Fear, suspicion, anxiety, nervousness. These are the emotions with which the Belarusian political class has been walking since last weekend, as the sudden death of the country's 64-year-old Foreign Minister, Vladimir Makei, "shuffled the deck", causing deep concern about the future of the war in Ukraine, and that of its main protagonists.
Healthy and "war-ready" a few days before he was to end up flying his country's military aircraft, Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei died of natural causes according to the official version, although behind the scenes rumours of his assassination are rampant.
The mystery surrounding his death was further sparked by the laconic condolence statement by his alter ego of decades, namely the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, the silence of the minister's 44-year-old widow, Vera Mackey about the incident and especially the draconian security measures taken by the Belarusian leader the day after the death of his closest associate, who played the role of Minsk's intermediary and exclusive "messenger" to the West.
Apart from being Lukashenko's heir apparent, Vladimir Mackey was one of the few high-ranking Belarusian political figures not in the Russian sphere of influence, which intensifies speculation that his loss constitutes a "signal" to his political boss, Alexander Lukashenko, to remain tied to the Kremlin's "chariot" to the end.
The latter reportedly replaced all his cooks, servants and guards the day after McKay's assassination, and proceeded to upgrade the security measures of his children, fearing the sudden loss of a loved one.
This is because Vladimir Makei's presence at the helm of Belarusian foreign policy in recent years ensured Minsk's ability to communicate independently with the West and China away from the watchful Russian gaze, with his death a "reminder", according to many analysts, of Moscow's zero tolerance for any Belarusian deviations from the central line.
Especially at a time when President Alexander Lukashenko was reportedly being pushed by the Kremlin towards his country's entry into the war in Ukraine, in which he had avoided getting involved centrally by supporting the Russian offensive and lines of command regionally.
With Vladimir McKay dead, however, the West has practically no direct, Belarusian interlocutor, at a time when the processes for launching a constructive dialogue between Russia and Ukraine are intensifying. Kiev was alarmed by the sudden loss of the Belarusian foreign minister, as Moscow's political control of Minsk is strengthened, while Belarus is deprived of any maneuverability vis-à-vis the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.
Nevzlin: FSB poison
At the same time, a new dimension to McKay's death is provided by Leonid Nevzlin, an exiled oligarch who opposes Russian President Vladimir Putin, who claimed that the Belarusian Foreign Minister "died as a result of poisoning developed in a special FSB laboratory." Nevzlin cited sources "close to the Russian special services", claiming that "the clinical picture in such cases corresponds to death by stroke or heart failure".
In Nevzlin's view, the death of McKay, essentially the second most important man in the state, "has caused panic in Belarusian nomenklatura circles," not excluding Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
According to the General SVR channel on Telegram, which reportedly has access to "closed" information, McKay's death has severed Belarus' remaining relations with Western powers, "seeing" the Kremlin's finger behind the unexpected event. "It was planned, prepared and implemented on the personal initiative of Russian President Vladimir Putin," the Russian channel added. In such a case, Vladimir Mackay's overall track record takes on a different weight, as he was a highly experienced diplomat and intelligence veteran, i.e. a person trained to successfully deal with sometimes obvious and sometimes less obvious adversaries and risks to his life.
Secret diplomacy
To the unanswered questions raised by the sudden loss of the Belarusian Foreign Minister is added that of the given timing, given that the war in Ukraine is at a very critical stage. In fact, rumours are growing that the deceased was directly involved in the composition of a secret peace plan to end the conflict in Ukraine, meeting the Vatican representative on the eve of his death, Ante Jozic, while yesterday he was to meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, and today he was to attend the OSCE Summit in Poland, which is attended by delegations from the world's most powerful states, except for Mr.
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