We would like a first comment on the French elections. What do you think will be the result in the second round on April 24?
I think that in the second round the democratic reflexes of the French people, who have a great tradition of democracy and its principles, will come into play. I believe that the French people will re-elect Emmanuel Macron. It will not be as easy for him to win as in 2017, but I believe that the French will block the way for the far right.
Ton the first round there were many political upheavals. What message did the French voters send?
The election brought big changes, the two traditional parties that ruled France. The traditional Republican right and the Socialist Party have disappeared from the political scene and that means we will see a completely different political picture next. We have also had a significant rise of Melanson's Left, which is close to the Communist Party.
To what do you attribute the rise of the far right?
In my view, it is mainly due to the social and economic problems facing a large part of the French population that the government has failed to solve. It is also the immigration problem. Where there is poverty and unemployment it is easy for far-right movements to blame foreigners. I would have to say that something to which Marine Le Pen's success is due is that she has rounded off her political discourse and emphasised accuracy and social problems that people are concerned about. But I think that these days Macron will have to do battle with Mélenchon's left-wing voters. It is worth noting that while the socialists and the traditional right called on their voters to vote for Macron in the second round, Mélenchon called on the 22% who voted for him not to vote for Le Pen, which means it will take a lot of effort for Macron to appeal to a large portion of the left-wing voters and garner the shortfall.
Do you see Emmanuel Macron becoming the leader of the EU after the departure of Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, who was the leader in Europe?
I think in recent years the political leadership in the EU was taken by Macron and he proved his leadership skills in the war in Ukraine. I also think that Macron today is the only leader who has a vision for the EU and indeed if the Russian invasion of Ukraine had not broken out, he would have succeeded in promoting the idea of the full integration of the EU and the creation of a common European army in a now autonomous EU. It was no coincidence that a few years ago he called NATO 'brain dead'. Unfortunately, however, Macron's vision, embraced by many, was buried after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which effectively put Europe back under America's hat.
Western analysts believe that Germany and France could have prevented war in Ukraine if they took care to allay Russia's concerns and gave assurances that Ukraine would not join NATO.
I remember after Macron's five-hour meeting with Putin, the Russian media reported information from the Russian Foreign Ministry that assurances from France or the EU that Ukraine would not join NATO were not enough for Russia. Russia wanted assurances from America, which is why, if you remember, in the letter Putin sent to Biden, Putin included among Russia's demands a written commitment from the United States that Ukraine would not join NATO.
How do you see the war unfolding? Will we have a ceasefire soon or will the war be long term?
First of all, I would like to say that nothing justifies an invasion and violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of an independent state. Beyond that, I estimate that Russia will be ready for real negotiations and a ceasefire after it occupies eastern Ukraine, including Odessa. I estimate that as the war progresses the goal is to cut off Ukraine's access to the sea while expanding control through the autonomy of eastern Ukraine. This is my guess, without having any information. To achieve this, however, I fear that it will take some time because the superpowers end a war not when they lose but when they win, in order to preserve their prestige on the international stage. Given these facts, I am concerned that the war will be much harder in eastern Ukraine in the coming period, with many more casualties.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a resurgence of Cold War conditions. How do you see the next day in the international environment?
I think Russia's invasion of Ukraine achieved something Putin would never have wanted and something America could not achieve: The coalescence of NATO, possibly its enlargement, with Sweden and Finland, and most importantly the unification of the West, including the EU, under American hegemony, which brings a halt to the EU's attempt at autonomy.
This is certainly something Russia would not have wanted. What we cannot know is how long this cohesion will last because of the financial costs paid by the various countries. Arguments have already started in relation to sanctions, on gas and oil. So the coherence is more of a reflex, whether it will last will be seen in the course of time. On the other hand, I think something will happen that the EU and the US would not want. If the sanctions continue for a long time, Russia will have no choice but to make a strategic alliance with China, even if it is the weak partner. And we may see other Asian countries joining this alliance, such as India, which will divide the world no longer in 20th century terms of capitalism-communism and East-West, but something else. And of course this is not to the benefit of the planet, because there will be a series of economic problems, especially if the sanctions are extended to China, which will affect the citizens.
