European concerns about food security are deepening, more than two months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and while the European Union did not give in yesterday to Russian blackmail to pay for gas in rubles. Although top European officials guarantee that there will be a sufficient supply of agricultural products on the Old Continent, their affordability due to high costs and the scarcity of Russian fertilisers are giving second thoughts, at a time when Moscow's military operations are directly targeting the Ukrainians' grain infrastructure, having imposed a naval 'blockade' on Odessa at the same time.
As the daily consequences of Russia's invasion become more and more apparent as the months go by, astonishment and concern was caused by German Interior Minister Nancy Fischer's plea yesterday to her country's citizens to go on food rationing for ten days, warning them at the same time of power cuts and possible cyber-attacks.
In an interview, the minister, who comes from the ranks of the SPD, said, according to Handelsblatt, that "German citizens would be well advised to be stocked up in their homes with basic food supplies." Asked to comment on the general situation following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Fisher explained that "we are here to deal with various crises, pandemics, threats of war" by proposing protective measures, including "food, medicine or medical supplies", she said.
More specifically, "if the power goes out for a longer period of time, it is certainly useful to have an emergency supply at home," the German Interior Minister described, while disclosing that "there are still 599 shelters in Germany" and leaving open the window to activate some "that are used differently today."
Emergency list
Following up on the "call" for vigilance by German citizens, Fischer did not hesitate to list the emergency supplies that German households should make, while recommending calm instead of panic. Referring, however, to the special list drawn up by the German Civil Protection, the Minister said it included "10 litres of water and liquids, 3.5 kg of cereals, bread, potatoes, rice, pasta, 1.5 kg of meat, fish and eggs". She raised the national alert levels even higher after observing that "complex, transnational cyber-attack threats can only be effectively addressed by the federal government," having previously predicted a "high" risk of Russian cyber-attacks due to the war in Ukraine.
Before, however, new forms of hybrid warfare such as cyber warfare, the Ukrainians are faced with "traditional" Russian military operations, which, "armed with hunger", are aimed at the total destruction of their crops and granaries. By way of example, two grain silos were hit by Russian missiles in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine's third largest city, on May Day alone, while just yesterday a Russian missile hit an agricultural elevator in a grain warehouse in the same city.
Naval "blockade"
Although it is almost discounted that the shortage of Ukrainian grain may lead to a global food shortage, the goal of the Russian Armed Forces, however, is to "suffocate" the Ukrainians with food in order to more quickly break down their resistance. The naval 'blockade' of Odessa, which is one of the world's most important grain exporters, seems to be part of the same strategy, according to David Beasley, Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Programme.
Having settled in Odessa, the head of the UN Program - speaking to CBS news - sounded the alarm regarding the serious consequences for global grain supplies as long as the period during which the city's port remains closed is prolonged. Given that Ukraine is "the world's basket case", i.e. the 4th country in the world in wheat and corn production and the 1st in sunflower oil, he estimated that the food grown in the country is capable of feeding 400 million people, the poorest of whom, however, will almost inevitably find themselves in the coming period facing the inability to obtain even basic goods due to the rally in prices as a result of the war.
At the same time, Ukraine's "winter wheat" is in the war zone, and the impossibility of harvesting it (analysts estimate that only 30% will be harvested) reduces the future quantities available worldwide. As for the new crop, even if it were spared from Russian missiles, its development requires synthetic nitrogen fertilisers, which until recently were almost exclusively supplied by Moscow to Kiev, which, of course, has ceased to be the case, even though Russian fertilisers are not subject to international sanctions. In everyday life, moreover, even the storage sacks for wheat, pulses and oats have for two and a half months been filled only with sand, to be used in fortifications, depriving them of the simplest possibility of being harvested.
Danger signal from Zelensky
The dramatic situation in which Ukraine's agricultural production has found itself, which will inevitably push up international food prices even further, was described yesterday by the country's President, Volodymyr Zelensky.
"The world is now facing a food crisis as Russia blocks vital Ukrainian grain" through the blockade of Black Sea ports, the Ukrainian President said yesterday, resulting in a food crisis that will affect Europe, Asia and Africa. In fact, it is estimated that some 4.5 million tonnes of grain are currently blocked in Black Sea ports, while Russian forces are looting Ukrainian agricultural machinery.
For example, 27 pieces of agricultural machinery (seeders and harvesters) were stolen by Russian soldiers from Melitopol and taken to Chechnya, where they were found to be locked up. "The worst will be famine, which is approaching for many countries. . . we do not know what harvest we will have and whether we will be able to export it. Prices are already rising," warns President Zelenski.
