Unthinkable as even two months ago, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but now possible, even very likely: Finland is this week entering a decisive phase in its bid to join NATO, with a final selection expected at the end of June.
LITTLE BY LITTLE ALL DEVELOPMENTS
The Scandinavian country's government will release a "white paper" - as far as is known - on Thursday on the consequences of the new face revealed by its neighbour Russia.
The document, commissioned in early March, will mark the start of a parliamentary process and a national dialogue that is likely to last several weeks, while the issue is also pressing for neighbouring Sweden.
"We will have thorough discussions" but they will not last "longer than necessary," Prime Minister Shana Marin said on Friday. "I think we will have concluded our discussions before the end of June," the young Social Democrat prime minister added.
"I expect the candidacy to be submitted sometime in May" so that a decision can be taken at the NATO meeting in Madrid at the end of June, former Prime Minister Alexander Stump, a supporter of membership, told Agence France-Presse.
Finland has multiplied consultations in recent weeks with virtually all countries in the 30-member organisation.
[BR][BR]Like neighbouring Sweden, the country has received clear assurances from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that the door is open and several expressions of support and encouragement, from the US to Germany through France and the UK.
The reversal of public opinion is spectacular: polls now suggest that 60% of Finns are in favour, twice as many as before the invasion. The percentage of those opposed has dropped to 20%.
Although not everyone has expressed a position, a clear majority of members of parliament are also in favour of NATO membership.
Like several of his colleagues, Centre Party MP Jonas Konta previously thought that we "didn't need" membership of the alliance, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine "irrevocably changed Europe" and "being a member of NATO would offer us more value in terms of security".
MPs who are against are few, among them Marcus Mustajarvi of the Left Alliance, who believes that Finland staying out of military alliances has brought "stability" to the whole of "northern Europe."
The question remains what Moscow's reaction will be.[/B] Vladimir Putin, for whom the red flag of NATO enlargement was one of the reasons he cited to justify the invasion of Ukraine, faces the possibility of a new 1,340-kilometer border with the Atlantic Alliance.
Moscow is threatening Helsinki and Stockholm with "serious consequences, political and military" if they join NATO, a warning it has repeated in recent weeks.
Finnish President Sauli Niiniste acknowledged in late March that bidding for NATO membership could trigger "impulsive" reactions from Moscow - government websites were targeted by cyber attacks the day before yesterday, Friday.
Unanimity of members is required for new NATO membership. Although Turkey's support seems a given, according to Helsinki, the position of Viktor Orban's Hungary is unclear.
According to Finnish Foreign Minister Peca Haavisto, NATO says it takes between four and 12 months to finalise a country's membership. The process took 13 for North Macedonia, the state that most recently joined the military alliance, in March 2020.
On paper, Finland of 5.5 million people is a dream candidate, with record numbers of candidates , a reflection of its constant vigilance against neighbouring Russia.
"We can mobilise from 280,000 to 300,000 men and women in a few days," explains Stump."
After ordering 64 US F-35 fighters in late 2021, Finland will increase its military budget by leaps and bounds, by 40%, by 2026 and will be above the 2% of GDP threshold recommended by NATO.
Once a Russian grand duchy until its independence in 1917, Finland was invaded by the erstwhile Soviet Union in 1939, when the three-month "Winter War" broke out in which the fierce resistance of the Finns has been paralleled by that of the Ukrainians.
After the new conflict, the so-called "war of continuity" (1941-1944) with the Soviets, the Scandinavian country opted for neutrality - forced on many - during the Cold War, the so-called "Finlandization", under the watchful eye of Moscow.
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