Without being navel-gazing, I would like your assessment of the position of Cyprus in this context that is taking shape. Cyprus has traditionally maintained very good relations with Russia and at the same time is being asked to align itself with decisions of the EU, to which it belongs. How do you see Nicosia's handling so far at this level? Do you think they are right?
I think both yes and no. Cyprus could not help but condemn the invasion, we are also a victim country of invasion and occupation. Cyprus ought to have aligned itself with the EU, but we don't need to be more royal than the king. In other words, when countries like Germany put their national interests first in order to avoid further sanctions, we should also think about our own national interests. On the other hand, sanctions will also affect us significantly. Manipulations such as the Foreign Minister's statement that we might join NATO, that 'maybe the time has come for us to join NATO', further hurt our relations with Russia, which would not want Cyprus, in its geostrategic position, to become a member of NATO. First of all, there is no chance of Cyprus becoming a member of NATO, this is just a piece of literature that only comes at a cost, because Turkey and others will exercise their veto. On the other hand, I don't see how NATO membership would serve us, because we are not threatened by a third country, the threat comes from a NATO member state.
What do you think Cyprus should do?
I think that Cyprus should develop a comprehensive strategy. After the end of the war, windows will open again. We will have to be quick and flexible to take advantage of any windows that open. But, offering something that will not be appreciated, such as sending weapons, for example. What weapons would we send? And how much would Cyprus' contribution affect the war? How much would Cyprus' contribution be appreciated? Nothing. It would not be appreciated. On the contrary, it would create more hostility with Russia. It is clear to me that the strategic ally of the United States is Turkey. It is also a very important partner in NATO, they want to keep it away from Russia. In these circumstances it makes no sense for us to say that we want to join NATO.
Do you see Cyprus can play a bridging role because of its EU membership and its very good relations with Russia?
It is something we could explore behind the scenes, diplomatically. Small states can play a role because big states are not bothered if a small state is credited with a success. For example, we saw Norway playing such a role between Palestinians and Israelis. In the case of Cyprus the thorn is that as a member of the EU we also applied sanctions, which may have annoyed Russia in a possible mediation role. But it is something that would be worth exploring diplomatically.
How do you see the Cyprus problem in this setting? And I say that because, as I said before, both the EU and the US are ready to give gifts to Turkey, and they are, in order to keep it away from Russia. Why are they forgiving her for not implementing the sanctions against Russia while they themselves are paying a heavy blow from the sanctions? Because they are afraid of a Turkey closer to Russia. Therefore, if an effort to resolve the Cyprus problem begins now, the pressure will not be directed towards Turkey but towards us. Unfortunately, both the EU and the US are not going to satisfy us but Turkey. The conditions are not at all favourable for the development of a new initiative on the Cyprus problem. We should wait for the situation to normalise and then take an initiative.
Do you not expect an initiative before the end of President Anastasiades' term of office?
I do not rule out an initiative on Cyprus, but to the satisfaction of Turkey. I want to remind you of the conditions that prevailed in 2003, the year the Annan Plan came about. Turkey did not allow the Americans to use the air base at Incirlik, which particularly annoyed the United States, and relations between the two countries deteriorated. However, in order to restore relations, they offered them certain gifts, among which was the Cyprus problem, a bad solution. But there is also the risk, which I have spoken about many times, that Erdogan will proceed with the annexation of the occupied territories in 2023. The timing is very bad, we have had very bad precedents, such as the annexation of Crimea, Israel's seizure of part of the Golan Heights and so on. If Russia succeeds in the autonomy of eastern Ukraine, you can see that a political ecosystem is created to encourage Turkey, or push Turkey, to annex the occupied territories.
This is something that obviously the next President of the Republic will be called upon to manage. How do you see the electoral scene?
It is a very fluid scene at the moment, the non-cooperation of the opposition parties is more to the advantage of the candidates of the government side. But I think things are fluid. We still have a long way to go, elections are a marathon, not a hundred-metre road. The elections will take place at a time of utmost devaluation of the parties, which will favour independent candidates.
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