The first "victims"
In this light, at the top of the list of countries directly threatened by the food crisis are Somalia, Egypt and Tunisia, since they import 80% of their grain from Kiev, followed - secondarily - by Lebanon, which imports 60% of its needs from the two previous countries. The Gulf countries also import 85% of their cereal consumption, except that they have long been prepared for this eventuality, with Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates leading the way, while Saudi Arabia appears more unprepared.
Any level of preparation against a global food crisis, however, is an equation with many imponderables, as Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 30% of global demand for wheat and barley, with 36 countries (such as Indonesia, Pakistan and Turkey) around the world as "customers". Already, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned last March that the Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens to lead to "a global hunger crisis", while analysts on the other side of the Atlantic note that global food prices are already "up 34% from a year ago" and while the war is still raging.
"Mammoth Package" from Congress
The food security dimension is also behind the supplemental request sent by the Biden administration to the US Congress to approve an additional $33 billion in humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine. "We really need this financial support from Congress to be able to meet urgent food needs so that we don't see the cascading deadly consequences of Russia's war spread to Africa and beyond," said USAID chief Samantha Power, while also noting a severe shortage of fertilizer.
The fertilizer problem is made even more complex by Russia's donor countries. Moscow may be a major exporter of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers internationally, but equally important for conventional agriculture are potash fertilizers, which are heavily exported by Belarus, which has been doing Putin's bidding since the invasion of Ukraine.
EU: Sufficiency yes, precision no
In the case of the EU, food is not expected to be absent from European shelves, but for a significant proportion of consumers it may not be out of reach due to precision, according to top European officials. In terms of sufficiency, given that the EU is a long-standing exporter of agri-food products, shortages are expected to be limited, but prices are expected to be very high.
The first "bill" will be paid by European farmers and livestock farmers, as the EU imports 30% of its synthetic nitrogen fertilisers from Russia and 27% of its potash fertilisers from Belarus. At the same time, however, it raises issues of accessibility to basic goods for the poorest, European households, which has been of serious concern to the 27 Member States since the end of last March.
Food Security Mechanism
In particular, the European Commission announced on 23 March a package of "short- and medium-term actions to strengthen global food security and support EU farmers and consumers in the face of rising food prices and input costs such as energy and fertilisers", according to a statement, pressing the "button" of preparedness for a possible food crisis.
Among the measures announced by Brussels, the activation of the newly created European Food Security Crisis Preparedness and Response Mechanism (EFSCM) stands out, which gathers data from European and national administrations, as well as from private actors, on the entire supply chain. The Mechanism has already been tasked to undertake "a thorough mapping of risks and vulnerabilities in the EU food supply chain, followed by recommendations and appropriate mitigation measures", if necessary.
"Although the EU itself is not facing a food security risk, we must continue to address food affordability issues and take measures to make agriculture and food supply chains more resilient and sustainable in future crises," said Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis, while announcing €500 million in support measures for food security. for producers most affected by the consequences of the war in Ukraine, together with derogations from the planting rules previously in force.
The green light for additional measures in the same sector was given the following day (24 March 2022) by the 27 leaders of the EU Member States at the Summit on that day, authorising the European Commission "to prioritise work on global food security and global food affordability, in particular by supporting food security and agriculture in Ukraine and in the most vulnerable and exposed third countries".
Given that Ukraine accounted for 36% of the EU's cereal imports, "Russia's invasion of Ukraine increases pressure on food systems and threatens millions around the world with hunger. We are now at a tipping point and urgent action is needed," said Crisis Management Commissioner Janez Lenarcic, while MEPs are urging the EU to increase domestic agricultural production in the face of potential shortages of basic foodstuffs, including using the Union's €479 million crisis reserve.
Macron's 'famine'
Earlier and in reaction from Brussels, French President, Emmanuel Macron predicted that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would lead to a food crisis in the next 12-18 months in Africa and the Middle East.
Speaking in early March to G7 leaders, President Macron called on the world's most powerful economies to undertake investment initiatives aimed at mitigating the growing food crisis. "We are entering an unprecedented food crisis," Emmanuel Macron said, adding that it is "imperative that Russia does not create a famine."
The war "is making it difficult for countries to obtain grain and cereals in general," the French president argued along the same lines, proposing "an emergency plan to release stocks in the event of a crisis to avoid any shortages and moderate price increases," he said. The French President's "Plan B" provided for a 50% reduction in the use of pesticides by 2030 and chemical fertilisers by 20% respectively, together with a commitment "not to impose restrictions on the export of agricultural raw materials".
In Northern Italy, however, supermarkets are recording shortages of pasta due to the insecurity of citizens in the face of the possibility of a global food crisis, while consumers in France and Spain have been stockpiling large quantities of food in the last two months.
Source: protothema.gr
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