The result of last month's midterm elections in the US is now clear. From next January the Republicans will have at least marginal control of the House of Representatives under its new composition. The Democrats managed to retain control of the Senate by a slim 50 to 49 majority.
There is, however, one seat that is still undecided: that in Georgia.
Its fate is being decided today at the polls in the runoff election being held in the southeastern state.
Much more will be decided by the election results, however, than which of the two parties manages to win the seat...
The opponents are Democratic incumbent Senator and Baptist pastor Raphael Warnock and the outspoken Republican, former professional football star Herschel Walker.
First African-American senator in state history, the 53-year-old Warnock and is seeking re-election, as on November 8 he failed to secure more than 50% of the vote as required by Georgia state election law.
He secured 49.4% then and lost by less than 22.000 votes, compared to 48.5% for 60-year-old Walker.
Unlike the first round, which included other candidates, independents or from smaller non-parliamentary parties, today's second round is being contested with the knowledge that even the last vote counts.
Pastor vs. football star
This is essentially the second election for the Georgia Senate seat in two years.
Democrat Raphael Warnock was elected in 2021 in a special election to fill the vacant seat (the previously Republican incumbent, Senator Johnny Isaacson, resigned for health reasons).
Although a senator's term is normally a six-year term, filling the seat meant that that term would expire this year and the fate of the seat would have to be decided again in the November midterm elections.
As it was, with the runoff finally set for December 6, in a state that has offered electoral thrillers in recent years.
In the 2020 presidential election, it took lengthy recounts before Joe Biden's victory over Donald Trump was confirmed in Georgia: the first Democratic presidential candidate in the state since 1992.
Now polls give a lead - though not a comfortable one - to Pastor Warnock with 51%, compared to 49% for former football star Walker.
At stake for both is both turnout at the polls and winning over wavering independent voters.
On the former, an early controversy has already erupted, with Georgia Democrats winning, at least on points. They sued the state's Republican governor, Brian Kemp, over a law he signed last year restricting the possibility of early voting and, through it, the chances of participation by the poorest classes.
Ultimately, the Democrats won the appeal, in second place. It remains unknown, however, how much and what ultimate impact this court victory will have on their election results.
Dollar cranks
The campaign scandals that have exposed the ultra-conservative former football player's pharisaism - from allegations of domestic violence to forcing his mistress to have an abortion while he disavows abortion - don't seem to faze his voting base in a deeply conservative state.
This was, of course, helped by Walker's rabid Republican support, with Donald Trump staying out of the campaign spotlight this time...
In general, Georgia was "rained" with money, as both Democrats and Republicans spent millions of dollars in this "hot" second-round showdown, bombarding Georgia voters non-stop with campaign spots.
Recalling the climate of polarization, most "dripped" venom against the opponent.
In total, an estimated $80 million was spent through official and unofficial party "channels" by both camps in the purchase of television time.
And if you add to that the amounts already spent on the two men's campaigns in the run-up to the November 8 midterm elections - estimated at $262 million by the NGO OpenSecrets - then this Georgia election is shaping up to be one of the most expensive state-level elections in the US.
The biggest stakes
The only certainty is that outcome will not determine which party controls the Senate. With the 50 seats they already control, Democrats can rely on the vote of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in the event of a tie anyway.
However, if they manage to boost their majority by one seat through the Georgia runoff, the balance will be 51-49 in the House.
They will thus have more leeway, if not to advance their political agenda, at least to avoid the Republicans' legislative "stumbling blocks" in the House of Representatives.
In practical terms, the election of Democrat Warnock will provide the Biden administration with a "safety cushion" against the 1-2 usual intra-party Democratic "rebels", with the most undisciplined, controversial and conservative Senator in their ranks being Joe Manchin.
And not only...
Securing the Georgia seat is considered crucial for the Democrats in view of the important electoral battles in 2024, when - together with the US presidency - the balance of power in Congress will be decided anew.
They will be determined by the election of new members of the House of Representatives (their term of office is two years), but above all by the renewal of a third of the Senate seats.
Of the 33 seats that will be put back on the ballot, the Democrats will have to defend 23 that they currently hold. Already considered contested are Montana, Ohio and West Virginia: three states where Trump had secured a comfortable lead in the 2020 race for the White House.
In the Republican camp, on the other hand, a defeat for the Trumpian Walker is expected to intensify the turmoil and the confusion that already exists in the party.
Crunch time
Donald Trump's candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 is now dividing them more and more deeply.
All the more so after his recent dinner with neo-fascists and anti-Semites and his subsequent extreme anti-democratic post on his Truth Social platform, in which he called for the abolition of the US Constitution and the annulment of the result of the 2020 presidential election, claiming that he was the "rightful winner".
CNN political editor Stephen Collinson calls it a "fantasy" that "remains dangerous" in his analysis. The former president "seems to be ignoring the feelings of voters who rejected the naysayers in the midterm elections," he points out.
"He may also be reflecting his desperation," he observes, "causing strife and anger in the ranks of his core supporters to inject some energy into a so-far meaningless run for the White House in 2024."
His increasingly extremist rhetoric is expected to strengthen the position of those within the Republican Party calling for a change of course. However, the fact that there has so far been no unanimous condemnation of Trump from all of the party's top brass does not simply reveal their political timidity. It portends even bleaker times for the US.
Source: in.gr
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