"The Ukrainians seem to learn faster from the gaps, mistakes and omissions and adapt in real time to the new - each time - condition that Russia creates against them" is one of the conclusions that several analysts have come to about the course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ten months after its start. Whether the pace of perception and reorientation of the actions of each of the two parties involved, namely Russia and Ukraine, will determine the final winner of the war confrontation will be seen in the coming months.
What was not apparent until yesterday, however, is Ukraine's willingness to play a new role, that of aggressor in the run-up to winter, "short-circuiting" the image of "mighty Russia". In addition to the traditional defense with conventional weapons and with the pain of its thousands of dead evident, Kiev seems to have added another stunning blow to the record of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which already counts the "orphan" strikes on the Nord Stream pipelines and the Crimean road and railway bridge.
In particular, the double strike on the Diaghilev and Engels air bases respectively in central Russia, admitted by the country's Defense Ministry, has brought the Kremlin to the doorstep with the possibility that the Ukrainians have radically changed strategy, attempting stunning strikes in the "heart" of Russia to make it difficult for Russian President Vladimir Putin to legitimize his domestic operations. This is because the double strike yesterday occurred to an equal number of Russian strategic bomber units at a distance of about 600 kilometers from the border[/B] of the two countries and not around their common, border line, upsetting Russian public opinion, which regarded the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an expansionist operation far from Russian soil.
With three dead, however, confirmed on the Russian side (and seven with the wounded) and Moscow openly admitting the attack, Kiev's message to the West boils down to the need for patience, but also confidence in the possibility of a Ukrainian victory, as the real state of the Russian armed forces has been far removed from their assessments over the past few years.
"The Kiev regime () attempted to carry out strikes with Soviet drones on the Diaghilev airbase in Ryazan province and the Engels base in Saratov province." the Russian Defence Ministry said in a statement yesterday, adding that three Russian soldiers were "fatally wounded", four other civilians were injured and two aircraft suffered minor damage.
New drones
The double, hybrid strike has intrigued several analysts, as they speculated that the drones that struck the... "parking lots" of Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers may be the drones designed by Kiev months ago through the state defense company Ukroboronprom, with a maximum speed of 1.000 km and capable of being equipped with a 75 kg nuclear warhead.
Judging from the fact that the two strikes are included in the regional range of the new, unmanned, Ukrainian drones, suspicions of Kiev's "finger" have been rekindled, when it comes to drones of purely Ukrainian design - and not of the Turkish Bayraktar type - which do not appear to have been used in any other similar attack in the past.
The operation
In addition to airborne drone operations, this particular operation required good knowledge of Russian air defense gaps, as well as observation of the area from the ground, betraying an organized and technically sound raid against Russian strategic bombing. Therefore, the blow is also heavy from a psychological point of view for the Russians. At the same time, however, it is also a blow to the Russians' own strategic bomber force, which has to immediately repair the two that were hit, with a total of around 60-70.
Most importantly, however, the strikes on the two Russian military bases echo Kiev's new "doctrine", which aims to limit Russian missile attacks on civilians ahead of winter, while undoubtedly the success of the targets has boosted Ukrainian morale, indicating that they will continue to strike at Russia's critical infrastructure during the winter. Besides, the attack deep into Russian territory, i.e. some 600 kilometres from the Russia-Ukraine border line constitutes the first major deficit in Russian air defence, prompting the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to drive before the TV cameras on parts of the - now restored - bridge linking Russia and Crimea, in a show of assertiveness and prestige.
Russia, however, is now being asked to revise its security measures in general and for many kilometres inside its territory, since within 600 kilometres of the two air bases there are many airfields, command centres and logistic support centres of the Russian armed forces, i.e. much closer than the bases hit yesterday.
For their part, the Ukrainians deny any involvement in the operation, which, however, appears to have been extremely well thought out and planned by regular army units, which cooperated methodically.
The blackouts
At the same time, the rapid escalation reportedly attempted by the Ukrainian side firing on Russian, air bases is to some extent dictated for Kiev by current developments, as warnings of power cuts were universal yesterday, with Ukraine's Ukrenergo describing the situation as "difficult but under control". The problems in Ukraine's power grid began in mid-October, when Moscow began tooling around in the winter, problems that are worsening as Russia cracks down on its energy infrastructure. Already, the operator of Ukraine's power grid, Ukrenergo, warned yesterday that there would be emergency power cuts across the country due to the new Russian strikes.
"Due to the consequences of the bombings (...) to maintain the balance between production and consumption, a system of emergency outages will be implemented in all regions of Ukraine. Electricity will be allocated on a priority basis to key infrastructure," the company announced via Telegram. However, "some power plants will not be able to fully operate for some time" and "combined with the frost intensifying over the next 24 hours, this will lead to a shortfall in the system," the company explained, disclosing that the operation to restore the faults is underway. In any case, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian attacks on this infrastructure were "inevitable". Earlier yesterday, Kiev said it intercepted more than 60 of the nearly 70 missiles fired by the Russians aimed at plunging this winter into darkness and cold.
Rain of missiles
Meanwhile, sirens sounded again yesterday in Ukraine ahead of the eighth wave of missile attacks in eight weeks. The bulk of the attack is located in the east of the country, making widespread power outages almost a daily occurrence, although it is estimated that the intensity of the upcoming attack will be more muted than all those that preceded it.
Source: protothema.gr
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