The slow progress of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the collapse of the Russian economy create an environment where authoritarianism and repression are the only solution for Putin to retain power, writes the Financial Times.
Last summer he published a lengthy essay titled "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians," which was also a polemical manifesto, writes Gideon Rahman in the opinion piece.
But while studying history, Putin failed to notice a crucial recurring pattern: the role that failed wars have played in regime changes in Russia.
Lessons from the past
Defeat in World War I set the stage for the Russian Revolution in 1917. Moscow's humiliation in the 1904-1905 war with Japan also contributed to the outbreak of a failed revolution. The Crimean War of 1853-56 led to the death, probably by suicide, of Tsar Nicholas I. More recently, the war in Afghanistan was a major contributor to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. In the case of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government admits to having lost about 500 soldiers. But the actual numbers may be higher. Ludmila Narusova, a member of the Russian Senate, referred to a group of Russian soldiers with only four survivors. And the worst in terms of conflict is probably ahead.
Could a military failure topple the Russian government again? Most experts I spoke to believe that this is unlikely - at least in the short term.
[BR][BR]Established power
Ben Noble of University College London is wary of "claims that Putin will be overthrown by a coup or that the existing elite will be ousted by mass protests." Dominic Leuven, an authority on the fall of Tsarist Russia, is also wary of the possibility of a rapid collapse of the Putin system.
But thanks to Western sanctions, the economic blow to Russia from the Ukrainian war will be felt very soon. Twenty years of profits could disappear in a matter of weeks. Michael Bernstam of Stanford University believes that freezing the assets of Russia's central bank will soon result in the collapse of commercial banks and supply chains, undermining large parts of the Russian economy.
Goodbye West
The Russian middle class is used to a world of IKEA, iPhones, Visa credit cards and trips to Europe or the Persian Gulf countries. That world is a thing of the past. Many of the oligarchs who backed Putin to save their fortunes have lost their yachts and the businesses they built abroad.
Liberties won through sacrifice and contact with the outside world have also disappeared. In many ways, Russia is already more isolated than it was during the Cold War - when it was possible to travel to Eastern Europe and Soviet teams participated in the World Cup and the Olympics. Now Russia is banned from international sporting events and Aeroflot has cancelled international flights, except to neighbouring Belarus. This isolation is likely to continue for as long as the war or occupation of Ukraine continues.
In Russia itself, access to Facebook and foreign news sites such as the BBC is now impossible. Spreading "false information" about the war (which should not be called a war, but a special military operation) is punishable by 15 years in prison. Russia is now as authoritarian as China - but without a strong economy, foreign travel and consumer goods that help keep the Chinese middle class docile.
Putin's resort to repression reveals how uncomfortable he is about the situation at home. With the cronies and the urban middle class on pins and needles, the Russian dictator (because that's what he is now) can only rely on two groups: ordinary Russians living outside the big cities and a narrow circle of confidants.
Polls in Russia show that support for the war is high. But given the repression, the polls should not be considered reliable. Anecdotal evidence does show that many Russians, if not a majority, believe the Russian president's version of the war. State television controls the narrative of the Ukrainian war.
Yet reality - in the form of loss of life and economic poverty - may soon undermine the official narrative. Even so, public protests require extreme fortitude. Protesters risk being beaten, imprisoned or losing their jobs. The repression of last year's protests in Belarus shows that repression often works if it is ruthless enough.
Overthrow from within
Hopes for Putin's removal must rest on a coup from within. As political scientist Milan Svolik has observed, "the vast majority of dictators lose power to those inside the presidential palace rather than to the crowd outside." But Putin seems to be surrounded by confidants who embrace his nationalist and conspiratorial worldview and whose fate is closely tied to that of the leader.
Even if some within the inner circle have doubts, a move against Putin would still be extremely risky and difficult. The Russian leader has always looked out for his bodyguards - some of whom have become very wealthy.
In other parts of the world, dictators like Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe or Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela have condemned their countries to poverty and isolation but managed to stay in power for many years. Is such a thing possible in modern Russia? Can Putin once again imprison his compatriots behind an Iron Curtain?
The fate of Ukraine, Russia and much of the world will depend on the answer.
Source: in.gr
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