A "hot" summer for Greek-Turkish relations seems to be what is coming. We recall that this assessment comes not only from analysts in Greece, but also from the German press.
The "mobility" in the Aegean, moreover, is more than evident. As it became known yesterday, a new NAVTEX was issued by the Izmir Station for hydrographic surveys of the research vessel TSG Cesme in two areas in the centre of the Aegean Sea west of the 25th meridian between Skyros - Agios Stratis and Lesvos. The searches were scheduled to be carried out from yesterday until 14 June.
According to Athens, in this area the right to issue notices belongs to Greece and as these are hydrographic surveys that do not concern the continental shelf, it is estimated that this is another attempt by Turkey to provoke and test Greek reflexes.
A few hours before the NAVTEX, a new Turkish NOTAM was issued for a major search and rescue exercise.
A few hours before the NAVTEX, a new Turkish NOTAM was issued for a major search and rescue exercise. In particular, on a symbolic date as May 29 is the anniversary of the fall of Constantinople, the Turks are effectively blockading the entire eastern Aegean.
Ankara has illegally blockaded five areas and among them runways through which they require passenger and commercial aircraft to maintain safe distances.
The response to the NOTAM from the Greek side was immediate, stressing the illegality of the case and the invalidity of the exercise, as Greece is solely responsible for the search and rescue in the centre of the Aegean.
The Armed Forces
As Kathimerini notes, Athens initially decided to reduce the readiness times of the Armed Forces units stationed or stationed on the East Aegean islands. The aim is to send a clear message of vigilance to Ankara.
The Greek side, moreover, has chosen not to raise the tone and not to enter into a rhetorical escalation contest.
According to the same report, Athens also expects an intensification of the Turkish attempt to describe Greece as a "challenger" to international conventions and international law, even trying to involve countries in the region. Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu's attack on Greece over the name dispute with North Macedonia was indicative.
Turkey's Foreign Minister also used the occasion to attack the EU, while he also took aim at Bulgaria. "The conditions imposed by some EU member states, especially on North Macedonia and the Macedonians, in order to get a negotiation date and not an accession date, are not acceptable. I do not want to go into these details. Among them there are friendly and neighbouring countries, but we do not want a country to change its name, nor do we say to a country 'you, in fact, are Turks, so accept that you are Turks'," Mevlut Cavusoglu said, among other things.
In Athens, Athens was prepared for the Turkish foreign minister's statements, as it is expected that at the upcoming Ohrid summit (June 8), he will attempt to attack Greece using historical analogies.
It is worth noting, however, that a Turkish UAV made 28 flights over Makronissi and Anthropophagi yesterday, with Turkey continuing the same tactics at the operational level.
How far will Erdogan take this?
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to appear to be moving on all fronts and is attempting to show a "tough face" ahead of the upcoming elections. On the one hand he presents himself as a mediator in the war between Russia and Ukraine, while on the other hand he vetoes Sweden and Finland's membership of NATO, announces a new operation in Syria and personally attacks Kyriakos Mitsotakis after his statements to Congress.
Commenting on these choices, Die Welt newspaper wrote that these moves "show that in the field of foreign policy Erdogan is following a path of escalation at a time he has consciously chosen."
The German newspaper argues that "in addition to security issues, domestic political considerations seem to play an important role for Erdogan. A year before the elections, his party is losing ground in the polls, while inflation in the country is hovering at 70 percent. Previous military operations in Syria had improved his standing in the polls. War is uniting the country."
In short, the Turkish president is attempting to leverage tactics that worked for him and his party in the past and is expected to do the same in the coming months.
"There are several indications that the pressure in the Aegean will increase"
Sotiris Serbos, Associate Professor of International Politics at Democritus University and Yannis Baltzois, Lieutenant General (retired), spoke on MEGA Weekend about the developments in Greek-Turkish relations. and president of ELISME.
"There are several indications that the pressure towards the Aegean will increase. It is a very interesting juncture in Turkey, as foreign and domestic politics intersect in Turkey. Erdogan, with early elections in Turkey on the table, and because the economy will remain the elephant in the room, is trying to exploit nationalism."
"Greece has made a significant investment in its armed forces. The issue is to have credible deterrence if and when we are challenged. At the current juncture, the credibility of all of us is on the table. Both Greece and its partners and allies," he added.
"The Turks know that any attempt at a hot incident will be painful for them. Greek armed forces can deliver deadly blows. They would like a controlled hot incident, but that cannot happen. We know very well how to deal with such situations. We want reliable deterrence. We must stress to our neighbours that we have red lines, and if they violate them they will suffer the consequences. Deterrence does not mean war. Couldn't we have shot down the first drone that passed over the Greek islands? We would have passed a message," he said. He is leading us to a buffer zone in the summer, I think we will have some incidents, I hope there will not be a hot incident, but the Greek armed forces can deal with the situation," he concluded.
Source: in.gr
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