing a Muslim headscarf. While immigration and internal security remain at the heart of her policies, the issue of price competitiveness and the purchasing power of French people dominates her agenda, promising to cut VAT on energy from 20% to 5.5%. At the same time, the emergence of Eric Jemour was an opportunity for Marine Le Pen, allowing him to bid on far-right rhetoric, as Marine Le Pen knows that most of his voters will turn to her in the second round of the elections.
The second-round showdown
In this second and decisive round, to be held on Orthodox Easter Day, 24 April, the voters of the remaining candidates will decide the outcome. In 2017, Emmanuel Macron managed to garner an impressive 66%, as most voters on the right and left turned not necessarily for the French president, but mainly against Marine Le Pen. Something that seems less certain this year. The President of France has such great powers that it is customary in the country to say that every five years the citizens elect their King. And the two-round election system means that in the first of these, citizens vote for the candidate they want and in the second they vote against the candidate they don't want.
According to the latest polls, and in a country where pollsters are considered to be highly authoritative, 29% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters will vote for Emmanuel Macron in the second round, compared to 37% of Communist voters and 65% of Green voters. Centre-right voters are expected to vote for Macron at 50%, while he will even receive votes from a small percentage of Eric Jemour voters.
Based on the polls, about 50% of respondents say they will not vote for Le Pen under any circumstances, while the corresponding figure for President Macron is 38.5%. It is worth noting that a large percentage of left-wing voters believe that the policies of Macron and Le Pen do not differ in any way.
Abstention is of course expected to have a very large impact on the result, but Ms Le Pen's main supporters are to be found in social groups that traditionally abstain from elections, such as young people, the less educated and people on low incomes.
Nothing at the moment suggests that Ms Le Pen will make it to the Elysée Palace, but uncertainty is the "protagonist" of this election.
Source.gr
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