For about eight months, Ukraine has been in a state of war. Yet it has managed to kill or severely injure 80,000 Russians, sink the flagship of the Russian fleet, and its air force is still trying to fend off some of the Russian interference. Overall, Ukraine is defying expectations and is poised to win the war.
According to the Economist, there are three scenarios that analysts are coming up with for next year. With winter just around the corner, Russia will start to mobilise even more. On the other hand, Republicans will block arms shipments to Ukraine, while at the same time Europe will be running out of supplies.
How can Russia win?
In the first scenario, Russia manages to win despite the course it has charted so far. The Russian army stabilizes the front lines during the winter months and builds new battalions with new recruits. Meanwhile, Republicans in America are blocking new arms packages for Ukraine as supplies from Europe run out. By spring, the new Russian units begin the offensive, forcing the now "tired" Ukrainian military to respond.
Russian drones continue to pound Ukraine's energy and water infrastructure. As summer arrives, Ukraine is on the back foot. Russia occupies Kryvyi Rih, a key industrial city north of Kherson, and Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk. Western countries are urging Ukraine to accept the Russian ceasefire proposal. Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, has no choice but to accept.
Scenario with little chance of verification In a stalemate the Ukrainian war
In the second scenario, the two countries reach a stalemate. Russia mobilizes hundreds of thousands of young men, but cannot turn them into effective fighters. The best of the trainers are on the front line. Experienced officers are dead or already deployed. The recruits are being formed into basic light infantry units, without armored vehicles and unfit to go on the offensive - but they can fill trenches and human fortifications."
Russia, having announced its withdrawal from the city of Kherson in November, is safely evacuating the 30,000 or so troops it had on the west bank of the Dnieper River. They retreated eastwards, leaving behind vast quantities of weapons. It is a triumph for Ukraine, but ultimately puts Russia in a stronger military position, with the river protecting its left flank. The Ukrainian advance is slowed to a crawl. Ukrainian troops take heavy casualties for every kilometer of territory gained.
Unable to win the war on the battlefield, Mr. Putin then tries to prolong it long enough to undermine Ukraine's economy, deflate its morale through strikes on civilian infrastructure and exhaust its partners. Europe is struggling to fill its gas storage facilities during 2023, causing blackouts as winter arrives. Putin plans to hold out until late 2024, when he hopes Donald Trump will retake the White House and end support for Ukraine. But it's a high-stakes gamble: Russian opinion is turning against the war, its economy is shrinking and Mr Putin looks increasingly vulnerable.
Scenario with a higher chance of coming trueA very dangerous scenario
The third scenario is the most encouraging, but also the most dangerous. Ukraine maintains the initiative and momentum, causing great damage to Russian forces as they leave Kherson and then bringing their long-range Himar missiles
within range of Crimea. The Russian lines in Luhansk collapse, with Ukraine retaking Severodonetsk and then moving rapidly further east.
As Russian casualties mount, the recruits refuse to fight. Western countries rush new air defense systems into Ukraine, blunting the impact of Russia's terrorist tactics.
In the spring, Zelensky orders his army to open a new front in Zaporizhzhya. Five brigades cross Russian lines, cutting Putin's land bridge to Crimea and encircling Mariupol by summer. Ukraine moves its Himar missile launchers south, targeting ports, bases and depots in Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine threatens to enter the peninsula. Mr Putin issues an ultimatum: stop or face the use of nuclear weapons.
Victory is in sight. But so are the dangers!
Source: in.gr
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