The two countries have made a historic "U-turn" and announced that they will apply to become members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, in a decision that has caused a "domino effect" of reactions and developments.
In fact, Russia - which has expressed its angry displeasure at this development, announcing that it will not stand idly by - has found an ally in Turkey, arguing that "our allies cannot support terrorist organisations".
This sudden conversion of Finland-Sweden, two countries whose strategic choice for many, many decades has been neutrality and non-participation in the Alliance, obviously has a reason: the violent invasion of Ukraine by their "neighbour" Russia. And, if anything, this abrupt change of direction marks major changes in the global geostrategic and geopolitical "map", as well as in the European security landscape.
Turkey's refusal to accept the two countries' NATO membership
However, this development was strongly resisted by Turkey, which cited support for terrorists (i.e. PKK) from the two countries.
In particular, the Turkish Foreign Minister stressed that it is "outrageous and unacceptable for our friends and allies to support the PKK terrorist organization," regarding Ankara's reservations about Sweden and Finland's upcoming NATO membership.
"Representatives of Sweden and Finland held meetings with members of the PKK and YPG, and Sweden also supplied them with weapons," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in Berlin on Sunday. He also suggested that the two countries should lift the ban on arms exports to Turkey and noted that a more conciliatory attitude was needed from Sweden.
Of course, the (negative) tone was first set by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had made it clear that Turkey did not view Finland-Sweden's NATO membership positively, saying the two countries "host many terrorist organizations."
Security guarantees and US optimism for consensus
However, for his part, the head of US diplomacy, Anthony Blinken expressed optimism that there will be consensus and eventually Turkey will accept the membership.
Specifically, he said he spoke with his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu, about Ankara's concerns about the accession of these two countries and is confident that a consensus can be reached.
At the same time, both Blinken and NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, pledged security for Finland and Sweden.
Stoltenberg, in fact, noted that Finland and Sweden's membership in NATO would make the countries more secure, and went on to say that efforts would be made to expedite Finland's and Sweden's applications and that efforts would be made to increase NATO's presence in the region while their applications were being processed, a process that could take up to a year.
Today, Finnish President Niinisto is due to meet Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Helsinki, along with other Republican senators, as he continues his campaign to secure bipartisan support for NATO membership. McConnell is due to visit Sweden, while the Finnish president will also make a two-day visit to Stockholm on Tuesday.
Indeed, the Nordic countries were widely backed by NATO foreign ministers meeting in Berlin on Saturday as policymakers seek to allay concerns that Turkey could derail their efforts, citing concerns that Sweden and Finland have shown support for Kurdish "terrorists." It should be noted that a precondition for new members joining the 30-member military bloc is unanimity of the existing members.
How will an angry Russia respond
For its part, of course, Russia feels threatened by this development. This is because the entry of Sweden and Finland will significantly expand NATO's borders with Russia.
Indeed, it has signaled that it will not leave it at that, even threatening/warning of nuclear war.
The armies of both countries are NATO-compatible and include large numbers of artillery and tanks. Finland, whose border with Russia is about 1,300 kilometers (1,300 miles) long, maintained a recruitment system, commanding a reserve of 900,000 soldiers and was able to deploy 280,000 of them in wartime. Sweden, on the other hand, reintroduced conscription in 2018.
On Saturday, President Niinisto had a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, during which he informed him that the Scandinavian country plans to seek NATO membership.
The move would be "wrong because there are no threats to Finland's security," Putin told the Finnish president, according to the Kremlin, adding that it could damage relations between the two countries.
Putin's reaction to Finland's plan was "milder than ever," Niinisto told reporters on Sunday. "He may want to avoid this issue becoming a topic of discussion in Russia," the Finnish president added.
Sweden: Reservations on nuclear and NATO permanent bases
[/P]"The position on NATO membership means that we are ready to abandon the security policy line that Sweden has maintained, in various forms, for 200 years," Swedish Prime Minister and Social Democrat chairwoman Magdalena Andersson told reporters in Stockholm, adding that Sweden needs the security guarantees that come with NATO membership.
"For us Social Democrats it is clear that our abstention from military commitments has served Sweden well, but our conclusion is that it will not serve us as well in the future." However, in a statement the ruling party said it would argue that Sweden expresses "unilateral reservations against the development of nuclear weapons and permanent bases on Swedish territory".
MPs from both countries are due to debate their applications today, with Sweden likely to apply for NATO membership in the coming days, according to media reports there.
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