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[Cyprus Times] How the Greece-Egypt rapprochement will evolve and what is Greece's "trump card"

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Greece, as an EU member state, is becoming an attractive partner for Egypt Questions are being raised as to whether it is enough that the ice between Egypt and Turkey is being broken.

Easier and less easy have never been their relations for a long time, but now Egypt and Turkey want to put them on a new footing, to make a fresh start. Specifically, according to Deutsche Welle, this is what Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan said recently at the opening ceremony of the Football World Cup in Qatar. Their handshake in the presence of Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and the announcement that they want to improve relations in the future made the rounds. And indeed, shortly after the symbolic handshake, activity was recorded.

According to news agencies, intelligence delegations[/B] from both sides met in Egypt over the weekend for "important talks," a senior Turkish official told Reuters.

Both sides raised military, political and trade issues, including energy projects," the official said. In addition, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Monday (28 November) that both countries want to re-establish full diplomatic relations which they severed in 2013 at the ambassadorial level. Immediately after the meeting between the two heads of state, the Egyptian foreign ministry also announced that further steps will be taken

The aim is to normalise bilateral relations after "years of tension", although "talks so far have not yet led to a settlement of the existing differences of opinion", thus registering the existence of difficulties. And indeed, the list of disagreements and rivalries between the two countries is long and dates back to 2013.

"Breaking the ice" between Turkey and Egypt, but is it enough?

Back then, the Turkish government had repeatedly described as "illegal" the ouster of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, who comes from the army and the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood. Erdogan himself had called al-Sisi a "coup d'état." After Egypt included the Muslim Brotherhood in its list of terrorist organisations and banned it, many Muslim Brotherhoods found protection in Turkey. For its part, the Egyptian government has accused Ankara of supporting Islamist organizations - especially the Muslim Brotherhood. Their relations have remained strained for years.

In the spring of 2019, Erdogan even said that he had no intention of reconciling with al-Sisi. "I refuse to meet with an anti-democrat who condemned Morsi and his friends to prison," Erdogan said at the time. More recently, however, Ankara has asked Egyptian television stations operating in Turkey and affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood or other opposition groups to moderate their criticism of the Egyptian government.



"In fact, the possibilities of the Egyptian opposition are increasingly limited," says Christian Brackel, head of the German Heinrich Böll Foundation's office in Turkey. "Members of the Egyptian opposition are now toying with the idea of settling elsewhere and it cannot be ruled out that this trend could intensify," speculates Brackel."

But in the Libyan civil war the two countries also treated each other as rivals in the political and economic spheres. While Egypt - which, it should be noted, maintains a staff member with the rank of ambassador in Tripoli, unlike the headless Greek embassy - supported the strongman of the government-in-exile in Tobruk, General Khalifa Haftar, to prevent with his help a possible formation of a government involving Islamists, Turkey stood by the then prime minister of the internationally recognized government, Fayez al-Sharay.

With him Ankara signed in 2019 the controversial Turkish-Colibian pact on the demarcation of the two countries' maritime zones, which Berlin also rejected as inconsistent with the Law of the Sea. Under it, Turkish sovereignty would extend to Crete, where Turkey suspects there are significant gas deposits. So far, Egypt has clearly sided with Greece in the dispute over gas reserves.

In the summer of 2020, the two countries signed an agreement in which they defined their economic zones in the eastern Mediterranean. The Turkish government had even criticized it as a "pirate deal". Now, however, Ankara appears to be increasingly turning to reconciliation and the search for new partners.

Similar signals are being sent in the direction of two of Egypt's traditional partners, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Brackel notes. For years, these three countries have been partners in the Saudi-led international military coalition against the Houthi insurgency in Yemen. Moreover, the two Gulf states share the Egyptian government's attitude towards the Muslim Brotherhood, in which they see an ideological and political challenge and therefore a threat to their own authoritarian power.

Greece's "asset"

Greece's "asset" as an EU country makes it an attractive partner for Egypt. Due to high inflation, the Turkish government feels obliged to adjust its course. "It is from these Gulf countries that significant financial injections are coming into Turkey ahead of the Turkish election period, so it would be highly likely that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have made the resolution of the Turkish-Egyptian problems a precondition."

At the same time, the two Gulf states are aware of Turkey's geostrategic importance, according to an analysis by the online magazine Al Monitor, and they also see the many investment opportunities offered by the Turkish market."

At the same time, the two Gulf states are aware of Turkey's geostrategic importance, according to an analysis by the online magazine Al Monitor, and they also see the many investment opportunities offered by the Turkish market. Erdogan has already visited the UAE this February and signed several cooperation agreements with the two countries. This should also have encouraged Egypt in expanding trade relations with Turkey. According to a study by the Carnegie Middle East Center, the volume of trade between the two countries has actually more than doubled in the last 15 years. In this way, both countries are trying to compensate for supply problems from Asia, particularly China, caused by the pandemic, the English-language version of the Turkish daily Al Sabah reported.

But in the eastern Mediterranean, Egypt and Turkey are also aiming for understanding. "This is the most important issue for the two countries," economist Ahmet Zikrala, who teaches at Al Azhar University, tells Al Sabah. "Overall, however, the Cairo government is likely to have much less interest in re-engagement with Ankara than Ankara itself has for Cairo," Brakel argues. "Because Cairo still has an important reason to rely on Greece rather than Turkey in the Mediterranean region. Greece is an EU country. Greece offers Egypt access to the European market. This also makes it a much more attractive partner than Turkey could ever be."

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