Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on an interim 15-point peace plan that includes a ceasefire and Russia's withdrawal if Kiev declares neutrality and accepts restrictions on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.
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The proposed deal, which Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed in full for the first time on Monday and which is brought to light by the Financial Times, involves Kiev giving up its plans to join NATO and pledgingnot to host foreign military bases or weapons in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK and Turkey.
The nature of Western guarantees for Ukrainian security - and Moscow's acceptance of them - could still prove to be a major obstacle to any deal, as could the status of the Ukrainian territories seized by Russia in 2014.
Although Moscow and Kiev both said Wednesday that they had made progress on the terms of an agreement, Ukrainian officials remain skeptical whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is committed to a peace deal and worry that Moscow could buy time to regroup its forces and resume its offensive.
Mykhailo Podolyak, senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told the Financial Times that any deal would involve "Russian Federation troops in any case leaving the territories of Ukraine" occupied since the start of the invasion on 24 February - namely southern regions along the Azov and Black Seas, as well as territories east and north of Kiev.
Ukraine would retain its armed forces, but would be obliged to remain outside military alliances, such as NATO, and refrain from hosting foreign military bases on its territory.
Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters on Wednesday that neutrality for Ukraine based on the status of Austria or Sweden was a scenario. "This option is really being discussed now and it is an option that can be considered neutral," Peskov said.
Sergei Lavrov
, Russia's foreign minister, said "absolutely concrete wording" was "close to being agreed" in the negotiations.
Despite progress in peace talks, Ukrainian cities were heavily shelled for the third straight night, while Kiev said it was launching a counter-offensive against Russian invaders.
In a speech to members of Congress on Wednesday, Zelensky appealed to the US to impose a no-fly zone or provide fighter jets or other means to repel Russia's attack on his country and to impose tougher economic sanctions on Moscow.
In a dramatic appeal, Zelensky said Ukraine needed America's support after Russia had launched a "brutal attack on our values."
Although Ukraine's constitution obliges it to seek NATO membership, Zelensky and his associates are increasingly downplaying Ukraine's chances of joining the transatlantic military alliance, a prospect Russia considers a challenge. "As soon as a serious war started in Europe, NATO quickly stepped aside," Podolyak said."
We are proposing a "Ukrainian model of security guarantees," which entails the direct and legally institutionalized participation in the conflict of a number of guarantor countries on Ukraine's side if someone again encroaches on its territorial integrity," he added.
Ukraine, Podolyak added, as part of any agreement "will definitely retain its own army." He also downplayed the importance of banning foreign bases in Ukraine, saying this is already ruled out by Ukrainian law.
Two of the people said that the alleged agreement also includes provisions to secure rights for the Russian language in Ukraine, where it is widely spoken, although Ukrainian is the only official language. Russia has portrayed its invasion as an attempt to protect Russian-speakers in Ukraine from what it claims is "genocide" by "neo-Nazis."
Podolyak said that "humanitarian issues, including language issues, are discussed only through the prism of Ukraine's exclusive interests."
The biggest sticking point remains Russia's demand that Ukraine recognize the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two separatist states in the eastern border region of Donbass.
Ukraine has so far refused, but is willing to discuss the issue piecemeal, Podolyak said.
"The disputed and conflicting territories [ARE] a separate matter. So far, we are talking about a guaranteed withdrawal from the territories occupied since the start of the military operation on February 24," when Russia's invasion began, he said.
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