Finland's move to join NATO has, as expected, raised questions within both the political system and society. In an attempt to allay concerns, the prime minister, referring to a possible Russian act of aggression in response to the alliance's expansion to Russia's borders, said: "If they attack us we will have help, if they attack others we will help."
"Together with Denmark and Iceland, Norway is ready to help its Scandinavian neighbours with all necessary means if they are attacked on their territory before they become NATO members," Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gar Stere said. All these statements add to the climate of insecurity. Moreover, Moscow has made no secret of the fact that it considers Finland's accession a hostile act and therefore states that it will react, without specifying how.
Russian media, apparently not unbeknownst to the government, consider it possible that Moscow may deploy tactical nuclear weapons on its European borders, namely on the border with Finland tomorrow and of course on the border with the Baltic Republics. This, of course, in case both Finland and Sweden allow NATO bases to be established on their territory. It should be noted that while the Swedish government has stated that it will not accept the installation of nato bases and nuclear weapons on its territory, the Finnish government has refrained from making a similar statement, with all that this implies.
The choice of Helsinki and Stockholm to join the Atlantic Alliance may have caused near-enthusiasm in Washington and other European capitals, it may have been discounted that the accession would be carried out by a fast track process, but all of them seem to have forgotten, or at least underestimated, Ankara. While it had initially appeared that Turkey was making an initial reservation to extract some quid pro quo, yesterday Tayyip Erdogan came along to raise the bar considerably.
The Turkish president, in a clear act of political blackmail, directly threatened to blow up the accession of the two Scandinavian states by vetoing the process, as he has the institutional right to do. The Turkish side warned the governments of Sweden and Finland "not to bother to travel to Turkey to persuade Ankara to approve their request."
In Washington, they expected Tayyip Erdogan to bargain, but not to this extent. They may have been taken by surprise and are not hiding their displeasure, in fact their anger, but the "good cards" are in Ankara's hands. It is the Americans and NATO who are in a hurry and in a big hurry, not the Turks, who have both the institutional space and, it seems, the determination to pull the rope until they are given quid pro quo, and they will ask for a lot. They are acutely aware that now is their opportunity and Tayyip Erdogan wants to make the most of it.
White House sources channel to the media that an explanation will be sought from the Turkish president during this weekend's NATO meeting in Berlin. It does not seem, however, that Ankara is sweating from such warning leaks. It even made sure to remind Helsinki and Stockholm that they have not responded to Turkey's request to hand over 33 individuals that the Erdogan regime claims are linked to terrorist organizations, namely the Kurdish PKK and Imam Gulen's network.
Many in the West believe that Turkey will eventually back down, but avoid mentioning the quid pro quo it will have secured. Ankara believes it has been given an excellent opportunity to force Western countries to treat PKK members as terrorists by handing them over to Turkey or expelling them from their territory.
It is telling that the Erdogan regime has accused the two Scandinavian countries of having supported the Kurds over time, giving them asylum and even war material, which is questionable. He will therefore demand that they radically change their attitude. The Turkish demands, however, do not end here. Ankara's attitude is reminiscent of the proverb 'we found a priest, let's bury five or six'. Behind the scenes, it will ask Washington not to block Turkish intervention against the Kurds in northern Syria. He will also demand that any embargo imposed on the sale of Western weapons systems and special equipment essential to the Turkish war industry be completely lifted.
The second condition to Washington is to agree (the Biden administration has already agreed) to the sale of 40 latest-generation F-16 fighters and the upgrade of 80 Turkish older ones. He may also add the demand that Turkey return to the F-35 fighter program, from which it was excluded due to the supply of the Russian S-400.
Finally, he is very likely to add Greek-Turkish issues to the menu, focusing on the demilitarization of the Greek islands, to which the Americans have not shown that they have no objection. The fact that the US and NATO are expressing their certainty that in the end Turkey will not block the accession of Finland and Sweden is an indication that the bargaining has already begun and that in this game Tayyip Erdogan has the upper hand. The Finnish Parliament is considering the membership application for approval by vote. The request is expected to be approved by an overwhelming majority. Neighbouring Sweden is on the same wavelength. It is recalled that any decision on NATO enlargement requires approval by all 30 member states of the Alliance and ratification by their parliaments.
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